In_season_tournament

data/nba/nba_results.csv

@@ -66,3 +66,14 @@ Wed Nov 1 2023,8:30p,Chicago Bulls,105,Dallas Mavericks,114,Box Score,,20103,Ame
 Wed Nov 1 2023,9:00p,Memphis Grizzlies,109,Utah Jazz,133,Box Score,,18206,Delta Center,
 Wed Nov 1 2023,10:00p,Sacramento Kings,101,Golden State Warriors,102,Box Score,,18064,Chase Center,
 Wed Nov 1 2023,10:00p,Los Angeles Clippers,125,Los Angeles Lakers,130,Box Score,OT,18997,Crypto.com Arena,
+Thu Nov 2 2023,7:00p,Toronto Raptors,99,Philadelphia 76ers,114,Box Score,,19773,Wells Fargo Center,
+Thu Nov 2 2023,8:00p,Detroit Pistons,116,New Orleans Pelicans,125,Box Score,,15884,Smoothie King Center,
+Thu Nov 2 2023,9:00p,Orlando Magic,115,Utah Jazz,113,Box Score,,18206,Delta Center,
+Thu Nov 2 2023,10:00p,San Antonio Spurs,132,Phoenix Suns,121,Box Score,,17071,Footprint Center,
+Fri Nov 3 2023,7:00p,Cleveland Cavaliers,116,Indiana Pacers,121,Box Score,,16744,Gainbridge Fieldhouse,In-Season Tournament
+Fri Nov 3 2023,7:30p,New York Knicks,105,Milwaukee Bucks,110,Box Score,,17717,Fiserv Forum,In-Season Tournament
+Fri Nov 3 2023,8:00p,Brooklyn Nets,109,Chicago Bulls,107,Box Score,,20645,United Center,In-Season Tournament
+Fri Nov 3 2023,8:00p,Washington Wizards,114,Miami Heat,121,Box Score,,19660,Kaseya Center,In-Season Tournament
+Fri Nov 3 2023,8:00p,Golden State Warriors,141,Oklahoma City Thunder,139,Box Score,,16827,Paycom Center,In-Season Tournament
+Fri Nov 3 2023,10:00p,Dallas Mavericks,114,Denver Nuggets,125,Box Score,,19729,Ball Arena,In-Season Tournament
+Fri Nov 3 2023,10:00p,Memphis Grizzlies,113,Portland Trail Blazers,115,Box Score,OT,18592,Moda Center,In-Season Tournament

