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Based on this work an article has been published in Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen (German). The article can be found here.

The English translation of the article can be found here.

Analysing possible generation adequacy issues in the context of Germany's Coal Phaseout

With the announcement of coal phase out in Germany the issue of generation adequacy has become critically important. Here the data and code used for the analysis is provided.

The analysis is based on following indicators:

Indicators

Capacity Factor Comparision

Capacity factors from different sources were used - EMHIRES and NINJA. Significant differences can be found between the sources. The Figure shows the distribution of the full load hours between the sources. 30 years weather data from each source is used.

VRE Capacity Factors

Availability Factors used for calculation of reliable capacity

Power Plant Availability
Pump Storage 1,000
Biomass 0,830
Run of River 0,740
Other 0,900
Oil 0,845
Gas 0,902
Coal 0,857
Lignite 0,857

Best and worst case assumptions w.r.t RES Installed capacities (2023)

Installed Capacity [GW] Worst Case Best Case
Wind Onshore 54.7 67.7
Wind Offshore 7.1 9.4
PV 50.3 50.3
Total 112.2 124.5

Comparing the two cases, the figure below shows the distribution of the peak residual. The distribution is based on 540 MC Instances (60 weather years and 9 load years).

VRE Capacity Factors

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Code and Data for the analysis of generation adequacy implication of Germany's coal phase out

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