markovchains

Prediction of an event N based on previous (N-1) events

Yes. That is right. I can see the future and I can read your mind.

Actually, I can't... but Markov can.

To try it, just type a sentence in English on the first form on the top. We will provide a list of words that you might be typing next (we can indeed read your mind). You can also make a selection of the word on the form and keep typing.

On the right you will see a distribution of the alternatives we found so far. The (kinda exponential) distribution is a visual description of how certain we are about each of your possible future choices.

This is a demonstration of the use of Markov Chains for the prediction of sequenced events. This type of prediction assumes that a probability of an event ocurring at time $T = t$ is affected by previous events occurring from $T = 0$ to $T = t-1$.

This techinique is used on several domains like genetic sequencing, speech recognition (this notable example here) and my favorite: prediction of the next price tick in financial time series and random walks.

If you are looking for details, the data analysis leading to this prototype is described in a separate report. You can also refer to a set of slides describing the background and the overal structure of this exercise.

Have fun!