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Nudging NOAA: Seasonal Forecast Bias Correction with Machine Learning

See Report Here:
Sub-directories:
  • ./data contains .tif for elevation data. curl and extract data from 1982-2010 into ./data/old and 2012-2020 into ./data/new
  • ./deprecated contains Rscripts we no longer use, but we're keeping as backup. Never delete!
  • ./images contains charts and graphs from tests/experiments
Rscripts:
  • climate_norm_experiment tests climate norm versus quantile matching performance on all US pixels
  • CNN_Dev
  • CNN Practice
  • data_sampling_dev
  • EDA_state exploratory data analysis for some other US states
  • EDA_Vermont exploratory data analysis for Vermont
  • LSTM_dev
  • make_data_dev
  • make_data_slice
  • make_data_with_state is similar to make_train_data, but you can filter cells by state (rather than random sampling).
  • make_test_data is similar to make_train, but requires a train data slice, and generates a similar slice from the test data.
  • make_test_data_CNN will generate a 10 x 10 pixel testing subset of US data (includes Vermont)
  • make_train_data will clean, subset, and store a data slice from the old data. No fancy formatting, you'll have to dig into the code...
  • made_train_data_CNN will generate a 10 x 10 pixel training subset of US data (includes Vermont)
  • ML contains ACF and LSTM resources.
  • PCA conducts a principal components analysis and visualizes results for training + testing data
  • process_data_CNN shapes train and test data to be the correct input shape for CNN
  • results_visualizations visualizes model results
  • rf_testing_multi_cell will take a dataframe of RFs as input and train and test datasets, then do MSE analysis on the test data against GT, QM, and climate norm.
  • rf_training_multi_cell can build and tune RFs on multiple points simultaneously. This is the alternate to:
  • rf_training_single_cell, which builds and tunes a separate RF for every cell in the train data.
  • state-bias determines bias on the full old dataset by state using random sampling.
  • stats_testing has some experimental statistical methods such as GAM.

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Seasonal Weather Forecasting with CNN and RNN.

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