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Created a model based on original SIR to predict and control virus spread.

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rosasalberto/Covid-19-Model

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New Covid-19_model

equations

Based on the SIR model, but with additions of:

  • Delays
  • Deaths
  • Variable transmission rate, dependent from government action U

State Variables:

  • S = Subsceptible
  • I = Infective
  • R = Removed
  • D = Death
  • Pd = Probability of death
  • Tr = Transmision rate

constant parameters:

  • a = number of days for the infected to show sintoms
  • b = number of days for the infected to begin infecting
  • maxtr = maximum tr, normally before quarantine
  • mintr = minimum tr, normally when severe quarantine
  • rr = recovery rate
  • maxdr = maximum death rate, normally when sanitary system are collapsed
  • mindr = minimum death rate, normally when the sanitary system is not collapsed.
  • Icol = Infected rate to collapse the sanitary system.
  • inf_test = rate of tested from infected.

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Created a model based on original SIR to predict and control virus spread.

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