data/nba/nba_team_ratings.csv

@@ -1,31 +1,31 @@
-team,team_long,conf,elo_rating,win_total
-BOS,Boston Celtics,East,1710,54.7
-MIL,Milwaukee Bucks,East,1702,53.9
-MIA,Miami Heat,East,1624,45.3
-BRK,Brooklyn Nets,East,1563,37.3
-PHO,Phoenix Suns,West,1684,51.5
-LAC,Los Angeles Clippers,West,1646,46.5
-PHI,Philadelphia 76ers,East,1652,48.1
-DEN,Denver Nuggets,West,1694,52.5
-GSW,Golden State Warriors,West,1661,48.3
-DAL,Dallas Mavericks,West,1625,44.3
-MEM,Memphis Grizzlies,West,1638,45.9
-UTA,Utah Jazz,West,1552,35.5
-ATL,Atlanta Hawks,East,1603,42.5
-NOP,New Orleans Pelicans,West,1626,44.5
-TOR,Toronto Raptors,East,1554,36.5
-MIN,Minnesota Timberwolves,West,1629,44.7
-LAL,Los Angeles Lakers,West,1654,47.5
-POR,Portland Trail Blazers,West,1491,28.5
-CHI,Chicago Bulls,East,1563,37.5
-CHO,Charlotte Hornets,East,1506,30.9
-NYK,New York Knicks,East,1631,45.5
-IND,Indiana Pacers,East,1573,38.7
-CLE,Cleveland Cavaliers,East,1671,50.5
-SAC,Sacramento Kings,West,1631,44.5
-SAS,San Antonio Spurs,West,1498,29.1
-WAS,Washington Wizards,East,1445,24.5
-ORL,Orlando Magic,East,1555,36.7
-DET,Detroit Pistons,East,1475,27.5
-OKC,Oklahoma City Thunder,West,1626,44.5
-HOU,Houston Rockets,West,1516,31.5
+team,team_long,conf,elo_rating,win_total,tournament_group
+BOS,Boston Celtics,East,1710,54.7,east_c
+MIL,Milwaukee Bucks,East,1702,53.9,east_b
+MIA,Miami Heat,East,1624,45.3,east_b
+BRK,Brooklyn Nets,East,1563,37.3,east_c
+PHO,Phoenix Suns,West,1684,51.5,west_a
+LAC,Los Angeles Clippers,West,1646,46.5,west_b
+PHI,Philadelphia 76ers,East,1652,48.1,east_a
+DEN,Denver Nuggets,West,1694,52.5,west_b
+GSW,Golden State Warriors,West,1661,48.3,west_c
+DAL,Dallas Mavericks,West,1625,44.3,west_b
+MEM,Memphis Grizzlies,West,1638,45.9,west_a
+UTA,Utah Jazz,West,1552,35.5,west_a
+ATL,Atlanta Hawks,East,1603,42.5,east_a
+NOP,New Orleans Pelicans,West,1626,44.5,west_b
+TOR,Toronto Raptors,East,1554,36.5,east_c
+MIN,Minnesota Timberwolves,West,1629,44.7,west_c
+LAL,Los Angeles Lakers,West,1654,47.5,west_a
+POR,Portland Trail Blazers,West,1491,28.5,west_a
+CHI,Chicago Bulls,East,1563,37.5,east_c
+CHO,Charlotte Hornets,East,1506,30.9,east_b
+NYK,New York Knicks,East,1631,45.5,east_b
+IND,Indiana Pacers,East,1573,38.7,east_a
+CLE,Cleveland Cavaliers,East,1671,50.5,east_a
+SAC,Sacramento Kings,West,1631,44.5,west_c
+SAS,San Antonio Spurs,West,1498,29.1,west_c
+WAS,Washington Wizards,East,1445,24.5,east_b
+ORL,Orlando Magic,East,1555,36.7,east_c
+DET,Detroit Pistons,East,1475,27.5,east_a
+OKC,Oklahoma City Thunder,West,1626,44.5,west_c
+HOU,Houston Rockets,West,1516,31.5,west_b

