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Analysis of Early Head-to-Head Polling in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

  • analysis3_2016.R performs the full analysis on the 2016 election.
  • analysis4_2020.R performs the full analysis on the 2016 election.
  • calc_plot.R provides helper functions for summaries and plotting.
  • cps_micro.R tabulates CPS microdata for use in creating a synthetic electorate.
  • demg_adj.R calculates population changes based on CPS forecasts.
  • early_polls.R analyzes the efficacy of early polls in predicting demographic patterns in presidential election results.
  • electorate.R creates a synthetic electorate based on CPS microdata (not included in repository) and state and national demographic results (using IPF).
  • IPF.R provides functions for a modified iterative proportional fitting algorithm.
  • quinnipiac.R scrapes crosstabs from Quinnipiac's website.

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