Various bugs with Argentine Confederation

[rogerburks]

The series of events with the Argentine Confederation, Entre Rios, and Buenos Aires (the country) seem to be bugged, most especially when the player is one of these countries. Following the historical path does not result in historically plausible outcomes. Most especially, playing as Entre Rios tends to cause things to go haywire. While I plan to avoid railroading, I do not wish to allow the historical path to be unlikely.

1. If Entre Rios wins the war with the Argentine Confederation circa 1850-1851 (the likely result because of "big army"), then there should be a choice to make the Argentine Confederation a puppet or combine with it as the new Argentine Confederation with the capital residing at Paraná. The event ending the war will be redesigned to reflect this. Because the Rosas were not unitarians, no casus belli to unite the nation is given to Argentine Confederation at this time.

2. Buenos Aires needs to free from either of these situations by event ~September 1852 to 1853, if at peace. If Entre Rios loses the war in step 1 (therefore Argentine Confederation is independent and has a capital in Buenos Aires), then Buenos Aires frees from the Rosas of the Argentine Confederation. A free casus belli must exist for Argentine Confederation or Entre Rios to start a war to reclaim Buenos Aires into the Argentine Confederation. Buenos Aires was run by unitarians, and therefore gets a Unite the Nation casus belli for both Argentine Confederation and Entre Rios.

3. I need to check to see if Buenos Aires has the option to make Argentina, if it somehow survives step 2.

4. Currently HFM removes Entre Rios cores from its provinces after the 1850 war. This does not seem advisable, because there was no historical guarantee that the nation would unite or stay united. I propose to retain these cores. I think it may be more plausible to remove Argentine Confederation cores if Argentina unites, however.

5. The Argentine Federalists event needs some minor grammar fixes. Additionally, the event is ahistorical in that it starts a war where Corrientes is without allies, versus the Argentine Confederation and Entre Rios, when in reality this was a war began by Uruguay (after France replaced its ruler) versus Buenos Aires with all provinces except Entre Rios rebelling.

6. Governmental changes that were more plausible for Buenos Aires were wrongly assigned to the Argentine Confederation as part of the Urquiza event.

7. Slavery went from Freedom of the Womb to abolished in the argentine constitution. Note that Buenos Aires was therefore the last to adopt this.

What about?: Corrientes--After the 1838 war it should become part of the Argentine Confederation if it loses, and unification of Argentina, or the 1865 Paraguayan War, can remove its cores. If it wins the 1838 war, it should become independent but retain Argentine Confederation cores.

Paraná capital of ARC after the 1850 war--While this happened, it could be jarring for the player to tag-switch. I will test it out and see how it feels.

The Paraguayan War of 1865--Creating this war is possibly a way of establishing a plausible reason to remove cores of Entre Rios and Corrientes, if the triple alliance of defenders (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay) wins. A player running Paraguay may find this inconvenient, but the war happened. There is no reason to remove cores if the triple alliance loses, which would have been a blow to unitary Argentina.

Externally-formed Argentina--Currently this removes cores of Buenos Aires, Corrientes, and Entre Rios. I remove this because it does not make sense to believe that these cores would stop having influence under such circumstances. If anything, recent external rule and influence would increase the likelihood that these cores would affect their populaces.

[rogerburks]

Progress: 1. Entre Rios is successfully making Argentine Confederation a puppet. I think two capitals cannot exist in the same place, and so we should try to use our imaginations on that. 2-3. Buenos Aires is successfully releasing and can win its civil war, installing the proper government. 4. Any core removal is now done much later and only upon unitary events. 6-7. Fixed.

Additionally, Corrientes and Entre Rios get an event to allow them to join an existing Argentina without a war, or they can refuse to join, but argentine cores are added to them regardless. I will upload for testing once I cut down on errors.

As a note, it is very possible for Entre Rios to lose its war. Buenos Aires has a massive advantage in its war, but maybe that is the way it should be. Fighting them is not impossible, but one would be at a major disadvantage against Buenos Aires in its war.

[rogerburks]

Playtesting revealed that there are some bugs in the Uruguay history files, which I will fix. Specifically, Corrientes' or Uruguay's role in the Big War seems to be sometimes reversed, sometimes depending on if the player is one or the other.

[moretrim]

The Paraguayan War of 1865--Creating this war is possibly a way of establishing a plausible reason to remove cores of Entre Rios and Corrientes, if the triple alliance of defenders (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay) wins. A player running Paraguay may find this inconvenient, but the war happened. There is no reason to remove cores if the triple alliance loses, which would have been a blow to unitary Argentina.

