Based on this work an article has been published in Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen (German). The English translation of the article can be found here.
Analysing possible generation adequacy issues in the context of Germany's Coal Phaseout
With the announcement of coal phase out in Germany the issue of generation adequacy has become critically important. Here the data and code used for the analysis is provided.
The analysis is based on following indicators:
Capacity Factor Comparision
Capacity factors from different sources were used - EMHIRES and NINJA. Significant differences can be found between the sources. The Figure shows the distribution of the full load hours between the sources. 30 years weather data from each source is used.
Availability Factors used for calculation of reliable capacity
|Run of River||0,740|
Best and worst case assumptions w.r.t RES Installed capacities (2023)
|Installed Capacity [GW]||Worst Case||Best Case|
Comparing the two cases, the figure below shows the distribution of the peak residual. The distribution is based on 540 MC Instances (60 weather years and 9 load years).