Add biomass demand for bioplastics in 62_material

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -9,6 +9,8 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
 ## [Unreleased]
 
 ### changed
+- **config** added `s62_max_dem_bioplastic` and `s62_midpoint_dem_bioplastic` to define bioplastic scenario
+- **62_material** added biomass demand for bioplastic production
 - **config** updated config to new module setup of MACCs
 - **51_nitrogen** moved maccs into emission modules. change of interface from vm_btm_reg to vm_emissions_reg
 - **58_peatland** moved maccs into emission modules. change of interface from vm_btm_reg to vm_emissions_reg

config/default.cfg

@@ -1556,6 +1556,19 @@ cfg$gms$c60_bioenergy_subsidy <- 300              # def = 300
 # * (exo_flexreg_apr16): default
 cfg$gms$material <- "exo_flexreg_apr16"
 
+# * Biomass demand for bioplastics is based on a logistic curve projecting
+# * bioplastic demand, which matches the historic demand in 2020, and is 
+# * defined by the maximum demand for bioplastics s62_max_dem_bioplastics
+# * (in mio. tonnes) and the midpoint s62_midpoint_dem_bioplastics (i.e. 
+# * where bioplastic demand is half of the maximum demand).
+# * If maximum demand is 0, biomass demand for bioplastic production is not included.
+# * Projected total plastic use in the "Global Ambiton" scneario of the OECD is 
+# * about 600 mio. tonnes in 2050 -> E.g. 200 mio. tonnes in 2050 could be a 
+# * reasonable (but ambitious) bioplastic scenario. With midpoint 2050 this 
+# * would mean s62_max_dem_bioplastic = 400.  
+cfg$gms$s62_max_dem_bioplastic      <- 0                 # def = 0
+cfg$gms$s62_midpoint_dem_bioplastic <- 2050              # def = 2050
+
 # ***---------------------    70_livestock   -----------------------------------
 # * (fbask_jan16): default feed basket realization
 cfg$gms$livestock <- "fbask_jan16"                  # def = fbask_jan16

modules/62_material/exo_flexreg_apr16/declarations.gms

@@ -8,12 +8,17 @@
 
 scalar
   s62_historical                 Switch for turning off historical material demand (1) / 1 /
+  s62_growth_rate_bioplastic     Logistic growth rate of bioplastic demand (1);
 ;
 
 parameters
-  p62_dem_material_lh(i,kall)    Material demand in last historical timestep (mio. tDM per yr)
-  p62_dem_food_lh(i)             Food demand in last historical timestep (mio. tDM per yr)
-  p62_scaling_factor(i)			 Scaling factor for material demand (1)
+  p62_dem_material_lastcalibyear(i,kall)            Material demand in last historical timestep (mio. tDM per yr)
+  p62_dem_food_lastcalibyearh(i)                    Food demand in last historical timestep (mio. tDM per yr)
+  p62_scaling_factor(i)                             Scaling factor for material demand (1)
+  p62_dem_bioplastic(t,i)                           Demand for bioplastic (mio. t per yr)
+  p62_bioplastic_substrate(t,i,kall)                Regional biomass needed as substrate for bioplastic production (mio. tDM per yr)
+  p62_bioplastic_substrate_lastcalibyear(i,kall)    Bioplastic substrate in last historical timestep (mio. tDM per yr) 
+  p62_bioplastic_substrate_double_counted(t,i,kall) Bioplastic substrate counted both in general material demand and demand for bioplastic (mio. tDM per yr)
 ;
 
 positive variables

modules/62_material/exo_flexreg_apr16/equations.gms

@@ -14,17 +14,22 @@
 *' as the scaled version of material demand in last historical timestep
 *' depending on a scaling factor. This scaling factor is calculated as the
 *' ratio beween the food demand from last timestep and the food demand from
-*' the last historical time step.
+*' the last historical time step. If an exogenous target for bioplastic production
+*' is set, material demand (substrate) for bioplastic production is included. 
+*' For historic years it is assumed that this demand is already part of the
+*' general material demand, therefore the double-counted demand is subtracted.
 
