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Logistic growth #1697

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jlskrock opened this issue Sep 30, 2020 · 3 comments
Closed

Logistic growth #1697

jlskrock opened this issue Sep 30, 2020 · 3 comments

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@jlskrock
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Are there some hyperparameters for change the default behaviour of Logistic growth? I mean to try "squash" the forecast.
Considering CAP=100 with just some lower historic values the growth rate is huge. Will always the forecast try to touch the CAP value?
Congratulations for this fantastic package.

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@hansukyang
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I find setting growth='flat'tends to work well for my use case.

@bletham
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bletham commented Oct 8, 2020

Yes, if there is increasing growth, then the logistic growth trend will grow (exponentially) until it reaches the saturation capacity. This is the underlying function: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function . If there isn't a particular level that you expect this time series to saturate at, then I think the default (piecewise linear) trend would probably be a better choice. If the intent of using the logistic trend was to keep it positive, then I'd recommend looking at the discussion and strategies in #1668.

@jlskrock
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jlskrock commented Nov 4, 2020

I understood
Thanks for the tips.

@bletham bletham closed this as completed Jan 7, 2021
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