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v1.22.0 — the IQ ladder priced in, and native MTP breaks the MoE-speculation drought
The IQ ladder priced in, and the speculation map's first version qualifier.
- IQ formats are measured, not guessed (prereg #70): FORMAT_EBW gains IQ2_XS 51.1 / IQ3_S
61.1 / IQ3_XXS 68.3 / IQ4_NL 117.0 - the divide is CODEBOOK vs not, and IQ4_NL's kernel is
Q4_0-class. The format advice now offers IQ4_NL (+14% over Q4_K_M at the same size class WITH
imatrix quality) and warns off codebook IQ for VRAM decode on pre-Ampere. The staked split-arm
retrodiction MISSED and is published with its diagnosis (U-19 refuted as hypothesized; the
residual is structural, U-20 - which now also carries public out-of-sample support from a
four-point residency curve on RDNA3). - Native MTP is the first positive MoE-split speculation (prereg #71): models with a
trained-in MTP head (Qwen3.6 class) measure +11.4% at --spec-draft-n-max 2 (93.2%
acceptance) on the expert-split placement where every external draft loses. K MUST stay at 2:
K=4 measured 0.61x on the same pair - the expert-union tax is alive, the head just out-accepts
it at short drafts. speculation_advice prints the exception with its limits. - Register at 86 entries: E-07 (colibri cross-engine confirmations), the 61-entry public
benchmark corpus + audit script ship in-tree (weights/public_bench_audit.py), and the
draft-note %% display fix.