Figures for IPCC AR6 WG1 Chapter 3 (Atmosphere)

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/index.rst

@@ -76,6 +76,7 @@ IPCC
 .. toctree::
    :maxdepth: 1
 
+   recipe_ipccwg1ar6ch3
    recipe_flato13ipcc
    recipe_collins13ipcc
 

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/recipe_collins13ipcc.rst

@@ -141,6 +141,8 @@ User settings
    * ymax: maximum value on y-axis
    * colormap: alternative colormap, path to rgb file or ncl name
 
+.. _ch12_calc_IAV_for_stippandhatch.ncl: 
+
 #. Script ipcc_ar5/ch12_calc_IAV_for_stippandhatch.ncl:
 
    *Required settings (script)*

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/recipe_ipccwg1ar6ch3.rst

@@ -0,0 +1,331 @@
+.. _recipes_ipccwg1ar6ch3:
+
+IPCC AR6 Chapter 3 (selected figures)
+=====================================
+
+Overview
+--------
+
+This recipe collects selected diagnostics used in IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter 3: 
+Human influence on the climate system. Plots from IPCC AR6 can be readily
+reproduced and compared to previous versions. The aim is to be able to start
+with what was available now the next time allowing us to
+focus on developing more innovative analysis methods
+rather than constantly having to "re-invent the wheel".
+
+The plots are produced collecting the diagnostics from individual recipes. The
+following figures from Eyring et al. (2021) can currently be reproduced:
+
+    * Figure 3.3 a,b,c,d: Surface Air Temperature - Model Bias
+
+    * Figure 3.4: Anomaly Of Near-Surface Air Temperature
+
+    * Figure 3.5: Temporal Variability Of Near-Surface Air Temperature
+
+    * Figure 3.13: Precipitation - Model Bias
+
+    * Figure 3.15: Precipitation Anomaly
+
+Available recipes and diagnostics
+---------------------------------
+
+Recipes are stored in esmvaltool/recipes/ipccwg1ar6ch3/
+
+    * recipe_ipccwg1ar6ch3_atmosphere.yml
+
+Diagnostics are stored in esmvaltool/diag_scripts/
+
+    Fig. 3.3:
+
+    * ipcc_ar5/ch12_calc_IAV_for_stippandhatch.ncl: See :ref:`here:<ch12_calc_IAV_for_stippandhatch.ncl>`.
+    * ipcc_ar6/model_bias.ncl
+
+    Fig. 3.4:
+
+    * ipcc_ar6/tas_anom.ncl
+    * ipcc_ar6/tsline_collect.ncl
+
+    Fig. 3.5:
+
+    * ipcc_ar6/zonal_st_dev.ncl
+
+    Fig. 3.13:
+
+    * ipcc_ar5/ch12_calc_IAV_for_stippandhatch.ncl: See :ref:`here:<ch12_calc_IAV_for_stippandhatch.ncl>`.
+    * ipcc_ar6/model_bias.ncl
+
+    Fig. 3.15:
+
+    * ipcc_ar6/precip_anom.ncl
+
+
+User settings in recipe
+-----------------------
+
+#. Script ipcc_ar5/ch12_calc_IAV_for_stippandhatch.ncl
+
+   See :ref:`here<ch12_calc_IAV_for_stippandhatch.ncl>`.
+
+#. Script ipcc_ar6/model_bias.ncl
+
+   *Optional settings (scripts)*
+
+   * plot_abs_diff: additionally also plot absolute differences (true, false)
+   * plot_rel_diff: additionally also plot relative differences (true, false)
+   * plot_rms_diff: additionally also plot root mean square differences (true, false)
+   * projection: map projection, e.g., Mollweide, Mercator
+   * timemean: time averaging, i.e. "seasonalclim" (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON),
+     "annualclim" (annual mean)
+
+   *Required settings (variables)*
+
+   * reference_dataset: name of reference datatset
+
+   *Color tables*
+
+   * variable "tas" and "tos":
+     diag_scripts/shared/plot/rgb/ipcc-ar6_temperature_div.rgb,
+     diag_scripts/shared/plot/rgb/ipcc-ar6_temperature_10.rgb,
+     diag_scripts/shared/plot/rgb/ipcc-ar6_temperature_seq.rgb
+   * variable "pr": diag_scripts/shared/plots/rgb/ipcc-ar6_precipitation_seq.rgb,
+     diag_scripts/shared/plot/rgb/ipcc-ar6_precipitation_10.rgb
+   * variable "sos": diag_scripts/shared/plot/rgb/ipcc-ar6_misc_seq_1.rgb,
+     diag_scripts/shared/plot/rgb/ipcc-ar6_misc_div.rgb
+
+#. Script ipcc_ar6/tas_anom.ncl
+
+   *Required settings for script*
+
+   * styleset: as in diag_scripts/shared/plot/style.ncl functions
+
+   *Optional settings for script*
+
+   * blending: if true, calculates blended surface temperature
+   * ref_start: start year of reference period for anomalies
+   * ref_end: end year of reference period for anomalies
+   * ref_value: if true, right panel with mean values is attached
+   * ref_mask: if true, model fields will be masked by reference fields
+   * region: name of domain
+   * plot_units: variable unit for plotting
+   * y-min: set min of y-axis
+   * y-max: set max of y-axis
+   * header: if true, region name as header
+   * volcanoes: if true, adds volcanoes to the plot
+   * write_stat: if true, write multi model statistics in nc-file
+
+   *Optional settings for variables*
+
+   * reference_dataset: reference dataset; REQUIRED when calculating
+     anomalies
+
+   *Color tables*
+
+   * e.g. diag_scripts/shared/plot/styles/cmip5.style
+
+#. Script ipcc_ar6/tsline_collect.ncl
+
+   *Optional settings for script*
+
+   * blending: if true, then var="gmst" otherwise "gsat"
+   * ref_start: start year of reference period for anomalies
+   * ref_end: end year of reference period for anomalies
+   * region: name of domain
+   * plot_units: variable unit for plotting
+   * y-min: set min of y-axis
+   * y-max: set max of y-axis
