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[FEATURE] Schum rating prediction #1782
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Table of the contribution of the experience of players in positions to the line ratings.
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*w - only with the indication "to the flank" From the table it can be seen that the Midfielder in the central slot (C-IM) invests his experience in the ratings of all 7 lines. And vertically- all 10 field players are invested in the Midfield (PM) rating, regardless of the placement. |
Values of the contribution of experience to the ratings of different lines. Eff(Exp)
K is the contribution coefficient of experience to the level of experience. Here we see that the experience "Colossal" (Titanic) gives the effect of 95% of the effect of the experience "Divine" (Divine). Further, before calculating the ratings, the contributions of all players, taking into account the experience, are added up And only then are multiplied by the effects of common modifiers: team spirit, coach mentality taking into account tactics, confidence, mood for the match, tactics odds. As a result, it turns out that the maximum impact of experience has on the Midfield line. that is, they will give an increase of almost 7 whole Semi-Protection skills. |
New! The Influence of Team Spirit.
The value of the team spirit "Paradise on Earth!" can be from 10.0 to 12.05 But at the first update, as well as when the CD falls due to the transfer, the KD value becomes 9.5, regardless of the leadership of the coach and the presence / level of the psychologist. A drop in Team Spirit when buying players.
The influence of confidence.
On Saturday's update, if the confidence was maximum (excessive), with a psych of level 5, confidence takes a value of 8.6 (excessive +0.6) with an efficiency of 1.205 |
How to prediction in any online color game with phone |
team spirit influence differs a lot between the different concepts
looks like a too low team spirit factor in HO calculation. |
in HO 8 i want to refactor the rating prediction feature.
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Great!
Hartelijke groet,
Patrick
Op 19 mrt. 2023 om 10:41 heeft wsbrenk ***@***.***> het volgende geschreven:
in HO 8 i want to refactor the rating prediction feature.
* the user should be able to select between more than 2 rating prediction models
* the user should be able to adjust the models fitting parameters more easily
* the user should be able to add his own prediction model more easily
* different kind of fitting formulas should be provided to the user
* Polynomials of any degree
* Logarithmic
* min/max
(to be continued)
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Stamina formula:again from Schum' thread: https://www89.hattrick.org/Forum/Read.aspx?t=17404127&n=38&v=4 Dynamics of the influence of stamina on the player's contribution to the match ratings The match in Hettrick consists of 5-minute segments, within each of which the player's contribution to the ratings does not change. The 1st and 2nd halves consist of 9 segments, extra time consists of 6.
Time - time interval The formula for changing the player's contribution to the ratings
R = Kt + 23/7 * St + P * T * (27/70*St - 5.95)
R = Kt + 23 - 3.25 * P * T + (St -7) * 100/7 R is the percentage of the player's contribution to the ratings, visually rounded to the nearest integer. The accuracy of this formula is the sixth decimal place. |
Today, a colleague of mine gives me the idea of using Groovy as an alternative scripting language for this use case. |
@tychobrailleur there is now a merge request implementing the schum formula. TODOs:
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Found in Schum's thread: Retreat to the defensive. From the rules: In some situations, teams are not affected by this effect. For example, if a team is given the instruction "Match of the season", then they will not move back even with a significant advantage. The same thing happens in the finals of the National Cup, World Cup and Hatttrick Masters and in the last round of the season in league games. It is said quite clearly and accurately. I will focus only on a couple of nuances:
In total, the following coefficients are obtained from nominal ratings:
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Conditional training. As a possible alternative to HTMS, I will give an assessment of the player's level in conditional training. Conditional training is a full training of a 17-year-old player by a good coach with 2 level 5 assistants and 10% stamina. DropLvl is taken into account in the skill leveling schedule from the age of 17 + 0. For myself, I consider the basic 100% level - 50 conditional training sessions at the 17 + 0 uspool. This corresponds to all skills except Gk level 5.6 The age of 28+0 corresponds to receiving 161.55 conditional training, starting from the age of 17+0.