evidence/pages/nba/in-season tournament/index.md

@@ -0,0 +1,189 @@
+```future_games
+SELECT
+    date,
+    visiting_team as visitor,
+    visiting_team_elo_rating AS visitor_ELO,
+    home_team as home, 
+    home_team_elo_rating AS home_ELO,
+    home_team_win_probability/10000 AS home_team_win_pct1,
+    american_odds
+FROM reg_season_predictions
+WHERE include_actuals = false AND winning_team = home_team and type = 'tournament'
+ORDER BY game_id
+```
+
+```past_games
+SELECT *,
+    CASE
+        WHEN (home_team_win_probability > 5000.0 AND winning_team = home_team)
+            OR (home_team_win_probability < 5000.0 AND winning_team = visiting_team)
+            THEN 1 ELSE 0 END AS 'accurate_guess'
+FROM reg_season_predictions
+WHERE include_actuals = true and type = 'tournament'
+ORDER BY game_id
+```
+
+```standings
+WITH cte_wins AS (
+    SELECT
+        S.winning_team,
+        COUNT(*) AS wins
+    FROM ${past_games} S
+    GROUP BY ALL
+),
+cte_losses AS (
+    SELECT
+        CASE WHEN S.home_team = S.winning_team 
+            THEN S.visiting_team ELSE S.home_team
+        END AS losing_team,
+        COUNT(*) AS losses
+    FROM ${past_games} S
+    GROUP BY ALL
+)
+SELECT 
+    T.team,
+    '/nba/teams/' || T.team as team_link,
+    T.conf,
+    COALESCE(W.wins,0) AS wins,
+    COALESCE(L.losses,0) as losses,
+    COALESCE(W.wins,0) || '-' || COALESCE(L.losses,0) AS record,
+    T.tournament_group as group,
+    R.won_group AS won_group_pct1,
+    R.made_wildcard AS won_wildcard_pct1,
+    R.made_tournament AS made_tournament_pct1,
+    ROUND(R.wins,1) || '-' || ROUND(R.losses,1) AS proj_record 
+FROM nba_teams T
+    LEFT JOIN cte_wins W ON W.winning_team = T.team
+    LEFT JOIN cte_losses L ON L .losing_team = T.team
+    LEFT JOIN ${tournament_results} R ON R.winning_team = T.team
+GROUP BY ALL
+ORDER BY T.tournament_group, made_tournament_pct1 DESC
+```
+
+
+```tournament_results
+FROM tournament_end
+SELECT
+    winning_team,
+    tournament_group,
+    sum(made_tournament) / 10000.0 as won_group,
+    sum(made_wildcard) / 30000.0 as made_wildcard,
+    sum(made_tournament) / 10000.0 + sum(made_wildcard) / 30000.0 as made_tournament,
+    avg(wins) as wins,
+    avg(losses) as losses
+GROUP BY ALL
+ORDER BY tournament_group, made_tournament DESC
+```
+
+```most_recent_games
+SELECT
+    game_date as date,
+    vstm as visiting_team,
+    '@' as " ",
+    hmtm as home_team,
+    home_team_score || ' - ' || visiting_team_score as score,
+    winning_team,
+    ABS(elo_change) AS elo_change_num1
+FROM nba_results_log RL
+WHERE RL.type = 'tournament'
+ORDER BY game_date desc
+```
+
+# NBA In-season Tournament
+
+New for the 2023-2024 season, the NBA has introduced an In-Season Tournament. The tournament consists of Group Play followed by single elimination knock out rounds. You can learn about it [here](https://www.nba.com/news/in-season-tournament-101).
+
+## Standings
+
+_It should be noted that predicted results do not have tiebreakers applied._
+<Tabs>
+    <Tab label="East">
+
+        ### Group A Standings
+
+        <DataTable data={standings.filter(d => d.group === "east_a")} link=team_link rows=5>
+        <Column id=team/>
+        <Column id=record/>
+        <Column id=proj_record/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        </DataTable>
+
+        ### Group B Standings
+
+        <DataTable data={standings.filter(d => d.group === "east_b")} link=team_link rows=5>
+        <Column id=team/>
+        <Column id=record/>
+        <Column id=proj_record/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        </DataTable>
+
+        ### Group C Standings
+
+        <DataTable data={standings.filter(d => d.group === "east_c")} link=team_link rows=5>
+        <Column id=team/>
+        <Column id=record/>
+        <Column id=proj_record/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        </DataTable>
+
+    </Tab>
+    <Tab label="West">
+
+        ### Group A Standings
+
+        <DataTable data={standings.filter(d => d.group === "west_a")} link=team_link rows=5>
+        <Column id=team/>
+        <Column id=record/>
+        <Column id=proj_record/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        </DataTable>
+
+        ### Group B Standings
+
+        <DataTable data={standings.filter(d => d.group === "west_b")} link=team_link rows=5>
+        <Column id=team/>
+        <Column id=record/>
+        <Column id=proj_record/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        </DataTable>
+
+        ### Group C Standings
+
+        <DataTable data={standings.filter(d => d.group === "west_c")} link=team_link rows=5>
+        <Column id=team/>
+        <Column id=record/>
+        <Column id=proj_record/>
+        <Column id=won_group_pct1/>
+        <Column id=won_wildcard_pct1/>
+        <Column id=made_tournament_pct1/>
+        </DataTable>
+
+    </Tab>
+</Tabs>
+
+## Recent Games
+
+<DataTable
+    data={most_recent_games} 
+    rows=5
+/>
+
+## Upcoming Games
+
+<DataTable
+    data={future_games} 
+/>
+
+## Predicted Matchups - Knockout Round
+
+Once I have a good method to predict winnders of each group and break ties, I will add probabilities for each of the 9 games in the tournament, both which teams will play in the games as well as the predicted winners.