+   * order: order in which experiments should be plotted 
+   * stat_shading: if true: shading of statistic range
+   * ref_shading: if true: shading of reference period
+
+   *Optional settings for variables*
+
+   * reference_dataset: reference dataset; REQUIRED when calculating
+     anomalies
+
+#. Script ipcc_ar6/zonal_st_dev.ncl
+
+   *Required settings for script*
+
+   * styleset: as in diag_scripts/shared/plot/style.ncl functions
+
+   *Optional settings for script*
+
+   * plot_legend: if true, plot legend will be plotted
+   * plot_units: variable unit for plotting
+   * multi_model_mean: if true, multi-model mean and uncertaintiy will be 
+     plotted
+
+   *Optional settings for variables*
+
+   * reference_dataset: reference dataset; REQUIRED when calculating
+     anomalies
+
+#. Script ipcc_ar6/precip_anom.ncl
+
+   *Required settings for script*
+
+   * panels: list of variables plotted in each panel
+   * start_year: start of time coordinate
+   * end_year: end of time coordinate
+
+   *Optional settings for script*
+
+   * anomaly: true if anomaly should be calculated
+   * ref_start: start year of reference period for anomalies
+   * ref_end: end year of reference period for anomalies
+   * ref_mask: if true, model fields will be masked by reference fields
+   * region: name of domain
+   * plot_units: variable unit for plotting
+   * header: if true, region name as header
+   * stat: statistics for multi model nc-file (MinMax,5-95,10-90)
+   * y_min: set min of y-axis
+   * y_max: set max of y-axis
+
+
+Variables
+---------
+
+* pr (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* tas (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* tasa (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+
+
+Observations and reformat scripts
+---------------------------------
+
+* BerkeleyEarth (tasa - esmvaltool/cmorizers/obs/cmorize_obs_berkeleyearth.py)
+* CRU (pr - esmvaltool/cmorizers/obs/cmorize_obs_cru.py)
+* ERA5 (tas - ERA5 data can be used via the native6 project)
+* GHCN (pr - esmvaltool/cmorizers/obs/cmorize_obs_ghcn.ncl)
+* GPCP-SG (pr - obs4MIPs)
+* HadCRUT5 (tasa - esmvaltool/cmorizers/obs/cmorize_obs_hadcrut5.py)
+* Kadow (tasa - esmvaltool/cmorizers/obs/cmorize_obs_kadow.ncl)
+* NOAAGlobalTemp (tasa - esmvaltool/cmorizers/obs/cmorize_obs_noaaglobaltemp.ncl)
+
+
+References
+----------
+
+* Eyring, V., N.P. Gillett, K.M. Achuta Rao, R. Barimalala, M. Barreiro
+  Parrillo, N. Bellouin, C. Cassou, P.J. Durack, Y. Kosaka, S. McGregor, S. Min,
+  O. Morgenstern, and Y. Sun, 2021: Human Influence on the Climate System. In 
+  Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group
+  I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
+  Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. 
+  Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. 
+  Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.  Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and 
+  B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
+
+
+Example plots
+-------------
+
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ipccwg1ar6ch3/model_bias_tas_annualclim_CMIP6.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Figure 3.3: Annual mean near-surface (2 m) air temperature (°C) for the
+   period 1995–2014. (a) Multi-model (ensemble) mean constructed with one
+   realization of the CMIP6 historical experiment from each model. (b)
+   Multi-model mean bias, defined as the difference between the CMIP6
+   multi-model mean and the climatology of the fifth generation European
+   Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis
+   of the global climate (ERA5). (c) Multi-model mean of the root mean square
+   error calculated over all months separately and averaged, with respect to
+   the climatology from ERA5. Uncertainty is represented using the advanced
+   approach: No overlay indicates regions with robust signal, where ≥66% of
+   models show change greater than the variability threshold and ≥80% of all
+   models agree on sign of change; diagonal lines indicate regions with no
+   change or no robust signal, where <66% of models show a change greater
+   than the variability threshold; crossed lines indicate regions with
+   conflicting signal, where ≥66% of models show change greater than the
+   variability threshold and <80% of all models agree on sign of change.
+
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ipccwg1ar6ch3/gsat_Global_CMIP6_historical-ssp245_anom_1850-2020.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Figure 3.4a: Observed and simulated time series of the anomalies in annual
+   and global mean surface air temperature (GSAT). All anomalies are
+   differences from the 1850–1900 time-mean of each individual time series.
+   The reference period 1850–1900 is indicated by grey shading. (a) Single
+   simulations from CMIP6 models (thin lines) and the multi-model mean (thick
+   red line). Observational data (thick black lines) are from the Met Office
+   Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit dataset (HadCRUT5), and are blended
+   surface temperature (2 m air temperature over land and sea surface
