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Bugfix SOM, TC cost and Biodiversity Module + new Biodiversity Module realization #399

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3 changes: 3 additions & 0 deletions CHANGELOG.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -66,6 +66,7 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
- **config** added option for CO2 emission pricing `cfg$gms$c56_carbon_stock_pricing`
- **config** added cfg$gms$s70_past_mngmnt_factor_fix with default 2005 (previous default was 2010). The previous setting caused a strong spike in CO2 emissions from pasture expansion in SSA. With 2005, this can be avoided.
- **38_factor_costs** mixed_reg_feb17 realization added. This realization includes differences in productions costs between irrigated and rainfed crops, with the option of regional differentiation as well. per_ton_fao_may22 realization added. This realization corresponds to the old sticky_feb18 free.
- **44_biodiversity** added new realization `bii_target`, which calculates the BII at the level of 71 biomes and allows to set targets for BII (e.g. no decrease in the future)


### removed
Expand All @@ -87,6 +88,8 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
- **56_ghg_policy** Some equations in `56_ghg_policy` have been simplified. Also, GHG emissions from peatlands have been fully integrated into `56_ghg_policy`.
- **scripts** scripts/start/extra/emulator.R Throw an error if no file can be found to take the GHG prices from
- **56_ghg_policy and config** removed switch `s56_reward_neg_emis`
- **44_biodiversity** fixed accounting for time step length in realization `bv_btc_mar21`
- **41_area_equipped_for_irrigation** static realization. bugfix in presolve.gms: f41_irrig_luh("y1995",j)

## [4.4.0] - 2021-12-13

Expand Down
67 changes: 53 additions & 14 deletions config/default.cfg
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ cfg$model <- "main.gms" #def = "main.gms"
cfg$input <- c(regional = "rev4.72_h12_magpie.tgz",
cellular = "rev4.72_h12_fd712c0b_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp370_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz",
validation = "rev4.72_h12_validation.tgz",
additional = "additional_data_rev4.17.tgz",
additional = "additional_data_rev4.21.tgz",
calibration = "calibration_H12_per_ton_fao_may22_28May22.tgz")

# Options for calibration tgz files for different factor costs realizations, with default settings and rev4.64:
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -274,7 +274,9 @@ cfg$gms$c13_tccost <- "medium" # def = medium
cfg$gms$s13_ignore_tau_historical <- 1 # def = 1

# * Maximum regional tech cost expressed as share of reginal GDP
cfg$gms$s13_max_gdp_shr <- 0.002 # def = 0.002
# * A meaningful value would be 0.002. However, this bound causes infeasibilities in some cases.
# * Therefore, this bound is not used in the current model version.
cfg$gms$s13_max_gdp_shr <- Inf # def = Inf


# ***--------------------- 14_yield --------------------------------------
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -967,24 +969,61 @@ cfg$gms$water_availability <- "total_water_aug13" # def = total_water_aug13
# * nocc_hist (no climate change after year defined by sm_fix_cc)
cfg$gms$c43_watavail_scenario <- "cc" # def = "cc"


# ***------------------------- 44_biodiversity ------------------------------
# * (bv_btc_mar21): biodiversity stock calculation based on Bending the Curve initiative (BTC)
cfg$gms$biodiversity <- "bv_btc_mar21" # def = bv_btc_mar21
# * (bii_target): Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) calculation at the level of 71 biomes with the option to define a target for BII increase
# * (bv_btc_mar21): Global optimization of range-rarity weighted biodiversity stocks based on a price for losses and gains
cfg$gms$biodiversity <- "bii_target" # def = bii_target

# * Start year for linear increase towards BII target value (in bii_target) or biodiversity target price (in bv_btc_mar21)
cfg$gms$s44_start_year <- 2025 #def = 2025

# * Year in which the BII target value (in bii_target) or biodiversity target price (in bv_btc_mar21) is reached
cfg$gms$s44_target_year <- 2100 #def = 2100

# ** Options for realization `bii_target`
# * This realisation allows to define a target value and year for the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII)
# * that is applied in each biome type of each biogeographic realm or at the global level.
# * The BII has been proposed as a control variable for changes in ecosystem functioning at the global scale
# * and has shown to capture increasing levels of ecosystem degradation. Steffen et al. (2015, 10.1126/science.1259855) have proposed
# * a premliminary boundary of 0.9 at the biome level (safe space) but with an uncertainty range of 0.9-0.3,
# * in which ecosystem degradation may undermine stable ecosystem functioning and the supply of nature's
# * contributions to people (NCP). With BII values below 0.3, the area's biodiversity has been depleted,
# * causing high risk of ecosystem collapse. Estimates for the global BII range between 0.7975 in 1970 and 0.7754
# * in 2000. https://www.nhm.ac.uk/our-science/data/biodiversity-indicators/biodiversity-intactness-index-data
# * In MAgPIE, the global BII value is about 0.8 in 1995 and declines to 0.795 by 2020.