  q62_dem_material(i2,kall) ..
                       vm_dem_material(i2,kall)
                       =e=
                       sum(ct,f62_dem_material(ct,i2,kall))*s62_historical
                       +
-                      (p62_dem_material_lh(i2,kall) * p62_scaling_factor(i2))
-                      *(1-s62_historical)
+                      (p62_dem_material_lastcalibyear(i2,kall) * p62_scaling_factor(i2))
+                      *(1-s62_historical) + sum(ct, p62_bioplastic_substrate(ct, i2, kall)) -
+                      sum(ct, p62_bioplastic_substrate_double_counted(ct,i2,kall))
                       ;
 
 *' Results are stored in the interface `vm_dem_material` and this interface
-*' is then used in demand([16_demand]) module as a part of global supply-demand
+*' is then used in demand ([16_demand]) module as a part of global supply-demand
 *' balance for crop, livestock, secondary products and residues.
+

modules/62_material/exo_flexreg_apr16/input.gms

@@ -10,3 +10,22 @@ table f62_dem_material(t_all,i,kall)  Historical material demand (mio. tDM)
 $ondelim
 $include "./modules/62_material/input/f62_dem_material.cs3"
 $offdelim;
+
+parameter f62_biomass2bioplastic_conversion_ratio(kall)  Biomass demand for one unit of bioplastics (tDM biomass per tDM bioplastic)
+/
+$ondelim
+$include "./modules/62_material/input/f62_bioplastic2biomass.csv"
+$offdelim
+/
+;
+
+parameter f62_hist_dem_bioplastic(t_all)  Historic demand for bioplastics (mio. tDM)
+/
+$ondelim
+$include "./modules/62_material/input/f62_hist_dem_bioplastic.csv"
+$offdelim
+/
+;
+
+scalar s62_max_dem_bioplastic maximum demand for bioplastics (mio. tDM per yr) / 400 /;
+scalar s62_midpoint_dem_bioplastic midpoint of logistic function for bioplastic demand (yr) / 2050 /;

modules/62_material/exo_flexreg_apr16/postsolve.gms

@@ -5,14 +5,14 @@
 *** |  MAgPIE License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 *** |  Contact: magpie@pik-potsdam.de
 *' @code
-*' The parameters `p62_dem_material_lh` and `p62_dem_food_lh` are overwritten
-*' based on each time step optimization, in order to be used in next step.
+*' The parameters `p62_dem_material_lastcalibyear` and `p62_dem_food_lastcalibyearh` 
+*' are overwritten based on each time step optimization, in order to be used in next step.
 *' This is only carried out when the model is still running in the time period
 *' before (and including) y2010 with this model version.
 
 if (sum(sameas(t_past,t),1) = 1,
- p62_dem_material_lh(i,kall) = f62_dem_material(t,i,kall);
- p62_dem_food_lh(i)=  sum(kfo, vm_dem_food.l(i,kfo));
+ p62_dem_material_lastcalibyear(i,kall) = f62_dem_material(t,i,kall);
+ p62_dem_food_lastcalibyearh(i)=  sum(kfo, vm_dem_food.l(i,kfo));
 );
 
 *' @stop

modules/62_material/exo_flexreg_apr16/preloop.gms

@@ -5,5 +5,17 @@
 *** |  MAgPIE License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
 *** |  Contact: magpie@pik-potsdam.de
 
