Stock-Prediction

The git is about Indian Stock market prediction.

REF. RESEARCH PAPERS

Types of data available with us:

1. News data

2. Quant Data of Company listed in NSE (National Stock Exchange India)

The model is based on correlating the stock and news data.

Data Analysis:

Since, stock data is almost normally distributed we can use various statistical analysis techniques like mean, std. deviation, correlation, covariance, regression models, confidence interval, leverage, beta hedging, etc to get insights. For more information about statistical finance check out these notes

Using combination of regression models and other statistics we have developed following techniques to study key behaviour of time-series data of different equities and further relating them to corresponding news.

• Breakpoints:

This is to target certain maxima and minima in the quant data of companies, which can further be trained with news and their sentiments. Breakpoints can also be analysed to find the optimum buy and sell time for maximizing profit. Breakpoint can be characterised on the basis of skewness, kurtosis, etc. Here are the code and outputs to detect particular breakpoints.

• News impact analysis using volume:

We can determine the sentiment of the news by the change in price, as to check wether the news was positive or negative. But to measure the impact a news carry we should use volume as one of the factor. Volume of a stock is very volatile, and thus, it is difficult to analyse the impact by simply calculating percentage change in the volume itself. Here is an approach to study the impact news carry by using the volume data before and after the news, and simple statistical factors like mean and standard deviation.

• Pairs trading:

Pairs traders wait for weakness in the correlation and then go long the under-performer while simultaneously short selling the over-performer, closing the positions as the relationship returns to statistical norms. Thus, here we try to club togather assetes that are uncorrelated so that we can save ourselves from heavy loss. The basic strategy is to create a stable porfolio and keep earning on it. Here is an approach to pair assets on the basis of their correlation and covariance matrices and build reduce risks of the portfolio.

Series of steps must be followed for predicting the stock price based on news:

1. Collecting Data: Mainly company related news which are listed nse India

• Using twitter API
• Webscraping
• Crawling
• Kaggle

2. Preprocessing the data

• Cleaning the news.
• Associating company name to news article.

3. Predicting Sentiment based on previous sentiments:

• Using Classifiers present in scipy library of python: Naive bayes, Bernaulli etc.
• the Amazon Web Services(AWS) Comprehend API.
• Nltk's Sentiment Intensity Analyser
• The deeplearning model.

4. Preprocessing the data:

• Using regression to find out news effect on stock price and volume

5. Correlating news with the stock data present:

• Deeplearning model for correlating news impact on stock price and volume.
• Using LSTM for predicting stock price.

Explanation

DATA COLLECTION

We start collecting the news from different sources. We have scraped news from Moneycontrol, IIFL, Economic Times, Business Standard, Reuters and LiveMint. Attributes such as Tags, Title, Subtitle, Categories and Content along with the time and date of the news was scraped. Data from twitter is also scraped for better real-time collection of data. For more details, click here. We also scraped twitter for getting realtime data and we used crawler to get the annual reports.

PREPROCESSING DATA (Stage 1)

Cleaning the news: Stemming, chunking, chinking, stopwords removal etc. Click here for more details.

Associating company names to the news article to know which news was related to which company. Click here for more details.

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS OF NEWS

It is important to find the sentiment of each news. The sentiment value gives us a better understanding whether the news was a positive, negative, mixed or neutral one. This also helps in sorting out the neutral news. News of announcements and political parties have little role to play in building the model for forecasting. Hence these can be ignored.

• Sentiment analysis using classifiers present in scipy library of python. This classifiers should be trained on a dataset. Followed by testing the prediction. The prediction accuracy of the model was around 70% on an average. Click here for the code.

• Sentiment analysis using the Amazon Web Services Comprehend API can be found here.

• Sentiment Analysis using Nltk's Sentiment Intensity Analyser. The Sentiment intensity analyser predicts the sentiment in 4 parts positive, negative, neutral and compound. The result of this library was quite accurate and up to mark. This library is already trained library, so it helped us labeling the text with a sentiment value. Click here for the code.

• Sentiment Analysis using deeplearning model. The deep learning model requires a well labeled dataset in csv format. So first we need to get a labeled dataset (text with a sentiment label) and then train the model using that dataset and after training we can enter text in model and we can get a sentiment value of the text. Click here for the code.

The accuracy of the deeplearning model is 97%!

PREPROCESSING THE DATA (Stage 2)

We label the news with quant data regression line slope value. So for that we first open the news file and checked its date-time, now that date-time is searched in quant data. If the time is present in market hours of stock market then the text is labeled with slope value of regression line.Else if news is not in market hours then closing value of previous day and opening value of current days' regression line acts as its label. Click here for the code.

Training model based on the prepared data

Now we have two values the sentiment value of the text and slope value of quant when the news broke out in the market. We made a deep learning model such that the input was the sentiment value and the target value will be the slope value. So from this we can predict if a news about a company comes in market what will be the impact of it on the price and volume of the stocks of that company. We cannot disclose the code for this model.

AN EXAMPLE OF BUILDING A DEEP LEARNING MODEL

Predicting stock value using Quant Data only (LSTM model)

We also created a LSTM model which will be predicting a future price of stocks and this model is trained on just the stock data. The input of the model is closing value of previous day and target value was set to opening value of current day. This model was not as accurate but it can predict the possibility and flow. Click here for the code.