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feat(probability/martingale/convergence): a.e. martingale convergence…
… theorem (#15904) This PR proves the a.e. martingale convergence while a later PR will show the L¹ version. I've also added a new `martingale` folder in the `probability` folder as there are a few files regarding martingales now.
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/- | ||
Copyright (c) 2022 Kexing Ying. All rights reserved. | ||
Released under Apache 2.0 license as described in the file LICENSE. | ||
Authors: Kexing Ying | ||
-/ | ||
import probability.martingale.upcrossing | ||
import measure_theory.function.uniform_integrable | ||
import measure_theory.constructions.polish | ||
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/-! | ||
# Martingale convergence theorems | ||
The martingale convergence theorems are a collection of theorems characterizing the convergence | ||
of a martingale provided it satisfies some boundedness conditions. This file contains the | ||
almost everywhere martingale convergence theorem which provides an almost everywhere limit to | ||
an L¹ bounded submartingale. | ||
## Main results | ||
* `measure_theory.submartingale.ae_tendsto_limit_process`: the almost everywhere martingale | ||
convergence theorem: an L¹-bounded submartingale adapted to the filtration `ℱ` converges almost | ||
everywhere to its limit process. | ||
* `measure_theory.submartingale.mem_ℒ1_limit_process`: the limit process of an L¹-bounded | ||
submartingale is integrable. | ||
-/ | ||
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open topological_space filter measure_theory.filtration | ||
open_locale nnreal ennreal measure_theory probability_theory big_operators topological_space | ||
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namespace measure_theory | ||
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variables {Ω ι : Type*} {m0 : measurable_space Ω} {μ : measure Ω} {ℱ : filtration ℕ m0} | ||
variables {a b : ℝ} {f : ℕ → Ω → ℝ} {ω : Ω} {R : ℝ≥0} | ||
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section ae_convergence | ||
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/-! | ||
### Almost everywhere martingale convergence theorem | ||
We will now prove the almost everywhere martingale convergence theorem. | ||
The a.e. martingale convergence theorem states: if `f` is an L¹-bounded `ℱ`-submartingale, then | ||
it converges almost everywhere to an integrable function which is measurable with respect to | ||
the σ-algebra `ℱ∞ := ⨆ n, ℱ n`. | ||
Mathematically, we proceed by first noting that a real sequence $(x_n)$ converges if | ||
(a) $\limsup_{n \to \infty} |x_n| < \infty$, (b) for all $a < b \in \mathbb{Q}$ we have the | ||
number of upcrossings of $(x_n)$ from below $a$ to above $b$ is finite. | ||
Thus, for all $\omega$ satisfying $\limsup_{n \to \infty} |f_n(\omega)| < \infty$ and the number of | ||
upcrossings of $(f_n(\omega))$ from below $a$ to above $b$ is finite for all $a < b \in \mathbb{Q}$, | ||
we have $(f_n(\omega))$ is convergent. | ||
Hence, assuming $(f_n)$ is L¹-bounded, using Fatou's lemma, we have | ||
$$ | ||
\mathbb{E] \limsup_{n \to \infty} |f_n| \le \limsup_{n \to \infty} \mathbb{E}|f_n| < \infty | ||
$$ | ||
