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Overhaul civilian ammunition appearance rates. #37571
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This sounds like a good way to approach it, although we should also take care to make ammo spawn in portions that make sense. You wouldn't likely find 3 12 gauge shotgun shells in someones house, you would either find 0 or find his spare box of ammo. Implementation wise, how would we spawn the ammo types in the mentioned proportions while also making loot feel right? I'm thinking perhaps make sus itemgroups for the common calibers, which have a chance to include a gun and some suitable magazines. Then one would have all of the groups set to spawn, and set their spawnchance using the data from this post. |
What would the assumed "used" or "decay" be? Time has passed, and lots of things would be used up in the time before the survivor gets there.. So this does allow for some balance outside of "loot" (untouched) locations, right? |
Current assumption is "post-cataclysm" looting by survivors will be eventually implemented. So things get looted as the game progresses. The amount of guns/ammo missing in the spawngroups would be based on estimates of how much is used up/taken on average by the people directly experiencing the cataclysm. |
Civilian ammo is typically packaged in cardboard packs and boxes; or in plastic tray-cases. Could separate between loose round spawns and packaged spawns and guarantee that unlooted commerical packages would be full (no one who looted a place would just take a couple rounds out) while looted packages in homes and other places will have random amounts similar to household chemical spawns. |
Yes the number of rounds would be divided by the appearance rate, so in a gun store the boxes wouldn't spawn in these ratios, the rounds would. My plan for achieving this distribution is to run a test that runs over an overmap or so worth of mapgen and tallies up the number of rounds spawned. Probably the first cut would be to determine a set of ratios for all the rounds based on the above data, then see where that gets us because the chaotic interaction of item groups and mapgen is going to make the final outcome unpredictable. From there it's just a matter of tweaking those numbers until the final spawn rates come out right. |
We might also want to think about doing some kind of estimate of how much and what ammo is used during the cataclysm itself. I might imagine not a lot of the .22 ended up being used when shit hit the fan, and the rare collector guns also not seeing much use, but the 9mm and .223 might have seen a lot of use before the end really hit. |
After polishing up that top 10 list and looking at some in-game numbers, I REALLY need to have some additional adjustment for the remaining 30-odd calibres of civilian ammunition, because the kind of naive thing to do is to evenly divide the remaining "unreported" proportion of calibres among them, but that's definitely wrong as some of them are probably barely off the bottom of the top 10 list and others are almost unheard of. |
This issue has been automatically marked as stale because it has not had recent activity. It will be closed if no further activity occurs. Thank you for your contributions. Please do not 'bump' or comment on this issue unless you are actively working on it. Stale issues, and stale issues that are closed are still considered. |
See http://knowledgeglue.com/what-are-the-most-popular-calibers-in-the-us/ for additional potentially useful data, though it will need to be massaged a bit since it is by units sold, so we need to make assumptions about how many rounds are typical. |
Here's the data from knowledgeglue tablulated
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Once you have this data finalized I encourage you to record the data and sources in the repo for future reference. |
Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe.
Ammunition appears in game in essentially arbitrary ratios, leading to an exaggerated difficulty when finding matching guns and ammunition.
In the opposite direction, particularly rare ammunition is not remotely as rare as it should be.
Describe the solution you'd like
Spawn guns and ammo (but focusing on ammo here) in representative ratios.
Specifically I've done some figuring with some hopefully representative data points and come up with some distributions for the most common ammunition types, and item lists referencing ammunition drops can spawn ammo in those ratios.
EDIT: This is a summary, the full table is below, but it's too unwieldy so I'm putting this summary here.
Another even more simplified tabulation:
Points of interest
9mm and .22 make up 40% of all civilian ammunition.
.223 is a distant but significant third at 9.5%.
.45 and .40 are an even more distant 4th and 5th, but (along with the rarer .38) bring "medium pistol rounds" up to 30% of civilian ammunition.
12ga is sitting at a rare but not incredibly rare 2.6%
Intermediate rounds (.223, 7.62 and 5.56) sum to a respectable 16%.
Traditional rifle rounds are quite low at just over 2.5%
"and the rest" is 27%, which spread evenly across the 33 remaining ammo types is going to make them incredibly rare ( 0.8% ).
Side note, this is civilian ammunition, not police or armed forces, which will follow a totally different distribution and need their own sources.
Data
Retrieved a (hopefully representative) snapshot of sales stats from https://www.luckygunner.com/labs/2013-ammo-stats/
Retrieved prices per round from the same site.
2012 data
2013 data
Process
All steps repeated for 2012 and 2013 data.
Multiplied proportion of revenue by price per round to get "Rounds per dollar of revenue".
Summed "Rounds per dollar of revenue" figures to get "aggregate rounds per dollar of revenue".
Scaled Aggregate rounds per dollar of revenue by 78% to get "Adjusted rounds per dollar of revenue".
Divided each "Rounds per dollar of revenue" by "adjusted rounds per dollar of revenue" to get "proportion of rounds sold".
Averaged together "proportion of rounds sold" from 2012 and 2013 for each calibre.
Additionally, summed "Proportion of rounds sold" to determine how much of the market is covered, which yields the 31%/22%/26% remainder for "proportion rounds not in the top 10".
Describe alternatives you've considered
All the other options are totally subjective, and I'm not a fan. If anyone finds other qualitative sources for this I'd love to try and incorporate them.
Possibly we can bucket the remaining ammo types into low and high or low/med/high to put a little extra scaling on them instead of just having them evenly represented.
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