Predicting Average Adjusted Gross Income (AGI)

Goal: Develop linear regression model (Spark ML) on NYU DUMBO to Predict Average Adjusted Gross Income (AGI)

Input

• Counts of businesses by NAICS type and size

• Demographics (gender, race)

• Educational Attainment

Output

• Average AGI (total AGI / total population)

4 Datasets Used

• U.S. Census County Business Patterns (CBP)

• U.S. Census American Community Survey (ACS)

  • Demographics & Educational Attainment

• U.S. IRS SOI Tax Stats - County Data

Results

• Model fitted on years 2011 to 2016, evaluated on 2017

• 91% of predications fall within 30% of the target variable

• RMSE of 5.5, R2 value of 0.63

• Predictions and coefficients displayed on Tableau for user interaction