README file last updated by Robert Kopp, robert-dot-kopp-at-rutgers-dot-edu, Sun Feb 14 17:40:51 EST 2016
This code is intended to accompany the results of
R. E. Kopp, R. M. Horton, C. M. Little, J. X. Mitrovica, M. Oppenheimer,
D. J. Rasmussen, B. H. Strauss, and C. Tebaldi (2014). Probabilistic 21st
and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide gauge
sites. Earth's Future 2: 287–306, doi:10.1002/2014EF000239.
Please cite that paper when using any results generated with this code.
This code requires MATLAB with the Statistics Toolbox.
This MATLAB code is intended to help end-users who wish to work with the sea-level rise projections of Kopp et al. (2014) in greater detail than provided by the supplementary tables accompanying that table but without re-running the full global analysis using the supplementary code accompanying the paper. Key functionality these routines provide include:
- Local sea-level rise projections at decadal time points and arbitrary quantiles
- Localized Monte Carlo samples, disaggregatable by contributory process
- Localized variance decomposition plots
These routines do not provide the extreme flood level analysis in Kopp et al. (2014), but the Monte Carlo time series samples they produce can be combined with other analyses to look at probabilistic changes in flood frequency over time.
The IFILES directory contains the ~200 MB file SLRProjections140523core.mat, which stores 10,000 Monte Carlo samples for each of the processes contributing to global sea-level change, along with metadata. The code loads these samples without regenerating them and then localizes them. (Note that the github source archive does not include the MAT file; it is included both in the archive of v1.0 of the code, available from Zenodo at doi:10.5281/zenodo.15507, and the binary releases downloadable from github at https://github.com/bobkopp/LocalizeSL/releases.)
Functions are stored in the MFILES directory.
The most important function is LocalizeStoredProjections:
[sampslocrise,sampsloccomponents,siteids,sitenames,targyears,scens,cols] =
LocalizeStoredProjections(focussites,storefile)
LocalizeStoredProjections takes as input two parameters. STOREFILE is the path of the SLRProjections140523core.mat file. FOCUSSITES is the PSMSL ID or IDs of the site(s) of interest. (Please see psmsl.org or the supplementary tables to Kopp et al. (2014) to identify the IDs corresponding to your site of interest. Specify 0 if you want GSL samples returned in the same format.)
LocalizeStoredProjections outputs two M x N cell arrays of localized Monte Carlo samples, SAMPSLOCRISE and SAMPSLOCCOMPONENTS. In each cell array, the m rows correspond to the sites specified in FOCUSSITES and the N columns to different RCPs (specifically, RCP 8.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5, and RCP 2.6).
The individual cells of SAMPSLOCRISE are P x Q arrays, with the P rows being 10,000 Monte Carlo samples and the Q columns corresponding to decadal time points. The individual cells of SAMPSLOCRISE are P x Q arrays, with the P rows being 10,000 Monte Carlo samples and the Q columns corresponding to decadal time points. The individual cells of SAMPSLOCCOMPONENTS are P x R x Q arrays. The 1st and 3rd dimensions correspond to the rows and columns of SAMPSLOCRISE; the R columns represent 24 different factors contributing to sea-level rise. Specifically, these factors are:
1 - GIC: Alaska
2 - GIC: Western Canada/US
3 - GIC: Arctic Canada North
4 - GIC: Arctic Canada South
5 - GIC: Greenland peripheral glaciers
6 - GIC: Iceland
7 - GIC: Svalbard
8 - GIC: Scandinavia
9 - GIC: Russian Arctic
10 - GIC: North Asia
11 - GIC: Central Europe
12 - GIC: Caucasus
13 - GIC: Central Asia
14 - GIC: South Asia West
15 - GIC: South Asia East
16 - GIC: Low Latitude
17 - GIC: Southern Andes
18 - GIC: New Zealand
19 - Greenland Ice Sheet
20 - West Antarctic Ice Sheet
21 - East Antarctic Ice Sheet
22 - Land water storage
23 - Oceanographic processes (thermal expansion and ocean dynamics)
24 - GIA, tectonics, and other background processes
The other outputs of LocalizeStoredProjections are identifying information that can be passed out to the output commands. SITEIDS returns the PSMSL site IDs of selected sites; SITENAMES the names of those sites; TARGYEARS the years of the output; SCENS the RCPs; and COLS are column labels.
Several other provided functions produce output, with detailed parameter specification described in the headers.
PlotSLRProjection generates a time series plot analogous to Figure 3 of Kopp et al. (2014).
PlotSLRProjectionVariance generates a variance decomposition plot analogous to Figure 4 of Kopp et al. (2014). WriteTableMC outputs Monte Carlo samples. WriteTableSLRProjection outputs desired quantiles of the projections.
selectedSite = 12; % use PSMSL ID here to select site
% set up path
rootdir='~/Dropbox/Code/LocalizeSL';
corefile=fullfile(rootdir,'IFILES/SLRProjections140523core.mat');
addpath(fullfile(rootdir,'MFILES'));
% generate local samples
[sampslocrise,sampsloccomponents,siteids,sitenames,targyears,scens,cols] = LocalizeStoredProjections(selectedSite,corefile);
% plot curves
figure;
hp1=PlotSLRProjection(sampslocrise,targyears,[],scens);
xlim([2000 2100]); ylim([0 200]);
title(sitenames{1});
% plot variance decomposition
figure;
hp2=PlotSLRProjectionVariance(sampsloccomponents,targyears,cols,[],1);
subplot(2,2,1); title([ sitenames{1} ' - RCP 8.5']);
figure;
hp3=PlotSLRProjectionVariance(sampsloccomponents,targyears,cols,[],1,4);
subplot(2,2,1); title([sitenames{1} ' - RCP 2.6']);
% output quantiles of projections
quantlevs=[.01 .05 .167 .5 .833 .95 .99 .995 .999];
WriteTableSLRProjection(sampslocrise,quantlevs,siteids,sitenames,targyears,scens);
% output Monte Carlo samples
WriteTableMC(sampslocrise,[],siteids,sitenames,targyears,scens);
% output Monte Carlo samples without background trend,
% to allow incorporation of alternative estimates of background trend
WriteTableMC(sampsloccomponents,1:23,siteids,sitenames,targyears,scens,'LSLProj_nobkgd_');
% output decomposition
WriteTableDecomposition(sampsloccomponents,quantlevs,siteids,sitenames,targyears,cols,scens);
% pull GSL samples
[sampsGSLrise,sampsGSLcomponents,siteids,sitenames,targyears,scens,cols] = LocalizeStoredProjections(0,corefile);
WriteTableDecomposition(sampsGSLcomponents,quantlevs,siteids,sitenames,targyears,cols,scens);
Copyright (C) 2015 by Robert E. Kopp
This program is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
(at your option) any later version.
This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
GNU General Public License for more details.
You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
along with this program. If not, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.