Converting to slidify

jknowles · Jun 13, 2013 · e581a89 · e581a89
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diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore
@@ -6,4 +6,5 @@ figure
 handouts
 *.md
 .md
-img/Thumbs.db
+img/Thumbs.db
+.cache*
diff --git a/Tutorial1_Intro.Rmd b/Tutorial1_Intro.Rmd
@@ -4,12 +4,21 @@ subtitle    : DPI R Bootcamp / 2013
 author      : Jared Knowles
 job         : Research Analyst, Wisconsin DPI
 framework   : io2012        # {io2012, html5slides, shower, dzslides, ...}
-highlighter : prettify  # {highlight.js, prettify, highlight}
+highlighter : highlight  # {highlight.js, prettify, highlight}
 hitheme     : hemisu-light      # 
 widgets     : []            # {mathjax, quiz, bootstrap}
 mode        : standalone # {standalone, draft}
 ---
 
+<style>
+em {
+  font-style: italic
+}
+strong {
+  font-weight: bold;
+}
+</style>
+
 ```{r setup, include=FALSE}
 # set global chunk options
 opts_chunk$set(fig.path='figure/slides-', cache.path='cache/slides-', cache=TRUE,
@@ -26,7 +35,7 @@ opts_chunk$set(fig.path='figure/slides-', cache.path='cache/slides-', cache=TRUE
 - Why learn it?
 <p align="center"><img src="img/dpilogo.png" height="81" width="138"></p>
 
---- bg:black
+--- .dark
 
 ## R
 - R is an Open Source (and freely available) environment for statistical computing and graphics
@@ -228,7 +237,7 @@ mtcars
 ```
 
 
-```{r dataframeintro2,echo=FALSE,results='markup'}
+```{r dataframeintro2,echo=FALSE,results='asis'}
 mtcars[1:8,]
 ```
 

diff --git a/Tutorial1_Intro.html b/Tutorial1_Intro.html
diff --git a/TutorialX_Probability.Rmd b/TutorialX_Probability.Rmd
@@ -32,17 +32,13 @@ around us
 
 <p align="center"><img src="img/Double-slit_experiment_results_Tanamura_four.jpg" height="450" width="750"></p>
 
---- quote
+--- .quote
 
-## Edward Gibbon
+The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular. Edward Gibbon
 
-The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular.
+--- .quote .dark
 
---- quote
-
-## Andy Rooney
-
-The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong. 
+The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong. Andy Rooney
 
 ---
 
@@ -65,7 +61,7 @@ Three simple formulas
 - Events are not sequenced in the real world, we often have multiple conditions beyond A and B, and we often have different probabilities for different events. We may want to know the probability of event A, given a fixed outcome of probability B.
 - We need conditional probability formulas:
 - $P(A | B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}$
-- When drawing two aces from the same deck, the probability of drawing an ace on the first draw is $\frac{4}{52}$, but the probability of drawing a second ace conditional on already drawing an ace is $\frac{\frac{4}{52} * \frac{3}{51}}{\frac{4}{52}}$. Why?
+- When drawing two aces from the same deck, the probability of drawing an ace on the first draw is $\frac{4}{52}$, but the probability of drawing a second ace conditional on already drawing an ace is $\frac{\frac{4}{52} \times  \frac{3}{51}}{\frac{4}{52}}$. Why?
 
 ---
 
@@ -93,21 +89,69 @@ Three simple formulas
 
 - While I input your picks, think about what your odds of winning are
 - Remember, after a number is drawn, it is not replaced so there is a $\frac{1}{6}$ then $\frac{1}{5}$, then $\frac{1}{4}$ choice set for three balls, plus the $\frac{1}{4}$ for the powerball.
-- Why or why not do you think the answer you have is correct?
+- Why or why not might your answer be correct?
+
+---
+
+## Answers
+
+> - Chaining together multiple probabilities really complicates things!
+> - If we had to get the balls correctly in order, then the probability would be 
+very straightforward: $\frac{1}{6} \times  \frac{1}{5} \times  \frac{1}{4} \times  \frac{1}{4}$
+> - This is $\frac{1}{480}$, is that too low or too high?
+> - But we can get them right in any order -- why does this matter?
+> - How many unique combinations of your three numbers are there? 
+> - 6
+> - So out of 120 possibilities for those three numbers, you have a chance at 6, and out of the powerball you have the same chance, 1 in 4
+> - What's the new probability?
+> - $\frac{6}{120} \times  \frac{1}{4}$ or 0.0125 or $\frac{1}{80}$
 
 ---
 
-## 
+## Let's see how much you won!
+
+- For each of you, we'll assume you picked the same numbers each time for 1,000 separate lottery drawings
+- We'll see how long it took you to win your first lottery, how many times you won, and how many times you would have won without the powerball being included
+- Demo
 
 ---
 
 ## How do we apply this to our work?
 
->- What is the probability a student in Wisconsin will graduate from high school?
->- Is this a useful question? 
->- What additional information would help answer the question better? 
->- The list of conditional probabilities is quite large!
->- This is the basis for statistical modeling and statistical analysis
+> - What is the probability a student in Wisconsin will graduate from high school?
+> - Is this a useful question? 
+> - What additional information would help answer the question better? 
+> - The list of conditional probabilities is quite large!
+> - This is the basis for statistical modeling and statistical analysis
+
+--- &quote
+
+Probabilistic events generate data in particular patterns, these are called distributions
+
+---
+
+## Exploring Distributions
+
+- Write down your estimate of the following three things on a piece of paper and hand them in, make a copy for yourself, keep your estimate to yourself for now:
+ * How tall in inches (to the nearest quarter inch) is Jared?
+ * What is the US Census estimate of the median household income in Illinois from 2007-2011, in dollars?
+ * What is the current world record time in the women's marathon, in minutes?
+
+--- 
+
+## Graphing your Answers
+
+- While we input your answers, talk with your neighbor about your estimates. Was your neighbor higher or lower than you? Would you change your estimate based on sharing information with your neighbor?
+- Talk to another neighbor, would you change your estimate further? 
+- Let's look at the responses from the group!
+
+---
+
+## Look at the answers
+
+- Jared is 68.25 inches tall
+- Illinois household income is $56,576 (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/17000.html)
+- Marathon time is 2:15:25, or 135.42 minutes (`http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression`)
 
 ---
 
@@ -121,13 +165,13 @@ Three simple formulas
 
 ***left
 ### Very interesting
->- Points to make
->- That you will like
+> - Points to make
+> - That you will like
 
 ***right
 ### Pay attention
->- To this
->- and this
+> - To this
+> - and this
 
 ---