Bush Pilot Safety

AUTHORS

Muhammad Hassan, Sophia Joseph, Mike Minikowski, Lisa Paul, Nolan Smurro

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Note: References to the Alaska Airmen's Association made throughout this project are fictional and are for narrative purposes only. This narrative is used to contextualize the methodologies presented. The project's contributors have no affiliation with the Alaska Airmen's Association, and this work was not submitted to the Alaska Airmen's Association in any capacity.

Problem Statement

Can statistically significant contributing factors to serious aviation accidents among Alaskan Bush Pilots be identified?

Executive Summary

This project seeks to analyze data related to aviation incidents involving single-engine aircraft in Alaska, with a focus on those leading to fatalities. By understanding the primary factors contributing to these incidents, we hope to be able to contribute to recommendations for safety initiatives to further protect Alaskan aviators in the general aviation community.

Our work for the Alaska Airmen’s Association (AAA) is rooted in the goal of promoting effective emergency response and preventing fatal accidents. The AAA, a nonprofit established in 1951, is dedicated to promoting general aviation, enhancing safety, and supporting initiatives that benefit pilots. Our efforts aim to support their mission of advocating for access and safety infrastructure across the state. We seek to provide the AAA with our findings to support their advocation efforts in the upcoming 2024 calendar year.

About Alaskan Bush Pilots

Alaskan Bush Pilots are integral in communites throughout Alaska, demonstrating resilience and expertise while navigating the vast and rugged landscapes of Alaska. Often piloting single-engine light aircraft, these aviators must handle unpredictable weather conditions and challenging landing terrains. Their missions extend beyond conventional flight. They serve as the primary or only means of transportation for delivery and essential services to isolated communities. Additionally, Alaskan Bush Pilots play a vital role in search and rescue operations.

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File Directory / Table of Contents

This is an alphabetical list of the repository's directory and file structure.

- README.md
- code
  - 01_cleaning.ipynb
  - 02_eda.ipynb
  - 03_nlp.ipynb
  - 04_model_glm.ipynb
  - 05_model_logreg_event_time_of_day.ipynb
  - 06_model_logreg_occurred_near_airport.ipynb
  - 07_model_logreg_event_time_of_day.ipynb
- datasets
  - data_cleaned
    - alaska_single_engine_clean.csv
  - data_raw
    - alaska_single_engine.csv
- images
  - probable_cause.png
- pickles
  - logreg_occurred_near_airport-has_fatal_injury.pkl
  - logreg_weather_condition-has_fatal_injury.pkl
- presentation
  - alaskan_bush_pilot_safety.pdf
- results
  - glm_pvalues.csv
  - logreg_occurred_near_airport-has_fatal_injury_coef.csv
  - logreg_weather_condition-has_fatal_injury_coef.csv

Software Requirements

• GeoPandas
• Jupyter Notebook
• Matplotlib.pyplot
• NumPy
• Pandas
• Pickle
• Scikit-Learn (sklearn)
• Statsmodels.api

