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3 changes: 2 additions & 1 deletion paper_slides/figures/dynamic_stacked.tex
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Expand Up @@ -16,7 +16,8 @@
and the QCEW.
The figure mimics estimates in Figure \ref{fig:dynamic_baseline}
using a ``stacked'' sample.
We construct the sample as explained in Appendix Table \ref{tab:stacked_w6}.
We construct the sample as explained in Online Appendix Table
\ref{tab:stacked_w6}.
95\% pointwise confidence intervals are obtained from standard errors
clustered at the state level.
\end{minipage}
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion paper_slides/figures/map_housing_exp_chicago_jul2019.tex
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Expand Up @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@
Notes:
Data are from the \textcite{IRS} and the \textcite{hudSAFMR}.
The figure shows housing expenditure shares as computed in
Appendix \ref{sec:measure_housing_expenditure}, namely,
Online Appendix \ref{sec:measure_housing_expenditure}, namely,
by dividing the SAFMR 40th percentile rental value for a 2-bedroom
apartment by average monthly wage per household divided, both
for 2018.
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17 changes: 9 additions & 8 deletions paper_slides/paper/appendix.tex
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Expand Up @@ -155,7 +155,7 @@ \subsection{Assigning Minimum Wage Levels to USPS ZIP Codes}
based on the names of the county and the place.
We define the statutory MW at each census block as the maximum of the federal,
state, county, and place levels.
Then, based on the original correspondence table described in Appendix
Then, based on the original correspondence table described in Online Appendix
\ref{sec:blocks_to_uspszip}, we assign a ZIP code to each block.
Finally, we define \textit{the statutory MW} for ZIP code $i$ and month $t$,
$\MW_{it}$, as the weighted average of the statutory MW levels in its
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ \subsubsection*{Locating minimum wage earners}
\footnote{More precisely, we compute a tract-to-ZIP-code correspondence from
the LODES correspondence between blocks and tracts, available in
\textcite{CensusLODES}, and the geographical match between blocks and ZIP codes
from Appendix \ref{sec:blocks_to_uspszip}.
from Online Appendix \ref{sec:blocks_to_uspszip}.
For each tract, we compute the share of houses that fall in each ZIP code, and
we assume that the share in the tract-ZIP code combination equals the share of
houses times the estimated number of MW workers in the tract.}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -442,8 +442,8 @@ \section{The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Income Across Space}
%% wages and everything works out
%%

Appendix Table \ref{tab:static_wages} shows estimates of $\varepsilon$ for
different specifications of the model given in \eqref{eq:wage_level_model}.
Online Appendix Table \ref{tab:static_wages} shows estimates of $\varepsilon$
for different specifications of the model given in \eqref{eq:wage_level_model}.
Columns (1) through (3) estimate the effect of the workplace MW on log total
wages under different specifications.
The point estimates of $\varepsilon$ fluctuate between 0.0909 and 0.1275.
Expand All @@ -460,13 +460,14 @@ \section{The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Income Across Space}
that a 10 percent increase in the MW will increase total wages by
$(6.8/10.1)\times 10\times 0.15 \approx 1.01$ percent.

Column (4) of Appendix Table \ref{tab:static_wages} replicates column (3)
Column (4) of Online Appendix Table \ref{tab:static_wages} replicates column (3)
but interacts the workplace MW measure with the standarized share of MW workers
estimated as explained in Appendix \ref{sec:assigning_mw_levels}.
estimated as explained in Online Appendix \ref{sec:assigning_mw_levels}.
As expected, we find that a higher share of MW workers makes the effect of
workplace MW increases larger.
Column (5) of Appendix Table \ref{tab:static_wages} shows, as a falsification
test, estimates of the same model as in column (3) but using the log of total
Column (5) of Online Appendix Table \ref{tab:static_wages} shows,
as a falsification test,
estimates of the same model as in column (3) but using the log of total
dividends as dependent variable.
We obtain a positive but much lower effect that is statistically
indistinguishable from zero, suggesting that dividends do not respond to
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52 changes: 27 additions & 25 deletions paper_slides/paper/context_data.tex
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Expand Up @@ -35,15 +35,15 @@ \subsection{Minimum Wage Policies in the 2010s}
levels.
In these cases we assign a weighted average of the statutory MW levels in its
constituent census blocks, exploiting an original correspondence table between
blocks and ZIP codes detailed in Appendix \ref{sec:blocks_to_uspszip},
blocks and ZIP codes detailed in Online Appendix \ref{sec:blocks_to_uspszip},
where weights correspond to the number of housing units.
The result is a ZIP code-month panel of statutory MW levels in the US between
January 2010 and June 2020.
More details on the construction of the panel can be found in Appendix
More details on the construction of the panel can be found in Online Appendix
\ref{sec:assigning_mw_levels}.

