ProVoC

PROportions of Variants of Concern using counts, coverage, and a lineage definition matrix.

Builds and diagnoses a model based on:

• Counts: The number of times a given mutation was observed.
• Coverage: The number of times the position of a given mutation was read.
• Mutation names: whatever format you want, as long as they match the names in the lineage definition matrix.
• Lineage definition matrix: A matrix where the row names are lineage, the column names are mutations, and the entries are 1 if the row lineage has the column mutation and 0 otherwise.
  • For example: Usher Barcodes
  • All current methods accept fractional entries.

Usage

There are two steps to using this software: create the lineage definitions and run the model(s).

If not specified, the lineage definitions uses hardcoded definitions from the cov-lineages/constellations repo, which contains the representative mutations that were identified by the PANGO team. The lineage definitions must have names that match what exists in the data.

#library(provoc)
devtools::load_all()

ℹ Loading provoc

data(Baaijens)
b1 <- Baaijens [Baaijens$sra == Baaijens$sra[1], ]
b1$mutation <- parse_mutations(b1$label)

head(b1[, c("count", "coverage", "mutation", "label")])

  count coverage        mutation   label
1 14458    14818      aa:S:D614G ~23403G
2 10431    32699         C12025T ~12025T
3   759     9577         G29266A ~29266A
4 23329    23690  aa:orf1a:T265I  ~1059T
5  6935    32631       aa:M:R44S ~26654T
6 13866    27715 aa:orf1a:L3352F ~10319T

The main fitting function is designed to mimic glm(), with formula notation that emphasizes the connection to binomial GLM models. The bootstrap_samples argument is optional, and is used to calculate confidence intervals and correlation of the parameters.

res <- provoc(
    formula = count / coverage ~ B.1.1.7 + B.1.429 + B.1.617.2 + 
        B.1.427 + AY.4 + P.1,
    data = b1,
    bootstrap_samples = 100)
res

Call: count/coverage ~ B.1.1.7 + B.1.429 + B.1.617.2 + B.1.427 + AY.4 + 
    P.1

Mutations in lineage definitions:  325 
Mutations used in analysis/mutations in data:
74/772

All models converged.

Top 5 lineages:
     rho   ci_low ci_high   lineage group
5  0.515 5.09e-01 0.52084      AY.4     1
2   0.33 3.23e-01 0.33823   B.1.429     1
4  0.124 1.18e-01 0.13045   B.1.427     1
1  0.008 7.08e-03 0.00805   B.1.1.7     1
3 <0.001 1.36e-09 0.00007 B.1.617.2     1

We have created a class for provoc objects with convenient methods. For example, plotting the results is achieved as follows:

plot(res)

We use the convention of autoplot() as a function that creates a ggplot2 plot based on a particular type of data. This allows for all of ggplot2’s fanciness on top of a pre-made plot.

library(ggplot2)
autoplot(res) +
    theme_bw() +
    labs(title = "Results for one sample")

plot_resids(res)

summary(res)

Call:
count/coverage ~ B.1.1.7 + B.1.429 + B.1.617.2 + B.1.427 + AY.4 + 
    P.1

Deviance Residuals:
    Min.  1st Qu.   Median     Mean  3rd Qu.     Max. 
-10.3051  -1.9998   0.0000  -0.7594   0.0000   8.1775 

Mutations in lineage definitions: 325 
Mutations used in analysis/mutations in data:
74/772

Coefficients:
           rho       ci_low      ci_high   lineage
1 7.599439e-03 7.081703e-03 8.050048e-03   B.1.1.7
2 3.301205e-01 3.234749e-01 3.382267e-01   B.1.429
3 9.512833e-09 1.362086e-09 6.996912e-05 B.1.617.2
4 1.242872e-01 1.184034e-01 1.304502e-01   B.1.427
5 5.150303e-01 5.086749e-01 5.208370e-01      AY.4

Correlation of coefficients:
              B.1.1.7     B.1.429  B.1.617.2     B.1.427        AY.4
B.1.1.7    1.00000000  0.01371296  0.2091873 -0.02628246 -0.18810506
B.1.429    0.01371296  1.00000000  0.1868977 -0.89024937  0.03164538
B.1.617.2  0.20918734  0.18689767  1.0000000 -0.16716463 -0.11556907
B.1.427   -0.02628246 -0.89024937 -0.1671646  1.00000000  0.03870984
AY.4      -0.18810506  0.03164538 -0.1155691  0.03870984  1.00000000

plot_lineages(res)

Multiple Samples

# First thirty samples from Baaijens
b2 <- Baaijens [Baaijens$sra %in% unique(Baaijens$sra)[1:30], ]
b2$mutations <- parse_mutations(b2$label)
head(b1[, c("count", "coverage", "mutation", "label", "sra")])

  count coverage        mutation   label         sra
1 14458    14818      aa:S:D614G ~23403G SRR15505102
2 10431    32699         C12025T ~12025T SRR15505102
3   759     9577         G29266A ~29266A SRR15505102
4 23329    23690  aa:orf1a:T265I  ~1059T SRR15505102
5  6935    32631       aa:M:R44S ~26654T SRR15505102
6 13866    27715 aa:orf1a:L3352F ~10319T SRR15505102

