The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the most predominant strain circulating worldwide. The flatten-the-curve (FTC) policy has been perceived as the most effective method of preventing the spread of this virus. To date, no study has evaluated the exact effect of FTC. This study aimed to establish a data-driven model of Omicron transmission based on the pandemic data in Macau, Hong Kong, and Singapore in 2022 to determine the overall prevention effect of the above strategy throughout China. Our findings showed that the FTC strategy along with enhanced immunity level and drug use can decrease the COVID-19-related deaths. It is also an anti-pandemic, precise prevention method targeting the older population during the initial outbreak of Omicron and is considered a cost-effective strategy.
The model was derived from the Nat Med publication "Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China" and the scource code of this paper is here.
The original model was extremely valuable, but we made some substantial modifications, including the addition of a correction for herd immunity and updated parameters for the Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore outbreaks.
The results files were too large to put in this repo, so the results of the models will be provided if requested.