v0.3.7 — Evidence-Calibrated Scores & Floors, Usage-Aware Simulation & Ability-Floor Chart

AgentCompass v0.3.7 calibrates model scores and ability floors from public benchmarks, adds a usage-aware routing simulation, keeps frontier work on frontier models without silent downgrades, and adds an ability-floor chart to the tray.

• Evidence-calibrated model scores: Model rows without a measurement are scored from LMArena first (WebDev and Agent boards, fitted to the anchor tiers), then Artificial Analysis or task benchmarks; rows that still have no measurement carry score_estimated. Effort curves are recalibrated from Artificial Analysis effort data. A free-usage bonus is declared per account in public data (Dot only) instead of applying to every free model.
• Ability floors from evidence: The routine, hard and coupled floors (2.3 / 3.1 / 3.6) come from SWE-bench Verified success by fix-time bucket, cross-checked against LMArena Agent sessions. The tool-execution route has its own hard floor (2.7). Cheap models get the simple work they handle, and the floors are validated on stranger account sets, not just this machine.
• Frontier work stays on frontier models: The frontier floor is 4.2 (GPT-6 Astra's anchor tier), so each vendor's top subscription model qualifies. Critical frontier work needs 4.3. When nothing at or above the floor has quota, the plan waits or asks the user (next_reset) rather than routing to a lower tier. Models whose harness cannot set an effort declare fixed_effort (Grok Bot scores at Medium).
• Usage-aware routing simulation (route_simulation.py): grid, explain and replay feed usage through the same pipeline roll uses, sweeping usage states (ample, each family scarce, 5h-only, stale), machine vs fresh modes, and stranger account sets (Claude Pro, Codex Plus/Pro, Antigravity, Magpie pool, OpenCode free).
• Pool demand fix: A Magpie pool of N subscriptions forecasts demand against N x 100% and uses the later reset, so a pool no longer looks free when its remaining exceeds one account's allowance.
• Tray ability-floor chart: The strategy page shows every model's ability at each effort against the floors, the route floors and the critical gates. Floors can be dragged or typed, with a live preview of which models gain or lose eligibility. Changes are saved as numbers only to accounts-override.json, and "restore defaults" removes them.
• Release verification F10: The foreign-machine harness verifies all of the above from the installed wheel. Each check is shown to fail against broken data.

The Windows tray installer is unsigned; Windows SmartScreen may warn on first launch. See packaging/SIGNING.md.

Status: alpha. Customize the reference fleet and model calibration for your own subscriptions.