update tiebreakers

evidence/pages/nba/in-season tournament/index.md

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ sources:
 ```wildcard_standings
 SELECT *
 FROM ${tournament_standings}
-ORDER BY conf, wins DESC, losses, margin DESC
+ORDER BY conf, made_tournament_pct1 DESC
 ```
 
 # NBA In-season Tournament
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@ New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. Th
 
 ## Standings
 
-_It should be noted that predicted results do not have tiebreakers applied._
+_It should be noted that predicted results have tiebreakers approximated._
 <Tabs>
     <Tab label="East">
 

evidence/sources/nba/tournament_results.sql

@@ -3,8 +3,8 @@ SELECT
     winning_team,
     tournament_group,
     sum(made_tournament) / 10000.0 as won_group,
-    sum(made_wildcard) / 30000.0 as made_wildcard,
-    sum(made_tournament) / 10000.0 + sum(made_wildcard) / 30000.0 as made_tournament,
+    sum(made_wildcard) / 10000.0 as made_wildcard,
+    sum(made_tournament) / 10000.0 + sum(made_wildcard) / 10000.0 as made_tournament,
     avg(wins) as wins,
     avg(losses) as losses
 GROUP BY ALL

transform/models/nba/analysis/reg_season_predictions.sql

@@ -19,6 +19,10 @@ SELECT
     COUNT(*) AS occurances,
     {{ american_odds( 'home_team_win_probability/10000' ) }} AS american_odds,
     type,
+    actual_home_team_score,
+    actual_visiting_team_score,
+    CASE WHEN actual_home_team_score > actual_visiting_team_score 
+        THEN actual_margin*-1 ELSE actual_margin END AS actual_margin,
     (H.pts + V.pts) / 2.0 AS avg_score,
     ROUND( CASE
         WHEN home_team_win_probability/10000 >= 0.50 THEN ROUND( -30.564 * home_team_win_probability/10000 + 14.763, 1 )

transform/models/nba/analysis/tournament_end.sql

@@ -44,6 +44,25 @@ cte_results_with_group AS (
     LEFT JOIN cte_losses L ON T.team = L.losing_team AND scenarios.scenario_id = L.scenario_id
 ),
 
+cte_home_margin AS (
+    SELECT
+        T.Team,
+        SUM(COALESCE(-H.actual_margin,-H.implied_line)) AS home_pt_diff
+    FROM {{ ref( 'nba_teams') }} T 
+    LEFT JOIN {{ ref( 'reg_season_predictions' ) }} H ON H.home_team = T.team AND H.type = 'tournament' AND H.winning_team = H.home_team
+    GROUP BY ALL
+),
+
+cte_visitor_margin AS (
+    SELECT
+        T.Team,
+        SUM(COALESCE(V.actual_margin,V.implied_line)) AS visitor_pt_diff
+    FROM {{ ref( 'nba_teams') }} T 
+    LEFT JOIN {{ ref( 'reg_season_predictions' ) }} V ON V.visiting_team = T.team AND V.type = 'tournament' AND V.winning_team = V.home_team
+    GROUP BY ALL
+),
+
+
 /* tiebreaking criteria: https://www.nba.com/news/in-season-tournament-101
 
   • Head-to-head record in the Group Stage;
@@ -56,26 +75,42 @@ cte_results_with_group AS (
 
 cte_ranked_wins AS (
     SELECT
-        *,
+        R.*,
+        home_pt_diff + visitor_pt_diff AS pt_diff,
         --no tiebreaker, so however row number handles order ties will need to be dealt with
-        ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY scenario_id, tournament_group ORDER BY wins DESC, winning_team DESC ) AS season_rank
-    FROM cte_results_with_group
+        ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY scenario_id, tournament_group ORDER BY wins DESC, pt_diff DESC ) AS group_rank
+    FROM cte_results_with_group R
+    LEFT JOIN cte_home_margin H ON H.team = R.winning_team
+    LEFT JOIN cte_visitor_margin V ON V.team = R.winning_team
 
 ),
 
+cte_wildcard AS (
+    SELECT
+        scenario_id,
+        winning_team,
+        conf,
+        pt_diff,
+        group_rank,
+        ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY scenario_id, conf ORDER BY pt_diff DESC ) AS wildcard_rank
+    FROM cte_ranked_wins R
+    WHERE group_rank = 2
+),
+
 cte_made_tournament AS (
     SELECT
-        *,
+        W.*,
         CASE
-            WHEN season_rank = 1 THEN 1
+            WHEN W.group_rank = 1 THEN 1
             ELSE 0
         END AS made_tournament,
         CASE
-            WHEN season_rank = 2 THEN 1
+            WHEN WC.wildcard_rank = 1 AND WC.wildcard_rank IS NOT NULL THEN 1
             ELSE 0
         END AS made_wildcard,
-        tournament_group || '-' || season_rank::text AS seed
-    FROM cte_ranked_wins
+        W.tournament_group || '-' || W.group_rank::text AS seed
+    FROM cte_ranked_wins W
+    LEFT JOIN cte_wildcard WC ON WC.winning_team = W.winning_team and WC.scenario_id = W.scenario_id
 )
 
 SELECT 

transform/models/nba/simulator/reg_season/reg_season_simulator.sql

@@ -8,7 +8,10 @@ SELECT
         WHEN {{ elo_calc( 'S.home_team_elo_rating', 'S.visiting_team_elo_rating', var('nba_elo_offset') ) }}  >= R.rand_result THEN S.home_team
         ELSE S.visiting_team
     END AS winning_team,
-    COALESCE(LR.include_actuals, false) AS include_actuals
+    COALESCE(LR.include_actuals, false) AS include_actuals,
+    LR.home_team_score AS actual_home_team_score,
+    LR.visiting_team_score AS actual_visiting_team_score,
+    LR.margin AS actual_margin
 FROM {{ ref( 'nba_schedules' ) }} S
 LEFT JOIN {{ ref( 'nba_random_num_gen' ) }} R ON R.game_id = S.game_id
 LEFT JOIN {{ ref( 'nba_latest_results' ) }} LR ON LR.game_id = S.game_id