Prob Dist Calculator
Who is this calculator for?
-- Anyone wondering how many clears of a certain dungeon it will take to get the specific items your after
-- Anyone wanting to see the probability distribution, check how many clears it would take for you to be among the 5% unluckiest people!
-- Anyone who invests hours in number crunching despite the game requiring very little input!
What can I test
An example of what you can test is below:
CPU-Usage: '1' - (low - only for very low probability tests), '2' - (medium), '3' - (high - freaky are ya?): 2
## Low (1,000 Repetitions), Medium (10,000 Repetitions), High (50,000 Repetitions)
## If you are testing a probability like (getting item A, B and C each with a 0.000001 p value):
## Then you will likely have a cpu crash before you get an answer. Make reasonable judgements based on your own computers specs.
## Probabilities are entered in decimal form where p is a number from 0 -> 1. If you have percentage values, just divide by 100.
What is the name of item 1? Ancient Helmet
What is the drop rate (0 < p <= 1) of Ancient Helmet? 0.00415
Any more items? Enter any key if yes, otherwise enter 'n':
What is the name of item 2? Ancient Shield
What is the drop rate (0 < p <= 1) of Ancient Shield? 0.00415
Any more items? Enter any key if yes, otherwise enter 'n':
What is the name of item 3? Ancient Leggings
What is the drop rate (0 < p <= 1) of Ancient Leggings? 0.0028
Any more items? Enter any key if yes, otherwise enter 'n':
What is the name of item 4? Ancient Platebody
What is the drop rate (0 < p <= 1) of Ancient Platebody? 0.0028
Any more items? Enter any key if yes, otherwise enter 'n': n
#returns
"""
1. Saves an svg file into the same folder as this script - this shows all descriptive statistics as well as a histogram for the cumulative density function
2. Prints all descriptive statistics into the console - looks cooler on graph tho
3. Average amount of runs required
"""What does the graph look like
What does 'mean', mean?
Mean is a measure of the average amount of attempts that it will take before the drop-rate is reached.
It is not necessarily what you will experience, it is just a statistical calculation of the best-estimate.
What does 'max, min, count' mean?
Count is number of times that the simulation ran, i.e. the amount of times the script succeeded in acquiring the drops specified and the sample size for the statistical calculations.
Max is the most amount of attempts observed for a particular drop rate. Or the 'unluckiest' simulation out of the 'count'.
Min is the least amount of attempts observed for a particular drop rate. Or the 'luckiest' simulation out of the 'count'.
What does '1%, 5%, 25%, 75%, 95%, 99%' mean?
These percentages are a measure of percentile. If the 75% value was 250, then after 250 attempts, you can be 75% sure that you will have received your drop/s.
Same goes for all other percentiles, if the 1% value was 10, then only 1% of simulations received the drop/s after 10 attempts.
I will make revisions and add more annotations to the graph in the future, but this gives a decent run down so far.
I've found this especially useful for figuring out how long its gonna take to grind out an entire god armour set.
If you have any questions, message me on discord: Dat Boi#4596
Currently, I am offering a service to program a script such as this one (independent standalone python script) for any purpose - it can be Melvor or it can be something entirely different. Message me on discord for inquiries: Dat Boi#4596