# * BII target mode (binary)
# * options: 0 (global) or 1 (biome)
# * In case of 0 (global), the BII target `s44_bii_target` is converted into increasing lower bounds for the BII in each of the 71 biomes with to goal to meet the BII target at global level in the target year.
# * In case of 1 (biome), the BII target `s44_bii_target` is set as lower bound in each of the 71 biomes.
cfg$gms$c44_bii_target_mode <- 1 #def = 1

# * Target value for BII in target year; plausible range: 0-1
# * In case a biome has a higher BII value than the calculated lower bound, the current BII value is set as lower bound.
cfg$gms$s44_bii_target <- 0 #def = 0

# * Indicative outcomes for `s44_bii_target` based on c44_bii_target_mode = 0, s44_start_year = 2025 and s44_target_year = 2100.
# * 0: continued decrease of global BII
# * 0.79: no further decrease of global BII
# * 0.80: moderate increase of global BII
# * 0.81: stronger increase of global BII
# * >= 0.82: very strong increase of global BII accomplished by high conversion of pasture to non-forest natural land

# ** Options for realization `bv_btc_mar21`

# * Start year of biodiversity price
cfg$gms$s44_start_year <- 2020 #def = 2020
# * Target year of biodiversity price
cfg$gms$s44_target_year <- 2050 #def = 2050
# * Price for biodiversity stock loss/gain in start year (USD per ha)
cfg$gms$s44_start_price <- 0 #def = 0
# * Price for biodiversity stock loss/gain in target year (USD per ha)
# * Plausible range: 0-2000
# * Plausible range: 0-10000
# * Indicative outcomes
# * 0 - decrease of BII
# * 1000 - rather constant BII
# * 2000 - increase of BII
# * 0: decrease of BII
# * 3000: rather constant BII
# * 6000: moderate increase of BII
# * 10000: stronger increase of BII
cfg$gms$s44_target_price <- 0 #def = 0