transform/models/_nba_docs.yml

@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ models:
       - name: type
         tests:
           - accepted_values:
-              values: ['reg_season','playin_r1','playin_r2','playoffs_r1','playoffs_r2','playoffs_r3','playoffs_r4']
+              values: ['reg_season','playin_r1','playin_r2','playoffs_r1','playoffs_r2','playoffs_r3','playoffs_r4','tournament']
       - name: series_id
       - name: visiting_conf
       - name: visiting_team

transform/models/nba/analysis/reg_season_predictions.sql

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 SELECT 
     game_id,
+    date,
     home_team,
     home_team_elo_rating,
     visiting_team,
@@ -8,9 +9,7 @@ SELECT
     winning_team,
     include_actuals,
     COUNT(*) AS occurances,
-    {{ american_odds( 'home_team_win_probability/10000' ) }} AS american_odds
+    {{ american_odds( 'home_team_win_probability/10000' ) }} AS american_odds,
+    type
 FROM {{ ref( 'reg_season_simulator' ) }} S
-    GROUP BY ALL
-
-
-
+    GROUP BY ALL

transform/models/nba/analysis/tournament_end.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+WITH cte_wins AS (
+    SELECT
+        S.scenario_id,
+        S.winning_team,
+        CASE
+            WHEN S.winning_team = S.home_team THEN S.home_conf
+            ELSE S.visiting_conf
+        END AS conf,
+        COUNT(*) AS wins
+    FROM {{ ref( 'reg_season_simulator' ) }} S
+    WHERE S.type = 'tournament'
+    GROUP BY ALL
+),
+
+cte_losses AS (
+    SELECT
+        S.scenario_id,
+        CASE WHEN S.home_team = S.winning_team 
+            THEN S.visiting_team ELSE S.home_team
+        END AS losing_team,
+        CASE
+            WHEN S.winning_team = S.home_team THEN S.visiting_conf
+            ELSE S.home_conf
+        END AS conf,
+        COUNT(*) AS losses
+    FROM {{ ref( 'reg_season_simulator' ) }} S
+    WHERE S.type = 'tournament'
+    GROUP BY ALL
+),
+
+cte_results_with_group AS (
+    SELECT 
+        scenarios.scenario_id,
+        T.team as winning_team,
+        T.conf,
+        COALESCE(W.wins,0) AS wins,
+        COALESCE(L.losses,0) as losses,
+        T.tournament_group
+    FROM {{ ref( 'nba_teams') }} T 
+    LEFT JOIN ( 
+        SELECT I.generate_series AS scenario_id
+        FROM generate_series(1, {{ var( 'scenarios' ) }} ) AS I) AS scenarios ON 1=1
+    LEFT JOIN cte_wins W ON T.team = W.winning_team AND scenarios.scenario_id = W.scenario_id
+    LEFT JOIN cte_losses L ON T.team = L.losing_team AND scenarios.scenario_id = L.scenario_id
+),
+
+/* tiebreaking criteria: https://www.nba.com/news/in-season-tournament-101
+
+  • Head-to-head record in the Group Stage;
+  • Point differential in the Group Stage;
+  • Total points scored in the Group Stage;
+  • Regular season record from the 2022-23 NBA regular season; and
+  • Random drawing (in the unlikely scenario that two or more teams are still tied following the previous tiebreakers).
+
+*/
+
+cte_ranked_wins AS (
+    SELECT
+        *,
+        --no tiebreaker, so however row number handles order ties will need to be dealt with
+        ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY scenario_id, tournament_group ORDER BY wins DESC, winning_team DESC ) AS season_rank
+    FROM cte_results_with_group
+
+),
+
+cte_made_tournament AS (
+    SELECT
+        *,
+        CASE
+            WHEN season_rank = 1 THEN 1
+            ELSE 0
+        END AS made_tournament,
+        CASE
+            WHEN season_rank = 2 THEN 1
+            ELSE 0
+        END AS made_wildcard,
+        tournament_group || '-' || season_rank::text AS seed
+    FROM cte_ranked_wins
+)
+
+SELECT 
+    MP.*,
+    LE.elo_rating,
+    {{ var( 'sim_start_game_id' ) }} AS sim_start_game_id
+FROM cte_made_tournament MP
+LEFT JOIN {{ ref( 'nba_latest_elo' ) }} LE ON LE.team = MP.winning_team

transform/models/nba/prep/nba_reg_season_schedule.sql

@@ -1,7 +1,9 @@
 SELECT
     S.id AS game_id,
     S.date as date,
-    'reg_season' AS type,
+    CASE WHEN s.notes = 'In-Season Tournament' 
+        THEN 'tournament' ELSE 'reg_season' END 
+    AS type,
     0 as series_id,
     V.conf AS visiting_conf,
     V.team AS visiting_team,