cloud_storage: warnings on topic creation

[jcsp]

When creating a topic with shadow indexing enabled, many warning-severity messages are sent to the log (successful creation should not output any warnings).

Some of these are the same messages as during leadership changes (#3310)

WARN  2021-12-20 10:51:59,779 [shard 14] archival - [fiber1 kafka/verifier-1k/33] - ntp_archiver_service.cc:356 - archival metadata STM update failed
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:00,817 [shard 5] archival - [fiber1 kafka/verifier-1k/47] - ntp_archiver_service.cc:356 - archival metadata STM update failed
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:03,361 [shard 15] archival - [fiber1 kafka/verifier-1k/260] - ntp_archiver_service.cc:356 - archival metadata STM update failed
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:03,407 [shard 14] archival - [fiber1 kafka/verifier-1k/162] - ntp_archiver_service.cc:356 - archival metadata STM update failed
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:09,362 [shard 9] cloud_storage - [fiber1~12~0|1|9940ms] - remote.cc:224 - Downloading manifest from {violet-desert-kangaroo-vectorized-archival} {key_not_found}, manifest at {"00000000/meta/kafka/verifier-1k/120_40/manifest.json"} not available
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:09,380 [shard 0] cloud_storage - [fiber1~12~0|1|9960ms] - remote.cc:224 - Downloading manifest from {violet-desert-kangaroo-vectorized-archival} {key_not_found}, manifest at {"20000000/meta/kafka/verifier-1k/262_40/manifest.json"} not available
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:09,411 [shard 8] cloud_storage - [fiber1~17~0|1|9950ms] - remote.cc:224 - Downloading manifest from {violet-desert-kangaroo-vectorized-archival} {key_not_found}, manifest at {"a0000000/meta/kafka/verifier-1k/182_40/manifest.json"} not available
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:11,545 [shard 13] archival - [fiber1 kafka/verifier-1k/415] - ntp_archiver_service.cc:356 - archival metadata STM update failed
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:12,899 [shard 8] archival - [fiber1 kafka/verifier-1k/182] - ntp_archiver_service.cc:356 - archival metadata STM update failed
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:12,918 [shard 10] archival - [fiber1 kafka/verifier-1k/346] - ntp_archiver_service.cc:356 - archival metadata STM update failed
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:18,625 [shard 6] cloud_storage - [fiber1~10~0|1|9950ms] - remote.cc:224 - Downloading manifest from {violet-desert-kangaroo-vectorized-archival} {key_not_found}, manifest at {"a0000000/meta/kafka/verifier-1k/81_40/manifest.json"} not available
WARN  2021-12-20 10:52:18,629 [shard 3] cloud_storage - [fiber1~10~0|1|9950ms] - remote.cc:224 - Downloading manifest from {violet-desert-kangaroo-vectorized-archival} {key_not_found}, manifest at {"80000000/meta/kafka/verifier-1k/107_40/manifest.json"} not available

[LenaAn]

Logs from archival are fixed after #3371, logs from cloud_storage appear because cloud_storage starts before manifest is available in S3. One idea is to set a timeout before remote starts requesting manifest, but I'm not sure it's worth it

[jcsp]

For the manifest download warning, what about suppressing the message when the topic's high water mark is at zero (i.e. freshly created)?