# * Price for biodiversity stock loss/gain in start year (USD per ha)
cfg$gms$s44_start_price <- 0 #def = 0


# ***------------------------- 45_climate ---------------------------------
# * (static): static koeppengeiger climate classification data
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion config/scenario_config.csv
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -61,5 +61,5 @@ gms$s32_hvarea;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2;2;2;2;2;2;1;0;;;;;;
gms$s35_secdf_distribution;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2;2;2;2;2;2;2;0;;;;;;
gms$s35_hvarea;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2;2;2;2;2;2;2;0;;;;;;
gms$s73_timber_demand_switch;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;1;1;1;1;1;1;1;0;;;;;;
input['cellular'];;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;rev4.68_h12_0bd54110_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp119_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz;rev4.68_h12_6819938d_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp126_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz;rev4.68_h12_1b5c3817_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp245_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz;rev4.68_h12_3c888fa5_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp460_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz;rev4.68_h12_fd712c0b_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp370_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz;rev4.68_h12_09a63995_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp585_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz
input['cellular'];;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;rev4.72_h12_0bd54110_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp119_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz;rev4.72_h12_6819938d_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp126_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz;rev4.72_h12_1b5c3817_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp245_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz;rev4.72_h12_3c888fa5_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp460_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz;rev4.72_h12_fd712c0b_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp370_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz;rev4.72_h12_09a63995_cellularmagpie_c200_MRI-ESM2-0-ssp585_lpjml-8e6c5eb1.tgz
gms$c52_land_carbon_sink_rcp;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;RCP19;RCP26;RCP45;RCP60;RCPBU;RCPBU
17 changes: 17 additions & 0 deletions literature.bib
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -1487,3 +1487,20 @@ @article{brooks_global_2006
pages = {58--61},
file = {brooks_etal_2006_global_biodiversity.pdf:C\:\\Users\\vjeetze\\Library\\[###] To Read\\brooks_etal_2006_global_biodiversity2.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{olson_biome_2001,
title = {Terrestrial {Ecoregions} of the {World}: {A} {New} {Map} of {Life} on {Earth}: {A} new global map of terrestrial ecoregions provides an innovative tool for conserving biodiversity},
volume = {51},
issn = {0006-3568},
shorttitle = {Terrestrial {Ecoregions} of the {World}},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0933:TEOTWA]2.0.CO;2},
doi = {10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0933:TEOTWA]2.0.CO;2},
number = {11},
urldate = {2022-06-02},
journal = {BioScience},
author = {Olson, David M. and Dinerstein, Eric and Wikramanayake, Eric D. and Burgess, Neil D. and Powell, George V. N. and Underwood, Emma C. and D'amico, Jennifer A. and Itoua, Illanga and Strand, Holly E. and Morrison, John C. and Loucks, Colby J. and Allnutt, Thomas F. and Ricketts, Taylor H. and Kura, Yumiko and Lamoreux, John F. and Wettengel, Wesley W. and Hedao, Prashant and Kassem, Kenneth R.},
month = nov,
year = {2001},
pages = {933--938},
file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/flo/Zotero/storage/IPVVRT7Q/Olson et al. - 2001 - Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World A New Map of .pdf:application/pdf},
}
8 changes: 4 additions & 4 deletions main.gms
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -158,7 +158,7 @@ $title magpie
* md5sum: NA
* Repository: scp://cluster.pik-potsdam.de/p/projects/rd3mod/inputdata/output
*
* Used data set: additional_data_rev4.17.tgz
* Used data set: additional_data_rev4.21.tgz
* md5sum: NA
* Repository: scp://cluster.pik-potsdam.de/p/projects/landuse/data/input/archive
*
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -190,7 +190,7 @@ $title magpie
* * Call: withCallingHandlers(expr, message = messageHandler, warning = warningHandler, error = errorHandler)
*
*
* Last modification (input data): Mon May 30 22:22:17 2022
* Last modification (input data): Wed Jun 1 12:09:49 2022
*
*###################### R SECTION END (VERSION INFO) ###########################

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -253,14 +253,14 @@ $setglobal urban exo_nov21
$setglobal natveg dynamic_feb21

$setglobal labor_prod off
$setglobal factor_costs sticky_feb18
$setglobal factor_costs per_ton_fao_may22
$setglobal landconversion calib

$setglobal transport gtap_nov12
$setglobal area_equipped_for_irrigation endo_apr13
$setglobal water_demand all_sectors_aug13
$setglobal water_availability total_water_aug13
$setglobal biodiversity bv_btc_mar21
$setglobal biodiversity bii_target
$setglobal climate static

$setglobal nr_soil_budget exoeff_aug16
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion modules/13_tc/endo_jan22/input.gms
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@

scalars
s13_ignore_tau_historical ignore historical tau (1) or use it as lower bound (0) (binary) / 1 /
s13_max_gdp_shr Maximum tech cost as share of regional GDP / 0.002 /
s13_max_gdp_shr Maximum tech cost as share of regional GDP / Inf /
;

parameter fm_tau1995(h) Agricultural land use intensity tau in 1995 (1)
Expand Down
10 changes: 7 additions & 3 deletions modules/13_tc/endo_jan22/presolve.gms
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -27,12 +27,16 @@ else

vm_tau.up(h,tautype) = 2*pcm_tau(h,tautype);

if(m_year(t) > sm_fix_SSP2 AND s13_max_gdp_shr <> Inf,

* We constrain tech cost to a defined share of regional GDP to avoid unrealistically
* high endogenous tech investments
vm_tech_cost.up(i) =
sum((i_to_iso(i,iso),ct), im_gdp_pc_ppp_iso(ct,iso) * im_pop_iso(ct,iso)) * s13_max_gdp_shr;
vm_tech_cost.up(i) =
sum((i_to_iso(i,iso),ct), im_gdp_pc_ppp_iso(ct,iso) * im_pop_iso(ct,iso)) * s13_max_gdp_shr;

* We set the initial solving basis for the tech cost to its upper bound to support the solver in finding
* a proper solution. Without such initial values, the model leave tech cost at 0 and as such ignore tau
* as an efficient part of the optimal solution.
vm_tech_cost.l(i) = vm_tech_cost.up(i);
vm_tech_cost.l(i) = vm_tech_cost.up(i);

