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SIR corner cases for doubling time estimation #27

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merged 5 commits into from
May 18, 2020

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marksibrahim
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Our estimate of doubling time does not account for corner cases when the number of confirmed cases is constant or repeated (this leads to infinite or nan estimates). To account for this we experimented with various imputation techniques. The best performing option is to impute the mean for nan doubling times and set the doubling time to large maximum value when the mean is nan or infinite (7 day MAE of ~40 for US across all regions).

@facebook-github-bot facebook-github-bot added the CLA Signed This label is managed by the Facebook bot. Authors need to sign the CLA before a PR can be reviewed. label May 18, 2020
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Looks good!

@marksibrahim marksibrahim merged commit 96b03e3 into master May 18, 2020
@marksibrahim marksibrahim deleted the sir-doubling-time branch May 18, 2020 17:13
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3 participants