I found the following:

[…] Argentine historians have generally defined 1880 as the year when the process of national organization was consummated. This was the year when General Julia A. Roca, the "hero of the desert," won the national elections and became the president of Argentina (1880-86). […]

From The Argentina Reader (2002), chapter IV §2.

I suggest we use this as a reference to make a 'final deadline' event: any country which is at peace after 1880 under appropriate ideology/policies loses the cores it doesn't hold, but also expels competing cores from the lands it has secured. (By appropriate ideology and policies we could choose it to mean that a non-extremist, non-jingoistic, representative government is in place—let's leave the details for when/if we go around implementing such an event.) More quoting as to what I mean:

[…] Also in 1880, Roca's troops managed to crush the last armed insurrection in Buenos Aires, whose political class had been reluctant to yield to the legal requirments of national organization. Immediately thereafter, the city of Buenos Aires was federalized and declared the capital of Argentina. […]

Ibid.

In gameplay terms when the Argentine Confederation is holding Buenos Aires cores these provinces are still in some sense 'contested' from abroad (i.e. the tag, if still existing, has a CB to reclaim it) but also from within. Past the deadline the cores are removed and Argentina proper completes its political and national transition.

Before that deadline is in place we can have events such as the Triple Alliance war still play out and alter cores of course.

[moretrim]

We should implement a way to implement the opposition of Federalists vs. Unitarians even across national boundaries. Ideally so that e.g. alliances between Entre Rios, Corrientes, and Brazil form organically. Plans so far:

• per party policy decisions to set a country modifier, leading to relations events

[rogerburks]

I'm adding a continuously edited timeline for all this, with new historical information being requested as discovered. That's because most modern research does not focus in the 1850's--it takes a little digging sometimes to find good sources. Key: ARG = Argentina. ARC = Argentine Confderation. BRZ = Brazil. CHL = Chile. CRT = Corrientes. ENT = Entre Rios. PRG = Paraguay. SBA = Buenos Aires. URU = Uruguay.

Jan.1.1836: Colorados (as Jacobin Rebels) are in the process of taking over Uruguay.
- This is currently railroaded in default HFM (3 brigades of rebels versus 1 infantry URU brigade). I am considering nerfing the Colorados because their force may be far larger than anything realistic for URU.

~1838: Corrientes revolt, CRT & URU against the Rosas government of the Argentine Confederation.
- If (when) Colorados take over URU, they will incite CRT revolt. A player has the option to refuse this. This is smart because there is hardly any chance of CRT and URU winning. Default HFM gives UK and France free humiliation CB's on ARC here, which agrees with history somewhat (they blockaded).
- Necessary conditions: URU must be liberal. CRT must exist as a puppet of ARC. ARC must be a presidential dictatorship.
- Currently working as amended. If losing, CRT is a puppet. If somehow CRT wins it is free.

~ 1840's-1850: Montevideo is sieged for 9 years by the Blancos (Conservatives).
- This is possibly too boring to implement. It would be agonizing for a player as URU. Historically, this was relieved by British ships and broken by Urquiza.

~1850: Urquiza's Statement: ENT (Urquiza) accepts Rosas' annual resignation as dictator of ARC.
- It turns out that this was not a real resignation at all unless the player says so. The player has considerable leeway here on both sides. Corrientes existed historically here and allied with ENT, but I think its existence is not a necessary condition for this event.
- Necessary conditions: ENT must exist. ARC must be a presidential dictatorship. At least 1 neighboring country must support ENT.
- Currently not working (in progress) because of trouble getting ENT tuned up enough to have any chance of winning as AI. The Ejército Grande (Grand Army--in the files as Big Army) needs to be buffed. Neighboring countries never join. Probably fixable by using Brazil as the war leader. I think that possibly HFM's method of flagging neighboring allies of ENT is not working. Maybe I should move ARC capital to Tucumán if they lose? Historically it went to Paraná but I do not want to annex a victorious ENT.
- Note that a Rosas victory is how ARG is sometimes observed to be a monarchy in normal HFM. There are several possible outcomes. I want to allow a Rosas victory to allow a potentially easier route to La Plata formation, because it would create a vacuum of power that Rosas could capitalize upon.