);
1 change: 0 additions & 1 deletion modules/41_area_equipped_for_irrigation/static/input.gms
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -24,4 +24,3 @@ $include "./modules/41_area_equipped_for_irrigation/input/avl_irrig_luh_t.cs2"
$offdelim
/
;
m_fillmissingyears(f41_irrig_luh,"j");
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
*** | Contact: magpie@pik-potsdam.de

$ifthen "%c41_initial_irrigation_area%" == "Siebert" v41_AEI.fx(j) = f41_irrig(j);
$elseif "%c41_initial_irrigation_area%" == "LUH2v2" v41_AEI.fx(j) = f41_irrig_luh(t,j);
$elseif "%c41_initial_irrigation_area%" == "LUH2v2" v41_AEI.fx(j) = f41_irrig_luh("y1995",j);
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$endif

vm_cost_AEI.fx(i) = 0;
40 changes: 40 additions & 0 deletions modules/44_biodiversity/bii_target/declarations.gms
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
*** | (C) 2008-2021 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
*** | authors, and contributors see CITATION.cff file. This file is part
*** | of MAgPIE and licensed under AGPL-3.0-or-later. Under Section 7 of
*** | AGPL-3.0, you are granted additional permissions described in the
*** | MAgPIE License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
*** | Contact: magpie@pik-potsdam.de


positive variables
vm_cost_bv_loss(j) Biodiversity cost (mio USD)
vm_bv(j,landcover44,potnatveg) Biodiversity stock for all land cover classes (Mha)
v44_bii(biome44) Biodiversity Intactness Index BII (1)
v44_bii_missing(biome44) Missing BII increase for compliance with BII target (1)
;

parameters
p44_bii_target(t,biome44) Interpolated target values for BII over time (1)
p44_start_value(biome44) Start value for BII (1)
p44_target_value(biome44) Target value for BII (1)
;

equations
q44_bii(biome44) Biodiversity Intactness Index BII (1)
q44_bii_target(biome44) Missing BII increase for compliance with BII target (1)
q44_cost Biodiversity cost (mio USD)
;


*#################### R SECTION START (OUTPUT DECLARATIONS) ####################
parameters
ov_cost_bv_loss(t,j,type) Biodiversity cost (mio USD)
ov_bv(t,j,landcover44,potnatveg,type) Biodiversity stock for all land cover classes (Mha)
ov44_bii(t,biome44,type) Biodiversity Intactness Index BII (1)
ov44_bii_missing(t,biome44,type) Missing BII increase for compliance with BII target (1)
oq44_bii(t,biome44,type) Biodiversity Intactness Index BII (1)
oq44_bii_target(t,biome44,type) Missing BII increase for compliance with BII target (1)
oq44_cost(t,type) Biodiversity cost (mio USD)
;
*##################### R SECTION END (OUTPUT DECLARATIONS) #####################

27 changes: 27 additions & 0 deletions modules/44_biodiversity/bii_target/equations.gms
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
*** | (C) 2008-2021 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
*** | authors, and contributors see CITATION.cff file. This file is part
*** | of MAgPIE and licensed under AGPL-3.0-or-later. Under Section 7 of
*** | AGPL-3.0, you are granted additional permissions described in the
*** | MAgPIE License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
*** | Contact: magpie@pik-potsdam.de

*' @equations

*' The Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) is calculated at the level of 71 biomes.

q44_bii(biome44)$(sum(j2, f44_biome(j2,biome44)) > 0) .. v44_bii(biome44)
=e=
(sum((j2,potnatveg,landcover44), vm_bv(j2,landcover44,potnatveg) * f44_biome(j2,biome44)) / sum((j2,land), pcm_land(j2,land) * f44_biome(j2,biome44)));

*' For each of the 71 biomes, the BII has to meet a minium level based on `s44_bii_target`.
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*' `v44_bii_missing` is a technical variable to maintain feasibility in case `v44_bii` cannot be increased.

q44_bii_target(biome44)$(sum(j2, f44_biome(j2,biome44)) > 0) ..
v44_bii(biome44) + v44_bii_missing(biome44) =g= sum(ct, p44_bii_target(ct,biome44));

*' Costs accrue only for `v44_bii_missing`. In the best case costs should be zero or close to zero.
*' Costs strongly depend on the choice of `s44_bii_target`.

q44_cost .. sum(j2, vm_cost_bv_loss(j2)) =e=
sum(biome44, v44_bii_missing(biome44)) * s44_cost_bii_missing;

