Triple Exponential Smoothing with Optimal Parameter Using R

Dataset = Rainfall rate in South Padang Lawas

Times = 2012 until 2021 (Website BPS)

• Assumption Hypotesis Test
• Triple Exponential Smoothing with cross looping with 3 parameters)
• Cross Parameter Seasonal = 'Additive' and 'Multiplicative'
• Looping Parameter alpha = 0.01 - 0.9
• Looping Parameter beta = 0.01 - 0.9
• Looping Parameter gamma = 0.01 - 0.9

Summary(1) = The appropriate model for the data is the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Additive model.

Summary(2) = Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Additive because it has the smallest MAPE value with

• α = 0.10,
• β = 0.10,
• γ = 0.10,
• The MAPE = 0.3271700