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[BUG] AutoETS, UnobservedComponents: fix predict_interval for integer based index not starting at zero #4180

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merged 5 commits into from Feb 6, 2023

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@fkiraly fkiraly commented Jan 31, 2023

Fixes #4173, the index generation in AutoETS and UnobservedComponents was wrong.

Also extends the test_predict_interval to test integer based indices (the default _make_series output starts at 3, not 0).

This covers the fix - it has also highlighed the same buggy behaviour in SquaringResiduals which seems to have a different cause.
As this is a different bug, it has been added to the bug tracker here #4181, and is excepted from tests temporarily.

@fkiraly fkiraly added module:forecasting forecasting module: forecasting, incl probabilistic and hierarchical forecasting bugfix Fixes a known bug or removes unintended behavior labels Jan 31, 2023
@fkiraly fkiraly changed the title [BUG] fix AutoETS._predict_interval for integer based index not starting at zero [BUG] AutoETS, UnobservedComponents: fix predict_interval for integer based index not starting at zero Jan 31, 2023
@fkiraly fkiraly merged commit e89681b into main Feb 6, 2023
@fkiraly fkiraly deleted the fix-autoets-predict_interval branch February 6, 2023 22:00
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bugfix Fixes a known bug or removes unintended behavior module:forecasting forecasting module: forecasting, incl probabilistic and hierarchical forecasting
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