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Breaks if Skewness >= 1 as in BoE's latest forecast #1
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Thanks for finding this issue. Investigation in progress. |
Great :) |
After investigating this issue, I have found that the package behaviour is consistent with the assumptions of the distribution forecasts as twopiece normals. That is, the skewness parameter should be in (-1, 1). So, the only change that I plan to make to the package is to raise an appropriate warning when parameters out of range are provided. I wrote a brief explanation about this on my blog. Thanks again for highlighting this to me. |
Interesting! Great blog post. Thanks for looking into this and for publishing your insight into what the out of range skewness implies. |
After some communication with BoE, they confirmed that what is published in their recent spreadsheet as Skewness is not the actual |
I love what you've done here.
I wanted to see if I could reproduce the latest BoE fanchart (August 2022) but I am encountering the attached error message.
I have played around a bit with the data to try to see what is causing the issue and I think it occurs when Skewness >= 1 as it is in the latest BoE projections for two periods
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