implying $\limsup_{n \to \infty} |f_n| < \infty$ a.e. Furthermore, by the upcrossing estimate, | ||
the number of upcrossings is finite almost everywhere implying $f$ converges pointwise almost | ||
everywhere. | ||
Thus, denoting $g$ the a.e. limit of $(f_n)$, $g$ is $\mathcal{F}_\infty$-measurable as for all | ||
$n$, $f_n$ is $\mathcal{F}_n$-measurable and $\mathcal{F}_n \le \mathcal{F}_\infty$. Finally, $g$ | ||
is integrable as $|g| \le \liminf_{n \to \infty} |f_n|$ so | ||
$$ | ||
\mathbb{E}|g| \le \mathbb{E} \limsup_{n \to \infty} |f_n| \le | ||
\limsup_{n \to \infty} \mathbb{E}|f_n| < \infty | ||
$$ | ||
as required. | ||
Implementation wise, we have `tendsto_of_no_upcrossings` which showed that | ||
a bounded sequence converges if it does not visit below $a$ and above $b$ infinitely often | ||
for all $a, b ∈ s$ for some dense set $s$. So, we may skip the first step provided we can prove | ||
that the realizations are bounded almost everywhere. Indeed, suppose $(|f_n(\omega)|)$ is not | ||
bounded, then either $f_n(\omega) \to \pm \infty$ or one of $\limsup f_n(\omega)$ or | ||
$\liminf f_n(\omega)$ equals $\pm \infty$ while the other is finite. But the first case | ||
contradicts $\liminf |f_n(\omega)| < \infty$ while the second case contradicts finite upcrossings. | ||
-/ | ||
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/-- If a stochastic process has bounded upcrossing from below `a` to above `b`, | ||
then it does not frequently visit both below `a` and above `b`. -/ | ||
lemma not_frequently_of_upcrossings_lt_top (hab : a < b) (hω : upcrossings a b f ω ≠ ∞) : | ||
¬((∃ᶠ n in at_top, f n ω < a) ∧ (∃ᶠ n in at_top, b < f n ω)) := | ||
begin | ||
rw [← lt_top_iff_ne_top, upcrossings_lt_top_iff] at hω, | ||
replace hω : ∃ k, ∀ N, upcrossings_before a b f N ω < k, | ||
{ obtain ⟨k, hk⟩ := hω, | ||
exact ⟨k + 1, λ N, lt_of_le_of_lt (hk N) k.lt_succ_self⟩ }, | ||
rintro ⟨h₁, h₂⟩, | ||
rw frequently_at_top at h₁ h₂, | ||
refine not_not.2 hω _, | ||
push_neg, | ||
intro k, | ||
induction k with k ih, | ||
{ simp only [zero_le', exists_const] }, | ||
{ obtain ⟨N, hN⟩ := ih, | ||
obtain ⟨N₁, hN₁, hN₁'⟩ := h₁ N, | ||
obtain ⟨N₂, hN₂, hN₂'⟩ := h₂ N₁, | ||
exact ⟨(N₂ + 1), nat.succ_le_of_lt $ lt_of_le_of_lt hN | ||
(upcrossings_before_lt_of_exists_upcrossing hab hN₁ hN₁' hN₂ hN₂')⟩ } | ||
end | ||
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/-- A stochastic process that frequently visits below `a` and above `b` have infinite | ||
upcrossings. -/ | ||
lemma upcrossings_eq_top_of_frequently_lt (hab : a < b) | ||
(h₁ : ∃ᶠ n in at_top, f n ω < a) (h₂ : ∃ᶠ n in at_top, b < f n ω) : | ||
upcrossings a b f ω = ∞ := | ||
classical.by_contradiction (λ h, not_frequently_of_upcrossings_lt_top hab h ⟨h₁, h₂⟩) | ||
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/-- A realization of a stochastic process with bounded upcrossings and bounded liminfs is | ||
convergent. | ||
We use the spelling `< ∞` instead of the standard `≠ ∞` in the assumptions since it is not as easy | ||
to change `<` to `≠` under binders. -/ | ||
lemma tendsto_of_uncrossing_lt_top | ||
(hf₁ : liminf at_top (λ n, (∥f n ω∥₊ : ℝ≥0∞)) < ∞) | ||
(hf₂ : ∀ a b : ℚ, a < b → upcrossings a b f ω < ∞) : | ||
∃ c, tendsto (λ n, f n ω) at_top (𝓝 c) := | ||
begin | ||
