The Wall Street Journal and CNN released investigations of the Al-Ahli Hospital blast based in large part on a rocket recorded live by Al Jazeera. Both reports came to the same conclusion: that footage shows a misfired Palestinian rocket. This is factually incorrect. The footage shows an Israeli Iron Dome interceptor missile 1 launched near Alumim, Israel intercepting an unseen rocket roughly between Nahal Oz and Kfar Aza in Israel. This Iron Dome interception is not directly related to the blast at Al-Ahli in Gaza -- it is too far away to be relevant.
Note that this does not prove or disprove any cause of the Al-Ahli hospital blast. It only shows that the missile that is the focus of the WSJ and CNN investigations is not related to the hospital blast 2.
aljazeera-missile.mp4
Above: Excerpt from Al Jazeera footage showing the relevant missile.
The WSJ also used footage of the same "rocket" from a webcam in Bat Yam. They claim it shows a launch from Gaza, but basic geolocation shows that the launch occurs in Israel, not in Gaza. In other words, WSJ's "failed rocket" is an Iron Dome interceptor missile, likely successfully intercepting a rocket headed in the direction of Sa'ad.
wsj-excerpt.mp4
Above: Excerpt from WSJ video analysis
The "rocket", which is seen changing trajectory, is a highly maneuverable Iron Dome Tamir interceptor missile. It is not a "misfired" Palestinian rocket. It shows a normal Iron Dome interception that happens to occur a few seconds before the hospital blast:
- The "rocket" changes direction mid-air, which is typical of Iron Dome interceptions
- The launch occurs in Israel
- The launch location appears to be an Iron Dome launch site.
The Bat Yam webcam recorded the missile launch from about 60 km away. (The webcam is mislabeled as "Ashdod"). The below image shows multiple frames overlayed to make the launch trajectory more visible (18:59:24-18:59:29).
Two known reference points are used: a building in Bat Yam and a blinking light at the port of Ashdod 3. The heading from the webcam to those two locations can be measured on Google Earth. The heading to the missile launch location is found by interpolating between the two known reference points. This gives a heading of 198.4° 4 from the webcam to the missile origin.
Hamdan Dahdouh's video captures the launch of the missile from the point of view of the Al Taaba tower in Gaza. From that vantage point, it is almost directly aligned with the Al-Ahli hospital, which makes locating the launch origin easier. Note that even though the launch is aligned with the hospital (from the camera's point of view), it does not occur near the hospital. The launch occurs about 7 km east of the hospital.
Plotting the intersection of these two sight lines gives an estimated launch origin a bit north of Alumim in Israel at approximately 31.458249122328205, 34.520383668757326. Oliver Alexander notes that it looks like an Iron Dome site. Israel's government mapping website conspicuously blurs the location, which also suggests an Iron Dome launch site.
The Bat Yam webcam also captures the mid-air explosion. We can use the same reference points to get a heading of approximately 199.3° from the webcam.
Hamdan Dahdouh's video also captures the mid-air explosion. The two reference points used are the nearby Abu Khadra mosque and the Al-Ahli hospital.
Plotting the intersection of these two sight lines gives an estimated mid-air explosion (i.e., Iron Dome interception) between Kfar Aza and Nahal Oz at approximately 31.478486074237395, 34.51718059759294.
The Bat Yam webcam captures the explosion about 4° above the horizon and 62 km away. That gives an estimate of 4.3 km high.
Hamdan Dahdouh's video captures the explosion about 36.7° above the horizon and 7.5 km away. That gives an estimate of 4.5 km high.
The interception is 6 km along the map and about 4.4 km high, which gives a total distance of about 7.4 km when accounting for altitude of the interception.
No. The hospital blast occurred 7.3 seconds after the Iron Dome interception and 7.4 km away. That would require debris traveling at an average speed of over 1,000 m/s (~3x speed of sound) over a long distance.
Ella Shartiel provides synchronized footage. Additionally, in all the videos the hospital blast occurs 7.3 seconds after the interceptor detonates. (The blast is faintly visible at 45.6 seconds in the Bat Yam webcam.)
The plotted interception point lies close to an IDF radar track of a rocket launched in the direction of Sa'ad.
A distant explosion can be heard near the end of Hamdan Dahdouh's video (at 45.8 seconds). This occurs 26.3 seconds after the Iron Dome interceptor is seen detonating. The speed of sound in air is ~343 m/sec; at 4.4 km high it is ~322 m/sec. Assuming an average speed of 332 m/sec, sound travels 8.7 km in 26.3 seconds. This matches the estimate for the interception: it occurs 8.7 km from the camera (7.5 km along the ground and 4.4 km high).
boom.mp4
The videos are in the https://github.com/sam158209/al-ahli-hospital-blast/tree/main/data folder.
- Oliver Alexander reached a similar conclusion: that the "rocket" in the Al Jazeera footage is an Iron Dome interceptor missile.
- fdov identified and located the flashing Ashdod port light, which is a useful reference in the Bat Yam webcam footage. Here is his working document where he also reached a similar conclusion.
- Benjamin Pittet located the hospital explosion, nearby Wafaa Medical Center, and mosque from the Al Jazeera footage.
- Many members of the Bellingcat Discord provided links to relevant media.
Footnotes
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Israel has other missile defense systems, such as David's Sling (Stunner), Arrow, and Patriot batteries. I am assuming the interception was performed by an Iron Dome system because the interception is at short range and Iron Dome interceptions are by far the most common. ↩
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The interception may be related to the hospital blast in the sense that the (unseen) intercepted rocket was part of a larger barrage of at least 10 rockets. The IDF radar tracks suggest that the other rockets were headed toward Jerusalem and passed over or near Al Ahli Hospital, although I am not able to verify that based on the included video. One of those other rockets in the barrage may have caused the hospital blast. ↩
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Where 0° meaning true north, 90° true east, 180° true south, 270° true west. ↩