Appendix Figure \ref{fig:mw_policies} shows the different levels of binding MW
policies over time in our data.
Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:mw_policies} shows the different levels of
binding MW policies over time in our data.
Panel A focuses on state-level MW policies.
There are $\stateBindingMW$ states with MW policies in 2010--2020, all of
which started prior to January 2010.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -75,10 +75,11 @@ \subsection{Relationship Between Income and Housing}
While approximately $\TopDecPrRent$ percent of households in the bottom quintile
are renters, only around $\BottomDecPrRent$ percent of households in the top
quintile are.
Appendix Figure \ref{fig:ahs_rent_sqft} shows that, among households that rent,
rents per square foot are surprisingly constant across household income levels.
Appendix Figure \ref{fig:ahs_unit_types} shows the type of building households
live in by household income decile.
Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:ahs_rent_sqft} shows that, among households
that rent, rents per square foot are surprisingly constant across household
income levels.
Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:ahs_unit_types} shows the type of building
households live in by household income decile.

%%
%% Things that we may also say:
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -110,15 +111,15 @@ \subsection{Relationship Between Income and Housing}
rental value from the HUD.%
\footnote{We impute a small share of missing values using a regression model
where the ZIP code-level covariates include data from LODES and the US Census.
See Appendix \ref{sec:measure_housing_expenditure} for details.}%
See Online Appendix \ref{sec:measure_housing_expenditure} for details.}%
\textsuperscript{,}%
\footnote{This computation will be a good approximation for the housing
expenditure share insofar total housing expenditure and total wage income are
roughly proportional to their averages under the same constant of
proportionality.
This computation also assumes away differences in the number of bedrooms across
ZIP codes.}
Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_hous_exp_chicago} maps our estimates for the
Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_hous_exp_chicago} maps our estimates for the
metropolitan area of Chicago.
There is considerable variation in housing expenditure over space, with poorer
areas generally spending a higher share of their income in housing.
Expand All @@ -132,7 +133,7 @@ \subsection{Relationship Between Income and Housing}
Thus, to get a sense of the spatial distribution of minimum wage earners we
construct a proxy variable using the number of workers across income bins
in the 5-year 2010-2014 American Community Survey \parencite[ACS;][]{CensusACS}.
See details in Appendix \ref{sec:assigning_mw_levels}.
See details in Online Appendix \ref{sec:assigning_mw_levels}.
Our variable for the share of MW workers is negatively correlated with median
household income from the ACS (corr.\ $=\corrShWkrMedInc$) and
positively correlated with our estimate of the housing expenditure share
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -175,21 +176,21 @@ \subsubsection{Rents Data}
covers the most common US rental house types \parencite{Fernald2020}.
We focus on rents \textit{per square foot} to account for systematic differences
in housing size.
In fact, as shown in Appendix Figure \ref{fig:ahs_rent_sqft}, this variable does
not seem to vary much with household income.
In fact, as shown in Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:ahs_rent_sqft}, this
variable does not seem to vary much with household income.
Our main outcome variable represents the median rental price per square foot in
the SFCC category among units listed in the platform for a given ZIP code and
month.
Appendix Figure \ref{fig:trend_zillow_safmr} shows that this series follows a
similar trend over time when compared to SAFMR.
Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:trend_zillow_safmr} shows that this series
follows a similar trend over time when compared to SAFMR.
We show results using median rents per square foot in other rental categories
available in the data as well.

