SIR_COVID_INDIA

The model was designed to estimate the growth of COVID-19 pandemic in India and its states. Up till now, we have developed a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model and combined it with a Susceptible-Infected-Exposed-Recovered-Dead (SIERD) model for the contagion, and we used official data provided by the Indian government up to May 9th, 2020 for quantifying the parameters of this model. The other part of our approach is that we consider all the population to be susceptible, we don’t have a metric to determine the number of exposed people in this model. Identifying the infected people's growth, recovery and death rates we use data to optimise Beta values and try to calculate an approximate R0 value. SEIRD consider five classes: Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infectious (I), Recovered (R) 103 and Dead (D). Their sum, at each time t, is the total number N of individuals in the 104 examined population, i.e. N = S + E + I + R + D. The system of equations in the SEIRD model are solved in matlab and an optimised beta value is used to accurately predict the growth