MegaMek, 2d6, and the Art of Rolling the Dice Without Losing Your Mechs—or Your Mind
Ah, the humble 2d6, where the fate of your BattleMech hangs in the balance. Rolling two six-sided dice, you can end up with sums ranging from 2 to 12. In the world of MegaMek and BattleTech, the sum might determine whether you make a pinpoint laser shot to the cockpit or a miserable miss.
- 2, 12: 1 way to roll (The Hail Mary of laser shots; a 1 in 36 chance of utter triumph or miserable failure.)
- 3, 11: 2 ways each (Sniper shots with a 2/36 chance.)
- 4, 10: 3 ways each (Medium Lasers, a 3/36 chance for a straightforward hit.)
- 5, 9: 4 ways each (The dependable SRM6; a 4/36 chance to keep it in the 'Mech family.)
- 6, 8: 5 ways each (LRMs, the bread and butter at 5/36 odds.)
- 7: 6 ways (The autocannon, spraying rounds with a 6/36 chance.)
- 3 or higher: The odds are in your favor; you've got 35 out of 36 ways to roll this.
- 7 or higher: You've got 21 out of 36 ways to succeed. That’s about a 58.3% chance of beating this number.
- 11 or higher: Only 3 ways to roll this, which translates to an 8.3% chance.
Java's Random Number Generator (RNG) uses a Linear Congruential Generator (LCG) algorithm, generating sequences that approximate true randomness over a large number of iterations. It’s the under-the-hood machinery that decides if your Gauss Rifle hits its mark or if your ECM jams.
Players might question the fairness of RNG due to several cognitive biases:
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Recency Bias: If a player recently rolled a series of low numbers, they might feel the RNG is rigged, overlooking the larger picture of long-term probabilities.
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Confirmation Bias: Should a player suspect MegaMek favors high rolls, each such roll only "confirms" this, although the outcomes are statistically fair.
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Human Perception of Randomness: True randomness has more clusters and imbalances than one might expect. A run of similar rolls in MegaMek might seem suspicious but is statistically likely.
Human cognition is generally not wired to grasp probabilities or randomness. This can lead to misinterpretations, especially when the cockpit starts heating up and each roll seems like a life-or-death scenario for your 'Mech.
Statistical fluctuations happen. Even in MegaMek, if you're looking at small sample sizes like 100 rolls, expect some deviations from the expected probabilities.
- 100 rolls: Deviations are more noticeable. You might roll a 7 twenty times instead of the expected 16-17.
- 1,000 rolls: The numbers should start to stabilize but won't be perfect. Maybe you hit a 7 around 270 times instead of the predicted 277.
- 10,000 rolls: Here, the outcomes should be very close to the theoretical expectations.
So there you have it, MechWarrior. The next time you find yourself cursing the RNG gods, just remember: the dice are as impartial as a MechWarrior is to overheating—it’s all part of the game.