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ACOs with higher baseline expenditures were significantly more likely to generate savings than lower cost ACOs. Average quality scores for ACOs that successfully reported on quality were not different between organizations that did and did not generate savings.

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medicare-shared-savings-analysis

Berkson S, Davis S, Karp Z, Jaffery J, Flood G, Pandhi N. Medicare Shared Savings Programs: Higher cost Accountable Care Organizations are more likely to achieve savings. International Journal of Healthcare Management 2018 Aug 7.

All analyses were conducted with SAS Version 10.0 and Stata Version 13. First, we tested for associations between GSSI and each of the structure, process, and outcome variables found in Table 1 using Fisher’s exact and Chi square tests. Results were considered significant at p<0.05. Next, we conducted three multivariate regression analyses to determine if the probability of an organization generating savings was associated with per capita benchmark expenditures, minimum saving rates, or quality score results. Stepwise selection procedures were performed, including only covariates with a p-value <0.20. To assess the goodness-of-fit of the multiple regression models, the predictive fit index, adjusted R2, was assessed. If the covariates did not increase the adjusted R2 for the model, the model was reduced to exclude those variables.

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ACOs with higher baseline expenditures were significantly more likely to generate savings than lower cost ACOs. Average quality scores for ACOs that successfully reported on quality were not different between organizations that did and did not generate savings.

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