Lifetime Value Forecasting

Lifetime Value Forecasting for digital focused products. The classes in this folder are meant to replicate the data commonly seen when advertising in fremium digital products, where the vast majority of users don't generate any revenue, and the users that do often follow a long-tailed distribution, almost (if not actually) resembling a pareto distribution

PyData Amsterdam 2023 - Forecasting Customer Lifetime Value with PySTAN

In September 2023, I had the opportunity to share how to forecast Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) using PySTAN, gave the reason why it matters to estimate distributions and not only point estimated when predicting CLTV for marketing campaigns, and compared PySTAN and PyMC in terms of computational performance.

All the content shared in the presentation used the code available in the repository. More specifically

PyData Amsterdam 2023 - Forecasting Lifetime for every day in the dataframe: shows how to forecast LTV for each day in the dataset
PyData Amsterdam 2023 - Benchmar and src/Benchmark.py holds the code for running the benchmark between the different implementations of a gaussian random walk in PyMC and the benchmark betwene PyMC and PySTAN
/results folder holds the results of the benchmark above used to generate the plots for the presentation

Name		Name	Last commit message	Last commit date
Latest commit History 16 Commits
.ipynb_checkpoints		.ipynb_checkpoints
__pycache__		__pycache__
images		images
results		results
src		src
tutorials/.ipynb_checkpoints		tutorials/.ipynb_checkpoints
Example - Kalman Filter on Single Time Series.ipynb		Example - Kalman Filter on Single Time Series.ipynb
Example - Optimal Bid under Uncertainty.ipynb		Example - Optimal Bid under Uncertainty.ipynb
Example - PYMC Gaussian Random Walk.ipynb		Example - PYMC Gaussian Random Walk.ipynb
Example - PySTAN Gaussian Random Walk.ipynb		Example - PySTAN Gaussian Random Walk.ipynb
Example - Volume by CPI.ipynb		Example - Volume by CPI.ipynb
Forecasting Customer Lifetime Value - Forecasting LTV.ipynb		Forecasting Customer Lifetime Value - Forecasting LTV.ipynb
Forecasting Customer Lifetime Value - Why Uncertainty Matters.ipynb		Forecasting Customer Lifetime Value - Why Uncertainty Matters.ipynb
PyData Amsterdam 2023 - Benchmark.ipynb		PyData Amsterdam 2023 - Benchmark.ipynb
PyData Amsterdam 2023 - Forecasting Lifetime for every day in the dataframe.ipynb		PyData Amsterdam 2023 - Forecasting Lifetime for every day in the dataframe.ipynb
README.md		README.md
__init__.py		__init__.py

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Lifetime Value Forecasting

PyData Amsterdam 2023 - Forecasting Customer Lifetime Value with PySTAN

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