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A demonstration of Vertiasium's model as described in his video "Is Success Luck or Hard Work?": https://youtu.be/3LopI4YeC4I?t=230

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LuckOrSkill

A demonstration of Veritasium's model for astronaut selection as described in their video "Is Success Luck or Hard Work?"

The demo assumes there are 18300 "applicants" in each cycle. I found that across 1000 cycles, the average luck of the top 11 applicants in each cycle was ~97.2%. (Veritasium found it to be around 94.7% although they do not share the specific details of their experiments.) It should be noted that these top applicants are of course also very skilled, upwards of 100%.

This shows that even if luck accounts for only 5% of someone's overall "quality", the top-quality candidates will still be those who are the “luckiest”. It's worth watching the video to understand the implications of this.

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A demonstration of Vertiasium's model as described in his video "Is Success Luck or Hard Work?": https://youtu.be/3LopI4YeC4I?t=230

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