-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
Commit
This commit does not belong to any branch on this repository, and may belong to a fork outside of the repository.
- Loading branch information
1 parent
1dbef94
commit d97102c
Showing
46 changed files
with
9,771 additions
and
447 deletions.
There are no files selected for viewing
This file contains bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Original file line number | Diff line number | Diff line change |
---|---|---|
|
@@ -63,3 +63,6 @@ todo.txt | |
tex2pdf* | ||
ergebnisse.tex | ||
*.loc | ||
*.soc | ||
_minted-*/ |
This file contains bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
This file contains bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Original file line number | Diff line number | Diff line change |
---|---|---|
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ | ||
name: sid-paper | ||
|
||
channels: | ||
- conda-forge | ||
- pytask | ||
|
||
dependencies: | ||
- python=3.8 | ||
|
||
- pytask | ||
- pytask-latex | ||
- Pygments |
This file contains bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Original file line number | Diff line number | Diff line change |
---|---|---|
@@ -1,10 +1,18 @@ | ||
\begin{abstract} | ||
|
||
Governments worldwide are adopting nuanced policy measures to reduce the number of Covid-19 cases with minimal social and economic costs. Epidemiological models have a hard time predicting the effects of such fine grained policies. We propose a novel simulation-based model to address this shortcoming. We build on state-of-the-art agent-based simulation models but replace the way contacts between susceptible and infected people take place. Firstly, we allow for heterogeneity in the types of contacts (e.g. recurrent or random) and in the infectiousness of each contact type. Secondly, we strictly separate the number of contacts from the probabilities that a contact leads to an infection. The number of contacts changes with social distancing policies, the infection probabilities remain invariant. This allows us to model many types of fine grained policies that cannot easily be incorporated into other models. To validate our model, we show that it can accurately predict the effect of the German November lockdown even if no similar policy has been observed in the time series that were used to estimate the model parameters. | ||
\noindent Governments worldwide are adopting nuanced policy measures to reduce the | ||
number of Covid-19 cases and to balance social and economic costs. Epidemiological | ||
models have a hard time predicting the effects of fine-grained policies. We propose a | ||
novel simulation-based model to address this shortcoming. We build on state-of-the-art | ||
agent-based simulation models but replace the way contacts between susceptible and | ||
infected people take place. Firstly, we allow for heterogeneity in the types of contacts | ||
(e.g. recurrent or random) and in the infectiousness of each contact type. Secondly, we | ||
strictly separate the number of contacts from the probabilities that a contact leads to | ||
an infection. The number of contacts changes with social distancing policies, the | ||
infection probabilities remain invariant. This allows us to model many types of targeted | ||
policies that cannot be incorporated into other models. To validate our model, we show | ||
that it can predict the effect of the German November lockdown even if no similar policy | ||
has been observed during the time period that was used to estimate the model parameters. | ||
|
||
\vspace{1cm} | ||
JEL Classification: C63, I18 | ||
|
||
Keywords: Covid-19, agent based simulation model, public health measures | ||
\noindent JEL Classification: C63, I18 | ||
|
||
\end{abstract} | ||
\noindent Keywords: Covid-19, agent based simulation model, public health measures |
This file contains bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Original file line number | Diff line number | Diff line change |
---|---|---|
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ | ||
Gabler and Röhrl are grateful for financial support by the German Research Foundation | ||
(DFG) through CRC-TR 224 (Projects C01 and A02, respectively). Gabler is grateful for | ||
funding by IZA Institute of Labor Economics. |
Oops, something went wrong.