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Truthcoin: Decentralized Bitcoin Prediction Markets

This is the theoretical work behind the actual C++ implementation here.


Truthcoin is my ambitious project to create a trustless P2P prediction-marketplace. This is possible because, unlike most marketplaces, the end product of a prediction market (PM) is information. Bitcoin adds the second piece of the puzzle: the exchange of value. The end result is the first of its kind: a market for actual prediction-commodities, which have a value based on their accuracy and not based on the behavior of any administrator, rival trader, or counterparty.

Traditional PMs have been persecuted much in the same way as e-cash systems, and current Bitcoin alternatives require the user to trust the operator to:

  1. Keep funds safe.
  2. Create desirable markets.
  3. Accurately determine the outcome of markets.

Instead, Truthcoin's outcomes are determined by a vote weighted by present and past conformity, using in a new token-ownership-model. This theoretically produces a unique Nash Equilibrium of unanimous honesty. Moreover, incentives are to only create contracts which are useful (measured by trading volume), and unambiguous (measured by vote-similarity). Additionally, market liquidity is guaranteed to be permanently nonzero thanks to the LMSR. MSRs allow for simple, secure, realtime buying and selling.

What's going on!?

Look at some [Slide Shows]( [This written intro]( explains "what this is and why it is important". [The whitepaper]( explains "how it works". Check out the [voting demo]( Read the [FAQ]( Visit the [website]( and [forum](

You Can Help!

1. Read the documentation / code and ask questions to grow the FAQ! (Email me or pull into [the errata section]( or [the FAQ section]( with any new questions). 2. Joining and posting to the forum. 3. Help test/improve the code. Or, work for money and use that money to hire someone who can test/improve the code!

Where is Everything?

Code: 'lib' folder Readings/Documentation/Purpose/Applications/Tech: 'docs' folder

The 'lib' folder also has html files which describe the outcome of function tests and demonstrations. These files were automatically generated from R code using R-markdown, and the .rmd files are included alongside the html files for reproducibility.


Donation Address: 1M5tVTtynuqiS7Goq8hbh5UBcxLaa5XQb8
I'm giving away all of this work for free. It was hard work!
Thanks to everyone who donated.


Trustless and Decentralized Bitcoin Prediction Marketplace



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