The Zillow data have several limitations.
First, Zillow's market penetration dictates the sample of ZIP codes available.
Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_zillow_sample} shows that the sample of ZIP codes
with valid SFCC rents data typically coincides with areas of high population
density.
Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_zillow_sample} shows that the sample of ZIP
codes with valid SFCC rents data typically coincides with areas of high
population density.
Second, we only observe the median per-square-foot rental value among listings.
We do not observe actual rents paid by tenants in a given period,
the distribution of rents among listings in the given ZIP code and month, nor
Expand All @@ -212,7 +213,7 @@ \subsubsection{The residence and workplace minimum wage measures}
We collected the datasets for ``All Jobs.''
The raw data are aggregated at the census block level.
We further aggregate it to ZIP codes using the original correspondence between
census blocks and USPS ZIP codes described in Appendix
census blocks and USPS ZIP codes described in Online Appendix
\ref{sec:blocks_to_uspszip}.
This results in ZIP code residence-workplace matrices that, for each location
and year, indicate the number of jobs of residents in every other location.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -256,8 +257,8 @@ \subsubsection{The residence and workplace minimum wage measures}
illustrates the difference in these measures by plotting the change in the
residence and workplace MW measures in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin CBSA in
July 2019.
For completeness, Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_rents_chicago_jul2019} shows
the changes in our main median rents variable around the same date.
For completeness, Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_rents_chicago_jul2019}
shows the changes in our main median rents variable around the same date.


%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -305,7 +306,8 @@ \subsubsection{Other data sources}\label{sec:data_other}
In order to describe our sample of ZIP codes we collect data from the ACS
\parencite{CensusACS} and the 2010 US Census \parencite{CensusDecennial}.
We collect these data at the block or tract levels, and assign it to ZIP codes
using the correspondence table described in Appendix \ref{sec:blocks_to_uspszip}.
using the correspondence table described in Online Appendix
\ref{sec:blocks_to_uspszip}.

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
\subsubsection{Estimation samples}\label{sec:data_final_panel}
Expand All @@ -315,8 +317,8 @@ \subsubsection{Estimation samples}\label{sec:data_final_panel}
This panel contains $\ZIPMWeventsUnbal$ MW changes at the ZIP code level,
which arise from $\StateMWeventsUnbal$ state-level changes and
$\CityCountyMWeventsUnbal$ county- and city-level changes.
Appendix Figure \ref{fig:mw_changes_dist_zillow} shows the distribution of
positive increases in our statutory MW variable among all ZIP codes available
Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:mw_changes_dist_zillow} shows the distribution
of positive increases in our statutory MW variable among all ZIP codes available
in the Zillow data.
Given that ZIP codes enter the Zillow data progressively over time affecting
the composition of the sample,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -350,7 +352,7 @@ \subsubsection{Estimation samples}\label{sec:data_final_panel}
we conduct an estimation exercise where we re-weight our sample to match the
average of a handful of characteristics of those.

Finally, Appendix Table \ref{tab:stats_est_panel} shows sample statistics
Finally, Online Appendix Table \ref{tab:stats_est_panel} shows sample statistics
of our baseline panel.
The distribution of the residence and workplace MW measures is, as expected,
quite similar.
Expand Down
26 changes: 13 additions & 13 deletions paper_slides/paper/counterfactual.tex
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Expand Up @@ -69,7 +69,7 @@ \subsection{Empirical Approach}\label{sec:emp_cf}
While gauging the spillover effects of the MW on wages across ZIP codes is
not the main goal of the paper, estimates of $\varepsilon$ are not readily
available in the literature.
Appendix \ref{sec:mw_on_income} discusses the details of our estimation
Online Appendix \ref{sec:mw_on_income} discusses the details of our estimation
strategy, and compares the results with estimates of the effect of the MW
on income of workers in the same jurisdiction.
We also show that our results are heterogeneous depending on the share of
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -143,8 +143,8 @@ \subsubsection{Counterfactual increases in residence and workplace MW levels}
and (ii) the assumed value for the federal or city MW in January 2020.%
\footnote{To be more precise, we take the maximum between the MW levels of
different jurisdictions at the level of the block.
Then, we aggregate up to ZIP codes using the correspondence table in Appendix
\ref{sec:blocks_to_uspszip}.
Then, we aggregate up to ZIP codes using the correspondence table in
Online Appendix \ref{sec:blocks_to_uspszip}.
We do so to account for the fact that the new MW policy may be partially
binding in some ZIP codes.}
Then, we compute the counterfactual values of the residence MW and the workplace
Expand All @@ -154,7 +154,7 @@ \subsubsection{Counterfactual increases in residence and workplace MW levels}
\paragraph{Federal increase}

