bear case needs human taxi service

[jacobllcc]

Your valuations hinge upon the 1.7m and the robotaxis. Both could happen if there is enough demand&no hard production problems. I think you should include the taxi service w humans in the bear case and use a lower production number.

If 5% add their car to a human driven fleet priced at 2.5$/mile an with 20% margin, then the growth in the bear case would be approximately the same as you have now except I assume 1 mil cars produced/year and 2.5 million cumulative by 2023.

And your bull case supposes most will add their car to an autonomous fleet. Not so sure myself.

Tesla.Valuation.for.Github_5.23.19_new.xlsx