This project estimates the annual county, state, and national Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) data using the census five year averages. I use this in some of my other projects where I need a CVAP estimate to calculate voter turnout by county/state.
This is my approach:
- Import all the census CVAP 5 year averages.
- Assign the five year average to the central year (e.g. 2005-2009 is assigned to 2007).
- Use linear regression to predict unknown years (2004-2006, 2018-2021).
The estimates by county, state and nation are available in the output folder.
- Assigning the five year average to the central year might over/underestimate the population if there's a rapid decline or growth.
- The central "year" of the e.g. 2005-2009 period is actually 2006.5, not 2007. But I figured it would be better to use the actual data in place of a prediction when possible.