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fix over-estimated seven pair win rate #2

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Ledenel opened this issue Dec 30, 2018 · 1 comment
Open

fix over-estimated seven pair win rate #2

Ledenel opened this issue Dec 30, 2018 · 1 comment
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algorithm Fancy algorithm idea enhancement New feature or request

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@Ledenel
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Ledenel commented Dec 30, 2018

For now, a hand with drawn tiles will be considered as win:

  1. IFF the union of the hand and drawings contains at least a win pattern.

But for seven pair win pattern, it will over-estimated much more than normal type wining. Infering from 1), the model will assume that all tiles which will form a pair will be choosen to keep in hand, but it is really hard (nearly impossible) to predict which tile will eventually form a pair (it seems all the same). The prediction from player is not statically significant different from random guessing.

For comparasion, 23s has nearly 2 times chances than 13s to form a meld, so choosing is quite easy.

(i.e. 1155m123345p5566s, 6 draws, it will consider to discard 1/5p to expect seven-pair wining, which is not acceptable by most of the players.)

@Ledenel
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Ledenel commented Jan 23, 2019

Since 7-pair wait state is very simple, Markov chain can be used to modeling random selecting instead of running Monet Carlo simulation.

@Ledenel Ledenel added enhancement New feature or request algorithm Fancy algorithm idea labels Nov 21, 2019
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