- p62_dem_material_lh(i,kall) =0;
- p62_dem_food_lh(i)=1;
+ p62_dem_material_lastcalibyear(i,kall) =0;
+ p62_dem_food_lastcalibyearh(i)=1;
+
+
+* Bioplastic demand is based on historic values up to 2020, and a logistic function with given
+* midpoint and maximum for future years. Global bioplastic demand is distributed to regions
+* proportional to population due to lack of better data.
+
+p62_dem_bioplastic(t,i) = f62_hist_dem_bioplastic(t) * (im_pop(t,i) / sum(i2, im_pop(t,i2)));
+
+if (s62_max_dem_bioplastic <> 0,
+  s62_growth_rate_bioplastic = log((s62_max_dem_bioplastic/f62_hist_dem_bioplastic("y2020")) - 1)/(s62_midpoint_dem_bioplastic-2020);
+  p62_dem_bioplastic(t,i)$(m_year(t)>2020) = s62_max_dem_bioplastic / (1 + exp(-s62_growth_rate_bioplastic*(m_year(t)-s62_midpoint_dem_bioplastic))) * (im_pop(t,i) / sum(i2, im_pop(t,i2)));
+);

modules/62_material/exo_flexreg_apr16/presolve.gms

@@ -19,6 +19,24 @@ else
 );
 
 p62_scaling_factor(i) = 1;
-p62_scaling_factor(i)$(p62_dem_food_lh(i) > 0) = sum(kfo, vm_dem_food.l(i,kfo)) / p62_dem_food_lh(i);
+p62_scaling_factor(i)$(p62_dem_food_lastcalibyearh(i) > 0) = sum(kfo, vm_dem_food.l(i,kfo)) / p62_dem_food_lastcalibyearh(i);
 
 *' @stop
+
+* if max. bioplastic demand is set to zero, overwrite bioplastic demand with zero
+if (s62_max_dem_bioplastic = 0,
+ p62_dem_bioplastic(t,i) = 0
+);
+
+* translate bioplastic demand to biomass demand using conversion factors between bioplastic and the different biomass sources
+p62_bioplastic_substrate(t,i,kall) = p62_dem_bioplastic(t,i) * f62_biomass2bioplastic_conversion_ratio(kall);
+
+* In t_past, biomass demand for bioplastic is already included in the general material demand, which is 
+* scaled for future years. Therefore we calculate the amount of biomass that is counted twice, and subtract
+* it in the final biomass demand equation. 
+if (sum(sameas(t_past,t),1) = 1,
+  p62_bioplastic_substrate_double_counted(t,i,kall) = p62_bioplastic_substrate(t,i,kall);
+  p62_bioplastic_substrate_lastcalibyear(i,kall) = p62_bioplastic_substrate(t,i,kall);
+else
+  p62_bioplastic_substrate_double_counted(t,i,kall) = p62_bioplastic_substrate_lastcalibyear(i,kall) * p62_scaling_factor(i);
+);

modules/62_material/exo_flexreg_apr16/realization.gms

@@ -12,6 +12,9 @@
 *' material module based on historical data. The assumption that material demand
 *' grows proportional to food demand is a simplification that can be justified
 *' by the minor importance of non-bioenergy material usage of agricultural products.
+*' In addition, biomass demand for bioplastic production can be included, with 
+*' future bioplastic production following a logistic curve with exogenously defined 
+*' target production.
 
 *####################### R SECTION START (PHASES) ##############################
 $Ifi "%phase%" == "sets" $include "./modules/62_material/exo_flexreg_apr16/sets.gms"

modules/62_material/input/files

@@ -1,2 +1,4 @@
 * list of files that are required here
 f62_dem_material.cs3
+f62_bioplastic2biomass.csv
+f62_hist_dem_bioplastic.csv

modules/62_material/module.gms

@@ -15,8 +15,10 @@
 *' category, the use for bioenergy (oils and ethanol) has been excluded
 *' and is accounted for in the demand for bioenergy. Material demand in this
 *' context can be considered as a subset of "other utils" category of FAO.
+*' In addition, future material demand for bioplastic production can be included
+*' by setting a target bioplastic demand.
 
-*' @authors Benjamin Bodirsky
+*' @authors Benjamin Bodirsky, Debbora Leip
 
 *###################### R SECTION START (MODULETYPES) ##########################
 $Ifi "%material%" == "exo_flexreg_apr16" $include "./modules/62_material/exo_flexreg_apr16/realization.gms"