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* team analyzer filter handles challenger cup as friendlies now * logging RatingPredictionManager * Speciality.java->specialty * rating logging * refactoring RatingPredictionManager * #1782 start schum rating * #1782 schum rating * #1782 RatingPredictionManager teamspirit formula * #1805 release_notes.md * typo * #1782 rating refactoring * #1782 rating refactoring * #1782 rating refactoring * #1782 add experience calculations to strenght cache * init ratingprediction.json * json preciction definition * ratingprediction.json * start HO7.1 * start HO8.0 * continue * Release/7 (#1859) * start HO7.1 * #1856 fix currency of secondary teams * #1856 fix currency of secondary teams --------- Co-authored-by: wsbrenk <zissener-weg-brenk.de> * #1857 fix playername getter in MatchHighlightsTable (#1860) Co-authored-by: wsbrenk <zissener-weg-brenk.de> * #1861 fix exception in GoalDiffCriteria (#1864) Co-authored-by: wsbrenk <zissener-weg-brenk.de> * Fix click on “Last Match” column when it has been moved. (#1863) The “Last Match” column is clickable, and opens: - The match in Hattrick when shift-clicking, - The match in HO when double-clicking. This commit also adds some comment to clarify the behaviour. * Minor UI improvement in teamAnalyzer. (#1867) This adds a bit of padding around the check boxes on the teamAnalyser panel, and centers the automatic / manual radio buttons. It also cleans up code a bit, in particular in lineup assistant. Probably more effort to come on that front. * #1858 (#1869) * #1858 debug date time parsing * #1858 debug currency parsing * #1858 using Helper.formatCurrency * #1858 Player.baseWage reset setter getter (not used for now, but senseful for the future) * #1858 Player.baseWage reset setter getter (not used for now, but senseful for the future) * #1858 translate comments in Helper.java * #1858 remove unused imports in HODateTime.java (add some comments) * #1858 fix Player.setExpiryDate, use localized DateTimeFormatter * #1858 fix PlayerConverter add comment explaining offsSpecialty * #1858 fix PlayerConverter remove old commented methods * #1858 fix PlayerConverter.parseLocalDateTime * #1858 PlayerConverter scan wage * #1858 PlayerConverter scan skill refactored * #1858 PlayerConverter scan wage fix indexRowWarning * Fixes deadline date parsing in Transfer Scout. --------- Co-authored-by: Sébastien Le Callonnec <sebastien@weblogism.com> * refactor rating prediction * #1873 (#1874) * #1873 fix MatchAndLineupSelectionPanel.updateStyleOfPlayComboBox nt team selection * #1873 release_notes.md * ratingprediction formulas (wip) * #1878 (#1879) * fix OnlineWorker.downloadLastLineup * MyConnector.downloadPlayerDetails include match info * #1878 release_notes.md * #1878 show last match date of nt team players * RatingPredictionManager remove debug logs * new class RatingPredictionModel * new class RatingPredictionModel * #1881 (#1882) * some cleanup * #1881 add undocumented goal difference criteria * #1881 add undocumented goal difference criteria release_notes.md * #1881 debug worlflow (#1883) * some cleanup * #1881 add undocumented goal difference criteria * #1881 add undocumented goal difference criteria release_notes.md * #1881 fix workflow * RatingPredictionModel (wip) * Release ho7.1 (#1887) * release_notes.md update translaation statistics * release_notes.md * release HO 7.1 * release_notes.md * RatingPredictionModel * #1889 download new trainer info from player details (#1890) * RatingPredictionModel (wip) * RatingPredictionModel (wip) * stable 7.2 (#1893) * rating prediction (wip) * rating prediction (wip) * #1899 (#1900) * #1899 training recalculation recovers deleted skill ups * #1901 PlayerDetailsPanel reset homegrown icon (#1902) * RatingPredictionModel (wip) * RatingPredictionModel (wip) * RatingPredictionModel (wip) * RatingPredictionModel (wip) * RatingPredictionModel (wip) * RatingPredictionModel (wip) * calcTeamSpirit * fix RatingChartData * fix RatingChartData * fix RatingChartData * #1849 (#1912) * ModuleConfigTable.saveConfig * Update install4j version. (#1906) This is an attempt at fixing issue #1849 by updating install4j to the latest version, as it is unclear at this point what is causing the install to hang on some MacOS machines. (cherry picked from commit d2a5b0b) * release-dev INSTALL4J_HOME (#1907) (cherry picked from commit 628d685) * https://github.com/ho-dev/HattrickOrganizer (#1911) (cherry picked from commit 823bfa0) * #1849 release_notes.md --------- Co-authored-by: Sébastien Le Callonnec <sebastien@weblogism.com> * wip * #1913 fix Player.getMotherclubId * fit values of RatingPredictionModel.calcSector * RatingPredictionModel.calcRatingSectorScale * RatingPredictionModel.calcPlayerScale (wip) * Player.getPositionRating * copyrights * getPlayerMatchAverageRating * fix edit SubstitutionEditView hatstats update * fix Substitution.pos * fix Substitution.setRoleId * fix RatingPredictionModel.calcStamina * tune RatingPredictionModel.getRatingSectorScaleFactor * fix enum coding style * read.me * adjust player rating to hatstats formula (factor 3 for midfield contribution) * implement schum rank * tychobrailleur's review * release_notes.md --------- Co-authored-by: wsbrenk <zissener-weg-brenk.de> Co-authored-by: Sébastien Le Callonnec <sebastien@weblogism.com>
this is from Schum's thread
Midfield rating multipliers.
