These are data files and computer programs I put together in the lead-up to the UK's 2015 election, to experiment with Stan, and to see how well I could predict the election's vote percentages by aggregating polls.
The workflow here is probably unclear (I've kept the code pretty much as it was, without trying to clean it up or streamline it) but once the Stan models are compiled into programs it amounts to adding a polling result to results-A-1.dat, and then cding into stan/ and running make.
If changed since the last run, the data file gets preprocessed into nat-A.data.R for Stan, and the Stan model executables run for a few hours, producing big output files (tens of megabytes, hence not included here) to be processed by stan/summarize-model-output.R and stan/stan-alpha-summary.R; that last R script makes the pretty stan/stan-alpha-summary.pdf, which plots how the 6 models' predictions have evolved over time. Model-specific R scripts in stan/ can produce stan/Rplots.pdf, which plots a model's output in human-readable form.