Note the “by” argument below. This tells provoc() to fit the model separately to each sample defined by the by column. Since there are 30 samples, the model takes a while to run, hence why there are no bootstrap samples here.

system.time(
    res <- provoc(
        formula = count / coverage ~ B.1.1.7 + B.1.429 + B.1.617.2 +
            B.1.427 + AY.4 + P.1,
        data = b2, 
        by = "sra",
        bootstrap_samples = 0)
)

[1] "Attempt 10 of 20."
[1] "Attempt 20 of 20."

   user  system elapsed 
  1.819   0.020   1.848 

res

Call: count/coverage ~ B.1.1.7 + B.1.429 + B.1.617.2 + B.1.427 + AY.4 + 
    P.1

Mutations in lineage definitions:  325 
Summary of percent of mutations in data used:
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
0.09585 0.09585 0.09585 0.09585 0.09585 0.09585 

All models converged.

Top 6 lineages:
      rho ci_low ci_high lineage       group avg_spot_len sample_name     bases
61  0.899     NA      NA B.1.1.7 SRR15505114          302         FX2 385650980
15  0.846     NA      NA    AY.4 SRR15505104          302         DR2 412520222
139  0.84     NA      NA B.1.427 SRR15505129          302         FE1 339620744
114 0.709     NA      NA B.1.427 SRR15505124          302         FK2 433136554
50  0.695     NA      NA    AY.4 SRR15505111          302         GC1 484282368
35  0.687     NA      NA    AY.4 SRR15505108          302         GF2 615765014
     bioproject       date
61  PRJNA741211 2021-04-11
15  PRJNA741211 2021-01-15
139 PRJNA741211 2021-03-16
114 PRJNA741211 2021-03-24
50  PRJNA741211 2021-04-17
35  PRJNA741211 2021-04-23

plot_lineages(res)

The plotting functions above work as expected.

plot(res)

plot_resids(res)

autoplot(res)

In addition, we’ve added special functionality for data with a “date” column:

theme_set(theme_bw())
res$date <- lubridate::ymd(res$date)
autoplot(res, date_col = "date")

Since autoplot() returns a ggplot2 object, you can use all your knowledge of ggplot2:

autoplot(res, date_col = "date") +
    facet_wrap(~ lineage, nrow = 1) +
    labs(title = "Proportions of Lineages over Time") +
    theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1))

Finally, the residual plot still works (although it’s a bunch of samples stuffed into one plot, so its use is limited.)

plot_resids(res)

Searching for Different Lineages

library(patchwork)
res_with <- provoc(cbind(count, coverage) ~ B.1.1.7 + B.1.429 + B.1.617.2 + B.1.427,
    data = b2, by = "sra",
    verbose = FALSE, bootstrap_samples = 0)
res_with$date <- lubridate::ymd(res_with$date)

res_without <- provoc(cbind(count, coverage) ~ B.1.429 + B.1.617.2 + B.1.427,
    data = b2, by = "sra",
    verbose = FALSE, bootstrap_samples = 0)
res_without$date <- lubridate::ymd(res_without$date)

g_with <- autoplot(res_with, date_col = "date") +
    scale_fill_manual(values = 2:5)
g_without <- autoplot(res_without, date_col = "date") +
    scale_fill_manual(values = 3:5)

g_with / g_without

Notice two important points:

1. Since proportions can’t sum to greater than one, including B.1.1.7 when it should be excluded means it will take away from the other lineages!
   • Erroneously increasing one means decreasing true lineages.
2. Due to shared mutations, excluding B.1.1.7 when it should be included means other lineages increase to make up for it.
   • Erroneously decreasing one means increasing other lineages.

provoc also accepts the ~ . formula notation. This is useful if you want to manipulate the lineages in the lineage definitions matrix, which is easier programmatically than dealing with formulae in R. The filter_lineages() function will remove mutations that are not present in any of the remaining lineages.

lineage_defs <- provoc::usher_barcodes(path = "working") |>
    filter_lineages(c("B.1.1.7", "B.1.617.2", "B.1.427",
        "B.1.429", "AY.4", "BA.4", "BA.5"))

With these definitions, we can just use all of them:

res_all <- provoc(count / coverage ~ ., data = b1, 
    bootstrap_samples = 0,
    lineage_defs = lineage_defs)

plot_lineages(res_all)

Version Roadmap

• 0.5: Current version
• 0.6: Refactor and add methods
  • Standardize to use “lineage” everywhere
  • General ease of use for fitting multiple models, checking lineage definitions, and checking diagnostics.
  • Correct documentation errors and vestiges
• 0.7: Better handling of multiple samples
  • Proper diagnostics, easily applied to all samples
  • multiprovoc class so functions know how to handle things?
• 0.8: Multiple methods
  • Freyja and AlCoV (possibly others) as first-class objects, with access to methods for provoc objects.
    • Potentially loading in Freyja output files as provoc objects
  • Stacking (cbind()) models for ease of comparison
  • Import and process iVar data.
  • Main function works for multiple methods and data sources.
  • Unified parse_mutations() function with minimal user input.
• 0.9: The shiny minor version
  • Shiny app to interact with lineage defitions
  • Shiny app to interact with results
• 1.0: First major release
  • All functions unit-tested and debugged
  • Vignettes fully built
  • All documentation up-to-date and built via pkgdown
  • [ ]