As usual, let's start with the coordinate system.
If you remove all players in the installer, then all ratings will be visually displayed as 0.75
In reality, it is 0, or "absent".
Next, I will give a table
and so on, ad infinitum...
And now the values of the PM multipliers:
*the exact value of the MOTS multiplier is 83/75=1.10(6)
The values of the remaining multipliers do not contain more than 2 decimal places.
Away - away match
Derby - derby away, national team at home
Home - Home Match
PIC - Half Strength Game
MOTS - Match of the Season
CA - Counter-Attack Tactics
LS - Tactics "Long Strikes"
The unwritten manual has a similar table 17236276.15
Now the built-in rating calculator allows you to find refined values that are very close.
As a follow-up to the previous post, I'll quote downgrade defense and attack ratings for different tactics:
Protection ratings:
0.85 - The tactic "Attack on the flank" reduces the rating of the defense in the center by 15%
0.85 - "Attack in the center" tactic reduces the ratings of the defense on the flanks by 15%
0.93 - The "Play Creative" tactic reduces all protection ratings by 7%
Attack ratings:
0.96 - Long-Range Strike Tactics Reduce All Attack Ratings by 4%
The values are precise, not rounded. There are no decimal places below.
Retreat to the defense.
From the Rules:
A team that has an advantage of 2 goals or more starts to slow down and focus more on defense. This effect increases if the team scores more: each goal reduces the attack by 9% and increases the defense by 7.5%. If the score difference is reduced, the previous attack and defense change is canceled. If the difference between goals scored and conceded reaches 8, the team's ratings cease to change.
In some situations, teams are not affected by this effect. For example, if a team is given the "Match of the Season" directive, they will not step back even with a significant advantage. The same thing happens in the finals of the national cup, the World Cup and the Hatttrick Masters and in the last round of the season in league games.
Said quite clearly and accurately.
I will dwell only on a couple of nuances:
That is, with each subsequent goal, the defense increases by 8.0%, and the attack decreases by 9.5%
In total, the following coefficients are obtained from nominal ratings:
The impact of the form on the ratings:
The impact of experience.
So, one of the toughest nuts in HT is experience.
To understand exactly how experience affects match ratings, first of all it is necessary to understand which variables affect BEFORE the experience (and do not affect the effect of experience), and which - AFTER.
In Hattric, the picture is as follows:
(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nDQNyU14aMiqmQXID5rnjb_UBY8du4BLgicOvsbm9ow/edit#gid=0)
That is(S+Eff(L))*K(F)*C
And only then does experience have an impact.
Thus, all the indicators that we took into account above no longer affect the effect of experience in the future.
How does the experience itself affect?
The experiment adds to the above value (S+Eff(L))*K(F) * C * K(P) the effect of the experience Eff(Exp), which depends on:
2 means that in the rankings of different lines, the same experience adds a different number of "conditional skills".
Contribution of the "Divine" experience to the ratings of different lines:
p.3 means that if a player's position affects a given rating line (for example, the winger's pass (Wg) affects the central attack), then the winger's experience is fully invested in the central attack. And if none of the winger's skills invest in the attack of the opposite flank, then the experience of the winger does NOT affect the rating of the attack of the opposite flank.
Accordingly, the instructions to the players do not affect the contribution of experience to the ratings of the lines.
PS: but there is an exception: the experience of a left (right) central defender will give an increase in the rating of the attack on the left (right) only with the indication "to the flank".
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