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Covid Forecasting in 8 U.S. counties and 8 countries around the world with an innovative hybrid neural network made of AR and LSTM. Assessed and compared with 6 other models.

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Yangyi-Zhang/Covid-Forecasting

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An interpretable hybrid predictive model of COVID‐19 cases using autoregressive model and LSTM

This is the code for our study: An interpretable hybrid predictive model of COVID‐19 cases using autoregressive model and LSTM. ArXiv: 2211.17014. In this study, we proposed an interpretable hybrid neural network and tested its performance on COVID-19 prediction tasks, compared with AutoRegression, LSTM (single layer, double layer), SVM, Random Forest, XGBoost, on data collected from 8 countries, over 790 days.

Files: Data_preprocessing: extract counties of interest and treat missing data.

  • LSTM_single: code for single layer LSTM, examined on 8 counties, latest trials(88 days) and all trials between 2020-02-01 to 2022-09-05.
  • LSTM_double: code for double layer LSTM, examined on 8 counties, latest trials(88 days) and all trials between 2020-02-01 to 2022-09-05.
  • AR_and_single_LSTM: code for AR model and single layer LSTM, examined on 8 counties, latest trials(88 days) and all trials between 2020-02-01 to 2022-09-05. The data was presented in a comprehensive report. Notice that the Hybrid model in this file is NOT THE SAME as the Hybrid model presented in report.
  • CI_last_trial: code for prediction on the latest data from all 8 counties. 100 runs on each trial. With uncertainty quantification.
  • visuals_uncertain: code for visual comparison on AR, single LSTM, and Hybrid. Examined across several counties and trials. 100 runs on each trial. With uncertainty quantification.

4/9/2023 update:

  • add folder worldStudy, which includes an additional study on COVID-19 prediction in 7 countries around the world with the 4 original models and 3 additional models: AR, LSTM, double layer LSTM, hybrid, SVM, Random Forest, XGBoost.
  • data: original data we study in this project, also available on the official website of California state goverment and the World Health Organization (WHO), respectively.

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Covid Forecasting in 8 U.S. counties and 8 countries around the world with an innovative hybrid neural network made of AR and LSTM. Assessed and compared with 6 other models.

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