~ 1851-1861: Buenos Aires (SBA) secedes because its liberal unitarian government objects to Urquiza's conservative federalist Constitution.
-Necessary conditions: ARC must be a puppet of ENT or must exist as a presidential dictatorship.
- Currently working. The player has considerable control over this. I am thinking about adding some stipulations to make AI Buenos Aires co-exist with ARC until 1861 as in real life. Fixed SBA to have a liberal upper house, liberal voting base, and liberty national value.
- Maybe should add an option to "permanently" form a Republic of the Rio de La Plata from SBA, since that was discussed and rejected at the time historically. Of course, ARC/ARG cores would not be removed.

~ 1859: Battle of Cepeda. IRL Buenos Aires lost this and was reincorporated into ARC. This is not currently in game, and it may not be a great idea to add it. It could simply confuse things since the results were not final.

~1861: Battle of Pavón. IRL Buenos Aires has seceded again and this time won because Urquiza left the battlefield (I do not yet know why). After this, Buenos Aires was again the capital of a nominally federalist Argentina.
- Currently working as I had envisioned it. Possibly I want to tweak the government to make it less like SBA's. Mitre (the liberal leader) won the next election, and so it is best if the voting base of ARG formed in this way is liberal at least at the start.

1862-1879: To be added. Many battles in the Argentine civil wars. Could be simulated with province debuffs.

1865: War of the Triple Alliance (BRZ, ARG, URU versus Paraguay). This does not yet exist in HFM if I'm seeing things correctly, but it needs to exist. This may be a good time to remove ENT and CRT cores if they are part of a victorious ARG.

1880: Buenos Aires rebellion and Federalization of Buenos Aires.
- Definitely needs to be added. Does not currently exist in game. I think potentially ENT and CRT cores could be removed before this under certain circumstances, maybe even ARC cores, but this conflict could result in centralization reform changes. It makes sense to retain SBA cores until now at least, and remove them if they lose this.

1910: Argentina centennial.
- If ARG does not exist yet, there should be unrest and a potential formation of the country.

[rogerburks]

I'll add some historical notes here. No need to necessarily act on them exactly now, but maybe something to think about after the framework of the Platine War and Buenos Aires secession are stabilized:

Levene 1963, starting pg. 435: "In 1848 the political situation in Brazil was changed by the accession to power of a liberal ministry determined to intervene in the questions of La Plata..." "...subsequent events obliged [ARC] General [Tomás] Guido to withdraw from the imperial court, and henceforth the Uruguayan-Brazilian alliance was a fact.
Perhaps Urquiza delayed for some time his pronunciamiento because he felt that it was necessary for him to join with Brazil in order to dethrone the tyrant..."

ibid. 437: "The allied army [Ejército Grande] was composed of 28,189 men distributed thus: the forces of Entre Ríos, 10,670; the forces of Corrientes, 5,260; divisions composed of men from Buenos Aires, 4,249; Brazilians 4,040; Uruguayans, 1,907; soldiers concerned with the artillery, ordinance, and all others, two thousand. [actual total listed here 28,126]"

ibid. 439: "To quote Mitre: The battle of Caseros affords the singular psychological phenomenon of other battles of its kind: it was won before it was fought; from the generals to the last soldier of both armies, both victors and vanquished evidently anticipated the outcome, as die the whole world. In whatever manner it might have been fought, it would have been won by the allies, and under the existing conditions Rosas would have lost it a hundred times....The truth is that in the battle of Caseros no one truly fought on the side of Rosas, with the exception of Colonel Chilabert. The dictator's battalions had neither opportunity nor courage to engage in formal combat, and some of those that did not mutiny either by killing their commander or by disbanding, upon arranging themselves in passive formation, placed their ramrods in the mouths of clean muskets, in order to show that they had not discharged their guns. This battle was more than a dispersion of the rosista army, it was a dissolution of that army because of inertia."

ibid. 440: "When General Urquiza addressed his proclamation [post victory in Platine War] to the people of the republic inviting them to withdraw from Rosas the management of war and foreign affairs, the provinces did not respond to the summons. General Gutiérrez, governor of Tucumán, declared against Urquiza, 'the obscure oppressor of Entre Ríos'; while the province of San Luis expressed the desire that Rosas should continue to guide the destinies of the confederation. The provinces of San Juan, Salta, Córdoba, Catamarca, Santiago del Estero, La Rioja, and Santa Fe in turn declared their adhesion to the policy of Rosas."

ibid. 443: "Two months later the governors of Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, Corrientes, and Santa Fe assembled at Palermo and decided to delegate to General Urquiza the management of foreign affairs. Among the men of Buenos Aires this selection was not received with sympathy, for General Urquiza had provoked jealousies--in honor of truth let it be said, unjustly--for, after the triumph at Caseros, he had entered the city wearing a poncho and a plush hat."