by_cases h : is_bounded_under (≤) at_top (λ n, |f n ω|), | ||
{ rw is_bounded_under_le_abs at h, | ||
refine tendsto_of_no_upcrossings rat.dense_range_cast _ h.1 h.2, | ||
{ intros a ha b hb hab, | ||
obtain ⟨⟨a, rfl⟩, ⟨b, rfl⟩⟩ := ⟨ha, hb⟩, | ||
exact not_frequently_of_upcrossings_lt_top hab (hf₂ a b (rat.cast_lt.1 hab)).ne } }, | ||
{ obtain ⟨a, b, hab, h₁, h₂⟩ := ennreal.exists_upcrossings_of_not_bounded_under hf₁.ne h, | ||
exact false.elim ((hf₂ a b hab).ne | ||
(upcrossings_eq_top_of_frequently_lt (rat.cast_lt.2 hab) h₁ h₂)) } | ||
end | ||
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/-- An L¹-bounded submartingale has bounded upcrossings almost everywhere. -/ | ||
lemma submartingale.upcrossings_ae_lt_top' [is_finite_measure μ] | ||
(hf : submartingale f ℱ μ) (hbdd : ∀ n, snorm (f n) 1 μ ≤ R) (hab : a < b) : | ||
∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, upcrossings a b f ω < ∞ := | ||
begin | ||
refine ae_lt_top (hf.adapted.measurable_upcrossings hab) _, | ||
have := hf.mul_lintegral_upcrossings_le_lintegral_pos_part a b, | ||
rw [mul_comm, ← ennreal.le_div_iff_mul_le] at this, | ||
{ refine (lt_of_le_of_lt this (ennreal.div_lt_top _ _)).ne, | ||
{ have hR' : ∀ n, ∫⁻ ω, ∥f n ω - a∥₊ ∂μ ≤ R + ∥a∥₊ * μ set.univ, | ||
{ simp_rw snorm_one_eq_lintegral_nnnorm at hbdd, | ||
intro n, | ||
refine (lintegral_mono _ : ∫⁻ ω, ∥f n ω - a∥₊ ∂μ ≤ ∫⁻ ω, ∥f n ω∥₊ + ∥a∥₊ ∂μ).trans _, | ||
{ intro ω, | ||
simp_rw [sub_eq_add_neg, ← nnnorm_neg a, ← ennreal.coe_add, ennreal.coe_le_coe], | ||
exact nnnorm_add_le _ _ }, | ||
{ simp_rw [ lintegral_add_right _ measurable_const, lintegral_const], | ||
exact add_le_add (hbdd _) le_rfl } }, | ||
refine ne_of_lt (supr_lt_iff.2 ⟨R + ∥a∥₊ * μ set.univ, ennreal.add_lt_top.2 | ||
⟨ennreal.coe_lt_top, ennreal.mul_lt_top ennreal.coe_lt_top.ne (measure_ne_top _ _)⟩, | ||
λ n, le_trans _ (hR' n)⟩), | ||
refine lintegral_mono (λ ω, _), | ||
rw [ennreal.of_real_le_iff_le_to_real, ennreal.coe_to_real, coe_nnnorm], | ||
by_cases hnonneg : 0 ≤ f n ω - a, | ||
{ rw [lattice_ordered_comm_group.pos_of_nonneg _ hnonneg, | ||
real.norm_eq_abs, abs_of_nonneg hnonneg] }, | ||
{ rw lattice_ordered_comm_group.pos_of_nonpos _ (not_le.1 hnonneg).le, | ||
exact norm_nonneg _ }, | ||
{ simp only [ne.def, ennreal.coe_ne_top, not_false_iff] } }, | ||
{ simp only [hab, ne.def, ennreal.of_real_eq_zero, sub_nonpos, not_le] } }, | ||
{ simp only [hab, ne.def, ennreal.of_real_eq_zero, sub_nonpos, not_le, true_or]}, | ||
{ simp only [ne.def, ennreal.of_real_ne_top, not_false_iff, true_or] } | ||
end | ||
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lemma submartingale.upcrossings_ae_lt_top [is_finite_measure μ] | ||
(hf : submartingale f ℱ μ) (hbdd : ∀ n, snorm (f n) 1 μ ≤ R) : | ||
∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∀ a b : ℚ, a < b → upcrossings a b f ω < ∞ := | ||
begin | ||
simp only [ae_all_iff, eventually_imp_distrib_left], | ||
rintro a b hab, | ||
exact hf.upcrossings_ae_lt_top' hbdd (rat.cast_lt.2 hab), | ||
end | ||
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/-- An L¹-bounded submartingale converges almost everywhere. -/ | ||
lemma submartingale.exists_ae_tendsto_of_bdd [is_finite_measure μ] | ||
(hf : submartingale f ℱ μ) (hbdd : ∀ n, snorm (f n) 1 μ ≤ R) : | ||
∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, ∃ c, tendsto (λ n, f n ω) at_top (𝓝 c) := | ||
begin | ||
filter_upwards [hf.upcrossings_ae_lt_top hbdd, ae_bdd_liminf_at_top_of_snorm_bdd one_ne_zero | ||
(λ n, (hf.strongly_measurable n).measurable.mono (ℱ.le n) le_rfl) hbdd] with ω h₁ h₂, | ||
exact tendsto_of_uncrossing_lt_top h₂ h₁, | ||
end | ||
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lemma submartingale.exists_ae_trim_tendsto_of_bdd [is_finite_measure μ] | ||
(hf : submartingale f ℱ μ) (hbdd : ∀ n, snorm (f n) 1 μ ≤ R) : | ||
∀ᵐ ω ∂(μ.trim (Sup_le (λ m ⟨n, hn⟩, hn ▸ ℱ.le _) : (⨆ n, ℱ n) ≤ m0)), | ||
∃ c, tendsto (λ n, f n ω) at_top (𝓝 c) := | ||
begin | ||
rw [ae_iff, trim_measurable_set_eq], | ||
{ exact hf.exists_ae_tendsto_of_bdd hbdd }, | ||
{ exact measurable_set.compl (@measurable_set_exists_tendsto _ _ _ _ _ _ (⨆ n, ℱ n) _ _ _ _ _ | ||
(λ n, ((hf.strongly_measurable n).measurable.mono (le_Sup ⟨n, rfl⟩) le_rfl))) } | ||
end | ||
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/-- **Almost everywhere martingale convergence theorem**: An L¹-bounded submartingale converges | ||
almost everywhere to a `⨆ n, ℱ n`-measurable function. -/ | ||
lemma submartingale.ae_tendsto_limit_process [is_finite_measure μ] | ||
(hf : submartingale f ℱ μ) (hbdd : ∀ n, snorm (f n) 1 μ ≤ R) : | ||
∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, tendsto (λ n, f n ω) at_top (𝓝 (ℱ.limit_process f μ ω)) := | ||
begin | ||
classical, | ||
suffices : ∃ g, strongly_measurable[⨆ n, ℱ n] g ∧ ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ, tendsto (λ n, f n ω) at_top (𝓝 (g ω)), | ||
{ rw [limit_process, dif_pos this], | ||
exact (classical.some_spec this).2 }, | ||
set g' : Ω → ℝ := λ ω, if h : ∃ c, tendsto (λ n, f n ω) at_top (𝓝 c) then h.some else 0, | ||
have hle : (⨆ n, ℱ n) ≤ m0 := Sup_le (λ m ⟨n, hn⟩, hn ▸ ℱ.le _), | ||
have hg' : ∀ᵐ ω ∂(μ.trim hle), tendsto (λ n, f n ω) at_top (𝓝 (g' ω)), | ||
{ filter_upwards [hf.exists_ae_trim_tendsto_of_bdd hbdd] with ω hω, | ||
simp_rw [g', dif_pos hω], | ||
exact hω.some_spec }, | ||
have hg'm : @ae_strongly_measurable _ _ _ (⨆ n, ℱ n) g' (μ.trim hle) := | ||
(@ae_measurable_of_tendsto_metrizable_ae' _ _ (⨆ n, ℱ n) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ | ||
(λ n, ((hf.strongly_measurable n).measurable.mono | ||
(le_Sup ⟨n, rfl⟩ : ℱ n ≤ ⨆ n, ℱ n) le_rfl).ae_measurable) hg').ae_strongly_measurable, | ||
obtain ⟨g, hgm, hae⟩ := hg'm, | ||
have hg : ∀ᵐ ω ∂μ.trim hle, tendsto (λ n, f n ω) at_top (𝓝 (g ω)), | ||
{ filter_upwards [hae, hg'] with ω hω hg'ω, | ||
exact hω ▸ hg'ω }, | ||
exact ⟨g, hgm, measure_eq_zero_of_trim_eq_zero hle hg⟩, | ||
end | ||
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/-- The limiting process of an Lᵖ-bounded submartingale is Lᵖ. -/ | ||
lemma submartingale.mem_ℒp_limit_process {p : ℝ≥0∞} | ||
(hf : submartingale f ℱ μ) (hbdd : ∀ n, snorm (f n) p μ ≤ R) : | ||
mem_ℒp (ℱ.limit_process f μ) p μ := | ||
mem_ℒp_limit_process_of_snorm_bdd | ||
(λ n, ((hf.strongly_measurable n).mono (ℱ.le n)).ae_strongly_measurable) hbdd | ||
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end ae_convergence | ||
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end measure_theory |
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