The distributions of counterfactual increases in the MW measures are displayed
in Appendix Figure \ref{fig:cf_hist_res_and_wkp_mw}.
in Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:cf_hist_res_and_wkp_mw}.
Out of the $\zipcodesFedNine$ ZIP codes that satisfy our criteria,
$\zipNoIncFedNine$ (or $\zipNoIncPctFedNine$\%) experience no increase in
the residence MW at all.
Expand All @@ -167,8 +167,8 @@ \subsubsection{Counterfactual increases in residence and workplace MW levels}
are still visible in the histogram of the workplace MW.
However, we observe more places experiencing moderate increases in this measure.

Panel A of Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_chicago_cf_wkp_res} maps the changes
in the residence and workplace MW in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin CBSA.
Panel A of Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_chicago_cf_wkp_res} maps the
changes in the residence and workplace MW in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin CBSA.
Unlike in Figure \ref{fig:map_mw_chicago_jul2019}, we observe the MW increasing
from the outside of Cook County and spilling over inside it.

Expand All @@ -182,8 +182,8 @@ \subsubsection{Counterfactual increases in residence and workplace MW levels}
In this case, there are $\zipIncChiFourteen$ ZIP codes whose
residence MW are affected by this change and $\zipNoIncChiFourteen$
that remain directly unaffected.
Panel B of Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_chicago_cf_wkp_res} shows the changes
in both MW measures after this policy.
Panel B of Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_chicago_cf_wkp_res} shows the
changes in both MW measures after this policy.
As expected, we observe large increases in the workplace MW in the city,
which become smaller as one moves away from it.

Expand All @@ -195,8 +195,8 @@ \subsubsection{The share of extra wage income pocketed by landlords}
Following the results in Table \ref{tab:static}, we take
$\beta = \betaCf$ and
$\gamma = \gammaCf$.
Based on the results discussed in Appendix \ref{sec:mw_on_income}, we take
$\varepsilon = \epsilonCf$.
Based on the results discussed in Online Appendix \ref{sec:mw_on_income}, we
take $\varepsilon = \epsilonCf$.
We follow the procedure outlined in the previous subsection to estimate the
incidence of the counterfactual policy.

Expand All @@ -213,15 +213,15 @@ \subsubsection{The share of extra wage income pocketed by landlords}

Panel A of Figure \ref{fig:map_chicago_cf_shares} maps the estimated shares
in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin CBSA.
Panel A of Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_chicago_cf_rents_wages} shows
Panel A of Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_chicago_cf_rents_wages} shows
estimated increases in rents and wage income.
We estimate a larger share pocketed in Cook County.
The reason is that these ZIP codes experience the new policy only through
their workplace MW and, as a result, rents increase relatively more than
wage income.
We also observe a larger incidence on landlords in the south of Cook County,
where the housing expenditure share is larger
(as reflected in Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_hous_exp_chicago}).
(as reflected in Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_hous_exp_chicago}).

The top rows of Panel A in Table \ref{tab:counterfactuals} show the medians of
the key estimated objects for two groups:
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -262,7 +262,7 @@ \subsubsection{The share of extra wage income pocketed by landlords}
$\rhoMedCentsIndirChiFourteen$ cents for the median not directly treated one.

Panel B of Figure \ref{fig:map_chicago_cf_shares} maps the shares.
Panel B of Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_chicago_cf_rents_wages} shows the
Panel B of Online Appendix Figure \ref{fig:map_chicago_cf_rents_wages} shows the
estimated changes in rents and total wages.
Unlike the previous exercise, the share pocketed by landlords is now higher
right outside of Chicago City.
Expand Down
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