27 changes: 27 additions & 0 deletions modules/44_biodiversity/bii_target/input.gms
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
*** | (C) 2008-2021 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
*** | authors, and contributors see CITATION.cff file. This file is part
*** | of MAgPIE and licensed under AGPL-3.0-or-later. Under Section 7 of
*** | AGPL-3.0, you are granted additional permissions described in the
*** | MAgPIE License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
*** | Contact: magpie@pik-potsdam.de

scalars
s44_bii_target Target value for global BII (1) / 0 /
c44_bii_target_mode BII target mode (binary) / 1 /
s44_target_year Year in which the BII target value is reached (1) / 2100 /
s44_start_year Start year for interpolation towards BII target value (1) / 2025 /
s44_cost_bii_missing Technical costs for missing BII increase (USD per unit of BII) / 1000000 /
;


table fm_bii_coeff(bii_class44,potnatveg) Biodiversity Intactness Index coefficients (unitless)
$ondelim
$include "./modules/44_biodiversity/bii_target/input/f44_bii_coeff.cs3"
$offdelim
;

table f44_biome(j,biome44) Share of biome type in each spatial unit (1)
$ondelim
$include "./modules/44_biodiversity/bii_target/input/biorealm_biome.cs3"
$offdelim
;
3 changes: 3 additions & 0 deletions modules/44_biodiversity/bii_target/input/files
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* list of files that are required here
f44_bii_coeff.cs3
biorealm_biome.cs3
38 changes: 38 additions & 0 deletions modules/44_biodiversity/bii_target/postsolve.gms
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*** | (C) 2008-2021 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
*** | authors, and contributors see CITATION.cff file. This file is part
*** | of MAgPIE and licensed under AGPL-3.0-or-later. Under Section 7 of
*** | AGPL-3.0, you are granted additional permissions described in the
*** | MAgPIE License Exception, version 1.0 (see LICENSE file).
*** | Contact: magpie@pik-potsdam.de

*#################### R SECTION START (OUTPUT DEFINITIONS) #####################
ov_cost_bv_loss(t,j,"marginal") = vm_cost_bv_loss.m(j);
ov_bv(t,j,landcover44,potnatveg,"marginal") = vm_bv.m(j,landcover44,potnatveg);
ov44_bii(t,biome44,"marginal") = v44_bii.m(biome44);
ov44_bii_missing(t,biome44,"marginal") = v44_bii_missing.m(biome44);
oq44_bii(t,biome44,"marginal") = q44_bii.m(biome44);
oq44_bii_target(t,biome44,"marginal") = q44_bii_target.m(biome44);
oq44_cost(t,"marginal") = q44_cost.m;
ov_cost_bv_loss(t,j,"level") = vm_cost_bv_loss.l(j);
ov_bv(t,j,landcover44,potnatveg,"level") = vm_bv.l(j,landcover44,potnatveg);
ov44_bii(t,biome44,"level") = v44_bii.l(biome44);
ov44_bii_missing(t,biome44,"level") = v44_bii_missing.l(biome44);
oq44_bii(t,biome44,"level") = q44_bii.l(biome44);
oq44_bii_target(t,biome44,"level") = q44_bii_target.l(biome44);
oq44_cost(t,"level") = q44_cost.l;
ov_cost_bv_loss(t,j,"upper") = vm_cost_bv_loss.up(j);
ov_bv(t,j,landcover44,potnatveg,"upper") = vm_bv.up(j,landcover44,potnatveg);
ov44_bii(t,biome44,"upper") = v44_bii.up(biome44);
ov44_bii_missing(t,biome44,"upper") = v44_bii_missing.up(biome44);
oq44_bii(t,biome44,"upper") = q44_bii.up(biome44);
oq44_bii_target(t,biome44,"upper") = q44_bii_target.up(biome44);
oq44_cost(t,"upper") = q44_cost.up;
ov_cost_bv_loss(t,j,"lower") = vm_cost_bv_loss.lo(j);
ov_bv(t,j,landcover44,potnatveg,"lower") = vm_bv.lo(j,landcover44,potnatveg);
ov44_bii(t,biome44,"lower") = v44_bii.lo(biome44);
ov44_bii_missing(t,biome44,"lower") = v44_bii_missing.lo(biome44);
oq44_bii(t,biome44,"lower") = q44_bii.lo(biome44);
oq44_bii_target(t,biome44,"lower") = q44_bii_target.lo(biome44);
oq44_cost(t,"lower") = q44_cost.lo;
*##################### R SECTION END (OUTPUT DEFINITIONS) ######################

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