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The Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Project was jointly set up by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) WWRP /THORPEX -WCRP in 2013 to promote research in the subseasonal to seasonal timescale and with a focus on high impact weather events. The objectives of S2S are to improve forecast skill and understanding on the timescale that falls between the 2-week (medium-range) and 3-month (seasonal) periods, and also to promote uptake of the initiative by operational centres and the applications community. These are achieved by making the most of the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues raised by the Global Framework of Climate Services (GFCS) relevant to this timescale (Vitart, et al., 2012).
Seamless weather-to-climate forecasts have the potential to be significantly beneficial to society. As part of the Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) process for the ASEAN region, ASEANCOF, a survey of all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the ASEAN region showed that the development of a regional capability in the use of sub-seasonal forecasts was a high priority. Weeks’ ahead is a particularly important planning timescale; if some indication of the likelihood of extreme weather conditions can be provided at that lead-time, it can be especially useful for contingency planning. Given the relatively good skill of temperature and rainfall subseasonal forecasts for the Southeast Asia region (Li & Robertson, 2015; preliminary results from first workshop, S2S-SEA I), influenced by Madden-Julian Oscillation phenomenon, there is potential for benefits of forecast on this timescale to be maximised.
Planning and management activities in the agricultural and food, disaster-risk reduction, health, and water resources often require lead-time that fall into this subseasonal to seasonal time range. These include anticipating hazards arising from early or late onsets, duration and breaks of monsoon seasons. Variations in seasonal rainfall and temperature can lead to major droughts and floods, or hazards from extreme hot and cold conditions impacting the local population. Being ready for such contingencies, through judicious use of the forecasts by operational centres and especially if they have been co-developed with and packaged for end-users, can potentially minimise the losses from weather and climate-related disasters.