2013_UNESCO_uncertainty_course

Practical and low-level introduction to uncertainty assessment of environmental models

The notes were originally created for UNESCO-IHE institute in Delft as part of a modelling course in collaboration with Johannes Van der Kwast. The course is NOT giving a full explanation and road-map on uncertainty assessment, but provides purely an introduction.

The course was structured in three parts:

1. You know the uncertain inputs and want to propagate them

PART 1: http://nbviewer.ipython.org/github/stijnvanhoey/2013_UNESCO_uncertainty_course/blob/master/Uncertainty_part1.ipynb

2. You don't know the uncertain inputs, but you want to get an idea on the potential impact on model output

PART 2: http://nbviewer.ipython.org/github/stijnvanhoey/2013_UNESCO_uncertainty_course/blob/master/Uncertainty_part2.ipynb

3. You don't know the uncertain parameter values, but have (uncertain) data to evaluate the model performance

PART 3: http://nbviewer.ipython.org/github/stijnvanhoey/2013_UNESCO_uncertainty_course/blob/master/Uncertainty_part3.ipynb

The respirometer model and analysis used in the course, was also used in following Conference Proceeding:

Influence of uncertainty analysis methods and subjective choices on prediction uncertainty for a respriometric case, Cierkens Katrijn, Van Hoey Stijn, De Baets Bernard, Seuntjens Piet en Nopens Ingmar (2012) 2012 International congress on environmental modelling and software : managing resources of a limited planet.