+   temperature over the ocean). All models have been subsampled using the
+   HadCRUT5 observational data mask. Vertical lines indicate large historical
+   volcanic eruptions. Inset: GSAT for each model over the reference period,
+   not masked to any observations.
+
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ipccwg1ar6ch3/gsat_Global_multimodel_anom_1850-2020.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Figure 3.4b: Observed and simulated time series of the anomalies in annual
+   and global mean surface air temperature (GSAT). All anomalies are
+   differences from the 1850–1900 time-mean of each individual time series.
+   The reference period 1850–1900 is indicated by grey shading. (b) Multi-model
+   means of CMIP5 (blue line) and CMIP6 (red line) ensembles and associated 5th
+   to 95th percentile ranges (shaded regions). Observational data are HadCRUT5,
+   Berkeley Earth, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
+   NOAAGlobalTemp and Kadow et al. (2020). Masking was done as in (a). CMIP6
+   historical simulations were extended with SSP2-4.5 simulations for the
+   period 2015–2020 and CMIP5 simulations were extended with RCP4.5 simulations
+   for the period 2006–2020. All available ensemble members were used. The
+   multi-model means and percentiles were calculated solely from simulations
+   available for the whole time span (1850–2020).
+
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ipccwg1ar6ch3/tas_std_dev_zonmean.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Figure 3.5: The standard deviation of annually averaged zonal-mean
+   near-surface air temperature. This is shown for four detrended observed
+   temperature datasets (HadCRUT5, Berkeley Earth, NOAAGlobalTemp and Kadow et
+   al. (2020), for the years 1995-2014) and 59 CMIP6 pre-industrial control
+   simulations (one ensemble member per model, 65 years) (after Jones et al.,
+   2013). For line colours see the legend of Figure 3.4. Additionally, the
+   multi-model mean (red) and standard deviation (grey shading) are shown.
+   Observational and model datasets were detrended by removing the
+   least-squares quadratic trend. 
+
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ipccwg1ar6ch3/model_bias_pr_annualclim_CMIP6.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Figure 3.13:  Annual-mean precipitation rate (mm day–1) for the period
+   1995–2014. (a) Multi-model (ensemble) mean constructed with one realization
+   of the CMIP6 historical experiment from each model. (b) Multi-model mean
+   bias, defined as the difference between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and
+   precipitation analysis from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project
+   (GPCP) version 2.3 (Adler et al., 2003). (c) Multi-model mean of the root
+   mean square error calculated over all months separately and averaged with
+   respect to the precipitation analysis from GPCP version 2.3. Uncertainty is
+   represented using the advanced approach. No overlay indicates regions with
+   robust signal, where ≥66% of models show change greater than the variability
+   threshold and ≥80% of all models agree on sign of change; diagonal lines
+   indicate regions with no change or no robust signal, where <66% of models
+   show a change greater than the variability threshold; crossed lines indicate
+   regions with conflicting signal, where ≥66% of models show change greater
+   than the variability threshold and <80% of all models agree on the sign of
+   change. 
+
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/ipccwg1ar6ch3/precip_anom_1950-2014.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Figure 3.15: Observed and simulated time series of anomalies in zonal
+   average annual mean precipitation. (a), (c–f) Evolution of global and zonal
+   average annual mean precipitation (mm day–1) over areas of land where there
+   are observations, expressed relative to the base period of 1961–1990,
+   simulated by CMIP6 models (one ensemble member per model) forced with both
+   anthropogenic and natural forcings (brown) and natural forcings only
+   (green). Multi-model means are shown in thick solid lines and shading
+   shows the 5–95% confidence interval of the individual model simulations.
+   The data is smoothed using a low pass filter. Observations from three
+   different datasets are included: gridded values derived from Global
+   Historical Climatology Network (GHCN version 2) station data, updated
+   from Zhang et al. (2007), data from the Global Precipitation Climatology
+   Product (GPCP L3 version 2.3, Adler et al. (2003)) and from the Climate
+   Research Unit (CRU TS4.02, Harris et al. (2014)). Also plotted are
+   boxplots showing interquartile and 5–95% ranges of simulated trends over
+   the period for simulations forced with both anthropogenic and natural
+   forcings (brown) and natural forcings only (blue). Observed trends for each
+   observational product are shown as horizontal lines. Panel (b) shows annual
+   mean precipitation rate (mm day–1) of GHCN version 2 for the years 1950–2014
+   over land areas used to compute the plots.