Options Decision Engine V3

Options Decision Engine V3 — a deterministic pipeline from a real option chain to a scored, explained recommendation, with every intermediate decision shown, not buried in a black box.

Expiration Engine

Real, listed expirations are discovered live and scored on six components (Event Fit, Liquidity, Quote Coverage, Bid/Ask Quality, DTE Suitability, Data Quality) — never a hard-coded "nearest expiration." Auto mode selects the highest-scoring real candidate; Manual mode recomputes every contract, strike, premium, and strategy from any real listed expiration the user picks. Alternatives are never hidden.

Risk Profiles

Selected per decision — Conservative, Moderate, Aggressive — each with real, different liquidity gates and default risk-budget utilization. Confirmed live: the identical snapshot/budget produces a genuinely different recommended category and position size across the three, never just a cosmetic label. Uncovered/naked short options are never a default recommendation at any profile.

Probability Analytics

Three deliberately distinct metrics, never collapsed into one number: Historical Compatibility (real sample size, e.g. "100.0% (25/25 events)"), Estimated Probability (same empirical basis, Wilson 95% confidence interval, a Low sample confidence flag below N=20), and True Strategy Win Rate — honestly "Unavailable" until this project actually captures real settled option entry/exit prices, never substituted or estimated.

Strategy Ranking V2

9 weighted scoring components (Direction Fit, Volatility Fit, Expiration Fit, Breakeven Fit, Historical Fit, Risk/Reward, Risk Profile Fit, Liquidity, Data Quality), summing to 100. Reconstructed historical-last pricing is explicitly labeled and distinguished from real bid/ask throughout.

Explanation Engine

Every recommendation carries Why This Strategy, Why This Expiration, Why These Strikes, and Why Not Alternative — a real numeric comparison against the runner-up (premium cost ratio, max loss difference, driving score component, historical compatibility difference), never generic or duplicated text.

E2E Testing

Mandatory Playwright suite, 8/8 passing, deterministic — a dedicated fixture ticker and a DB-backed fixture options provider give the suite zero live-IBKR dependency, safe in CI. Covers score-driven Auto expiration selection, Manual expiration recomputation, Risk Profile round-tripping, budget sizing within its risk cap, honest probability/win-rate disclosure, numeric Why Not Alternative content, and no-fabrication for an unresearched ticker.

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Testing: 925 backend tests passing (ruff clean, mypy clean), frontend TypeScript/ESLint/build clean, Playwright 8/8, full Docker Compose stack building and booting green in CI.

Not investment advice — see the README's Limitations and Disclaimer sections.