Data Dictionary

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Feature	Description	Details
EventId	Unique Identification for Each Event	Each event is assigned a unique 14-character alphanumeric code in the database. This code is used to reference all database records.
InvestigationType	Type of Event	Refers to a regulatory definition of the event severity, combining the highest level of injury and aircraft damage.
AccidentNumber	NTSB Number	Each accident/incident is assigned a unique case number by the NTSB. The number includes information about the office, fiscal year, investigation category, and sequence.
EventDate	Event Date	The date of the event in MM/DD/YYYY format.
Location	Event Location Nearest City	The city or place location closest to the site of the event.
Country	Event Country	The country where the event took place.
Latitude	Event Location Latitude	Latitude coordinates of the event site in degrees and decimal degrees.
Longitude	Event Location Longitude	Longitude coordinates of the event site in degrees and decimal degrees.
AirportCode	Event Location Nearest Airport ID	Airport code if the event occurred near an airport or involved aircraft taking off from or on approach to an airport.
AirportName	Event Location Airport	Airport name if the event occurred near an airport or involved aircraft taking off from or on approach to an airport.
InjurySeverity	Event Highest Injury	Indicates the highest level of injury among all injuries sustained during the event.
AircraftDamage	Damage	Indicates the severity of damage to the accident aircraft.
AircraftCategory	Aircraft Category	The category of the involved aircraft as per certification and airmen definitions.
RegistrationNumber	Aircraft Registration Number	The full registration (tail) number of the involved aircraft, including the ICAO country prefix.
Make	Aircraft Manufacturer's Full Name	Name of the manufacturer of the involved aircraft.
Model	Aircraft Model	The alphanumeric aircraft model code, including series or derivative identifiers.
AmateurBuilt	Aircraft is a homebuilt (Y/N)	Indicates whether the aircraft is homebuilt (Yes/No).
NumberOfEngines	Number of Engines	The total number of engines on the accident aircraft.
EngineType	Engine Type	Type of engine(s) on the involved aircraft.
FARDescription	Federal Aviation Reg. Part	The regulation part (14 CFR) or authority under which the aircraft was operating at the time of the accident.
Schedule	Indicates whether an air carrier operation was scheduled or not	Specifies if the accident aircraft was operating as a "scheduled or commuter" air carrier or as a "non-scheduled or air taxi" carrier.
PurposeOfFlight	Type of Flying (Per_Bus / Primary)	The primary purpose of flight under 14 CFR part 91, 103, 133, or 137 for the accident aircraft.
AirCarrier	Operator Name & Operator Is Doing Business As	The full name of the operator of the accident aircraft, including carrier, business, or code share names.
TotalFatalInjuries	Injury Total Fatal	The total number of fatal injuries resulting from the event.
TotalSeriousInjuries	Injury Total Serious	The total number of serious injuries resulting from the event.
TotalMinorInjuries	Injury Total Minor	The total number of minor injuries resulting from the event.
TotalUninjured	Non-Injury Total	The total number of individuals who were not injured in the event.
WeatherCondition	Basic weather conditions	The basic weather conditions at the time of the event.
BroadPhaseOfFlight	Phase of Flight	The phase of flight in which the event took place.
ReportStatus	Latest Report Level	The furthest level to which a report has been completed.
PublicationDate	Publication data of the Latest Report Level	The date on which the previous column was published to the web.

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Conclusions and Recommendations

Based on the key insights from our project, we can offer the following recommendations to the Alaska Airmen's Association, to address a spectrum of factors, ultimately improving aviation safety among Alaskan Bush Pilots:

Weather Condition/ Visibility

Findings:
Our findings indicate that the effect of VMC conditions can lead to a 43.8% decrease in the odds of fatal injury in accidents compared to Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC) all else held equal.

Recommendations:

• Encourage members to seek and maintain their instrument ratings.
• Promote workshops and further resources related to operating in IMC conditions.
• Promote the use of weather forecasting and flight planning tools.
• Advocate for improvements in air traffic control procedures.

Airport Proximity

Findings:
Our findings indicate that the effect of accidents occuring at or within 3 miles of an airport leads to an increase in odds of fatal injury by 11.1%.

Recommendations:

• Promote the use of ground proximity warning systems (GPWS).
• Advocate for improvements to airport infrastructure and runway conditions.
• Work with airport authorities to develop and implement safety procedures for low-altitude operations.

Time of Day

Findings:
Our findings indicate that the effect of flying at night contributes to a 9.0% increase in fatal injury in accidents compared to flying in the morning, all else held equal.

Recommendations:

• Promote workshops and resources on night flying safety.
• Promote the use of night vision goggles (NVGs) and other night flying equipment and training where applicable.

General Recommendations:

• Host workshops or seminars on fatal crash prevention.
• Develop and distribute educational materials on fatal crash risk factors.

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Sources

• NTSB Aviation Investigation Database
• Alaska Airmen's Association
• The lifeline of flying: the pilots connecting remote communities in Alaska - The Guardian