Determine a logical gbif records threshold

[SanderDevisscher]

In the current climate matching outputs (see future & present - data overlays) contain all species with at least 1 record in the belgian climate zones (Cfa, Cfb & Dfb). A single/low number of record(s) can be an error, fluke, etc.... and can best be excluded from the list.

But a what number do we place the threshold ?

[timadriaens]

OK, I played around a bit with those. My proposal for criterium:

• minimum number of occurrence records of the species on gbif (n_totaal): >=100 AND
• degree of overlap (in %) with Belgian climate: >=10%

This should leave the following number of species:

• current climate: 18 species

species	Classification	n_totaal	%
Astacopsis gouldi	Cfb	713	99
Austropotamobius pallipes	Cfb	8222	94
Austropotamobius torrentium	Dfb	410	96
Cambarus robustus	Dfb	355	54
Cherax destructor	Cfb	1410	43
Creaserinus fodiens	Dfb	147	16
Engaeus granulatus	Cfb	140	14
Euastacus armatus	Cfb	396	47
Euastacus kershawi	Cfb	219	99
Euastacus spinifer	Cfb	190	53
Euastacus sulcatus	Cfb	118	25
Euastacus yarraensis	Cfb	173	94
Faxonius immunis	Dfb	154	53
Faxonius propinquus	Dfb	344	62
Faxonius rusticus	Dfb	169	17
Faxonius virilis	Dfb	615	39
Paranephrops planifrons	Cfb	263	100
Spinastacoides inermis	Cfb	192	93

• future climate: 27 species

species	Classification	n_totaal	%
Astacopsis gouldi	Cfb	713	81
Austropotamobius torrentium	Cfa	410	91
Cambaroides similis	Cfa	156	19
Cambarus acuminatus	Cfa	211	100
Cambarus hobbsorum	Cfa	317	100
Cambarus latimanus	Cfa	929	100
Cambarus longulus	Cfa	147	100
Cambarus robustus	Cfa	355	83
Cambarus striatus	Cfa	487	100
Cambarus tenebrosus	Cfa	158	100
Cherax destructor	Cfa	1410	33
Creaserinus fodiens	Cfa	147	91
Euastacus armatus	Cfa	396	51
Euastacus kershawi	Cfa	219	45
Euastacus spinifer	Cfa	190	95
Euastacus sulcatus	Cfa	118	98
Euastacus yarraensis	Cfb	173	35
Faxonius immunis	Cfa	154	66
Faxonius propinquus	Cfa	344	39
Faxonius rusticus	Cfa	169	67
Faxonius virilis	Cfa	615	29
Lacunicambarus diogenes	Cfa	332	94
Paranephrops planifrons	Cfa	263	21
Procambarus gracilis	Cfa	110	57
Procambarus spiculifer	Cfa	291	100
Procambarus versutus	Cfa	175	100
Spinastacoides inermis	Cfb	192	100

• current and future together: 16 species are common to both groups

species	n_totaal	current	future
Astacopsis gouldi	713	Cfb	Cfb
Austropotamobius torrentium	410	Dfb	Cfa
Cambarus robustus	355	Dfb	Cfa
Cherax destructor	1410	Cfb	Cfa
Creaserinus fodiens	147	Dfb	Cfa
Euastacus armatus	396	Cfb	Cfa
Euastacus kershawi	219	Cfb	Cfa
Euastacus spinifer	190	Cfb	Cfa
Euastacus sulcatus	118	Cfb	Cfa
Euastacus yarraensis	173	Cfb	Cfb
Faxonius immunis	154	Dfb	Cfa
Faxonius propinquus	344	Dfb	Cfa
Faxonius rusticus	169	Dfb	Cfa
Faxonius virilis	615	Dfb	Cfa
Paranephrops planifrons	263	Cfb	Cfa
Spinastacoides inermis	192	Cfb	Cfb

[timadriaens]

I find it striking though that none of the species occur twice in both climate classifications for Belgium.

[timadriaens]

If we are a bit more severe on the criteria:

=150 records, 20% overlap

current: 14
future: 22
both: 13 species

=200 records, 20% overlap

current: 10
future: 15
both: 9 species

@adrienlatli can you take a look at the above list and tell us if that is workable? Do we want to land at around 30 spp to risk assess or do we go for less?

[adrienlatli]

Great Job Sander thx.

I think 30 spp to risk assess is realizable by Romain. This number could be improve if they find new species in shop but I'm think it's still feasible.
I need to present these results to Romain and Etienne and I will come back soon.

@timadriaens : If you can add Romain to Github it's must be usefull :-) (WILLEPUT Romain Romain.Willeput@ulb.be)

[timadriaens]

ok! we need his github name for that

[timadriaens]

@adrienlatli OK, calculating back from those 30 species I propose the following cut-offs (it appears the total number of records on gbif is more limiting than the degree of KG overlap):

• n_totaal >= 90
• perc_climate >= 0.20

This leaves exactly 30 species.

species

Astacopsis franklinii
Astacopsis gouldi
Austropotamobius torrentium
Cambarus acuminatus
Cambarus bartonii
Cambarus hobbsorum
Cambarus latimanus
Cambarus longirostris
Cambarus longulus
Cambarus robustus
Cambarus striatus
Cambarus tenebrosus
Cherax destructor
Creaserinus fodiens
Euastacus armatus
Euastacus kershawi
Euastacus spinifer
Euastacus sulcatus
Euastacus yarraensis
Faxonius immunis
Faxonius palmeri
Faxonius propinquus
Faxonius rusticus
Faxonius virilis
Lacunicambarus diogenes
Paranephrops planifrons
Procambarus gracilis
Procambarus spiculifer
Procambarus versutus
Spinastacoides inermis

@SanderDevisscher can you rerun using those selection criteria?

[SanderDevisscher]

ok! we need his github name for that

@adrienlatli can you provide his github username ?