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Autoregressive forecasting #149

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martins0n opened this issue Jul 15, 2020 · 2 comments
Closed

Autoregressive forecasting #149

martins0n opened this issue Jul 15, 2020 · 2 comments
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feature request Use this label to request a new feature

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@martins0n
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Nice work, guys!

It's a common place to use features generated from timeseries itself like lags, rolling statistics and etc.
I've seen some approaches like using sklearn transformers and pipelines for fitting, and forecasting via recursive procedure( iteratively generating one step ahead predictions )

Have you any ideas about it?
I think it would be nice feature.

@martins0n martins0n added feature request Use this label to request a new feature triage Issue waiting for triaging labels Jul 15, 2020
@martins0n martins0n changed the title Autoregressive aproach for time series forecasting Autoregressive approach for time series forecasting Jul 15, 2020
@pennfranc
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Thanks for your inputs, we will put this on our radar! It might indeed be nice to have a subclass of ForecastingModel that can take any regression model to produce predictions using autoregression. In the meantime, if you're interested in contributing to Darts, please check out this post for guidelines to implement a new model. Also, please let us know if you have any other ideas!

@pennfranc pennfranc removed the triage Issue waiting for triaging label Jul 21, 2020
@LeoTafti LeoTafti changed the title Autoregressive approach for time series forecasting Autoregressive forecasting Oct 16, 2020
@hrzn
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hrzn commented Feb 4, 2021

Here are some elements of answers:
Some models are auto-regressive in nature (e.g AR(I)MA) and so this is already embedded in some models. Some other models such as neural networks are not (always) auto-regressive in nature but rather work by predicting fixed-length outputs. For these cases (neural networks), Darts now provides a native auto-regressive functionality, which will recursively call the neural net on its own outputs until predictions of a certain horizon length are obtained.
As auto-regressive forecasting is a somewhat "abstract" feature that is quite model-dependent, I'm closing this issue. Thanks for the comment @martins0n

@hrzn hrzn closed this as completed Feb 4, 2021
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