Dawson 1903, pg. 129: "...The Brazilian fleet penetrated up the river to protect his corssing, and on the 24th of December the entire force of twenty-four thousand men, the largest which up to that time had ever assembled in South America, was safely over and encamped on the dry pampas of Santa Fé. The road to Buenos Aires was open. Rosas could do nothing but wait there and trust all to the result of a single battle. On the 3rd of February he was crushingly defeated in the battle of Caseros, fought within a few miles of the city. Of the twenty thousand men he led into action half proved treacherous, and many of his principal officers betrayed him."

ibid. 126: "Rosas, however, was to fall, not by a revolution in Buenos Aires, but because his system was inconsistent with the local autonomy of the provinces. He put his partisans into power as military governors, but no bond was strong enough to keep them faithful to his interests. As soon as they were well established in their satrapies, they became jealous of their own prerogatives and of the rights of their people."

[rogerburks]

Major update made today that is hopefully stable! To do list remaining:

1. Full test for bugs. The last bug I found was an error in triggers where I needed to make a trigger more specific.

2. I need to assign photos to new events. This should be relatively easy, reusing ones that are already part of HFM.

3. Terrain bugs, which I currently do not know how to fix:
   NPC armies tend to stall in Anatuya province when it is unsettled.
   Rivadavia seems to have issues with troop navigation when unsettled. They seem to get stuck on it.

4. Is it even possible to get extended characters (such as é) into localisations? So far it seems that it is not, even though they find their way into generals' names.

[rogerburks]

to-do item 4 fixed: yes it is possible to add diacritical marks.

[rogerburks]

Potentially finished (pending testing of unusual choices):

1. The Corrientes Revolt of ~1838 governed by the Uruguay history events file
2. The Platine War of ~1850-1852 and the Argentine Constitution
   a. Entre Rios victory events (normal history)
   b. Rosas victory events (alternate history)
   c. Player choice for Argentine Confederation, Corrientes, and Entre Rios
3. The Buenos Aires Rebellion of ~1855-1861

Upcoming work:

1. Polishing localisations
2. Images, and News for the most major events
3. Testing for stability and for intended function

maybe: Improved simulation of unrest in the Confederation provinces leading to 1850

[rogerburks]

About Unitarists from https://www.encyclopedia.com/humanities/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/unitarists

"A Federalist reaction in 1827 provoked the party's fall from power. A Unitarist coup d'état conducted by General Juan Lavalle in 1828 led to the military defeat of the Unitarists in Buenos Aires. From 1829 to 1852 the party was proscribed there and its leaders exiled. In the interior of Argentina, Unitarists and Federalists waged a civil war between 1826 and 1832 and again from 1839 to 1848. General José María Paz was able to establish a Unitarist government in Córdoba (1829–1832), while General Lavalle led an unsuccessful invasion of the Argentine Confederation (1839–1841). After the Unitarist government of Corrientes was overthrown in 1848, the party was banned throughout the Confederation. New political forces emerged after 1852 that in effect replaced that party."

[rogerburks]

New fixes added today, which may bring this issue to a fully functional state. There are multiple hopefully valid paths, most of which have now been tested:

1. Historical Argentina formation: Entre Rios wins Platine War. Buenos Aires wins civil war sometime between 1852 and 1855. Argentina forms after Buenos Aires wins. Buenos Aires revolts in 1880 but loses.

2. Entre Rios remains independent: Entre Rios wins Platine War and defeats Buenos Aires in the civil war. Instead of becoming absorbed into the confederation or forming Argentina, Entre Rios remains independent and the Argentine Confederation and Corrientes are its puppets. This is a tougher than normal route, because Entre Rios' economy is only cattle and times get rough if it does not get sphered before the Grand Army money runs out.

3. Rosas wins: Argentine Confederation wins Platine War. A government (potentially a monarchy) is decided. Buenos Aires loses civil war. If the confederation is preserved instead of forming Argentina, a new chance to form Argentina arises in 1877. Buenos Aires revolts again in 1880 but loses.

4. Centennial formation: Argentina remains divided until 1906 and unites on the centennial of the May Revolution.

5. Corrientes conquers and forms Argentina (or not). This one has not been tested yet, but it should be possible for Corrientes to form Argentina if it is the overlord of the Argentine Confederation and wins the 1852-1855 civil war.

6. Argentina does not form. This should be essentially impossible for the ai, but is very possible for players, if the choice is consistently made to preserve the confederation.