v1.0.0

The first stable release, covering everything Python Prophet 1.4.0 does except plotting. From now
on, breaking changes to the public API wait for a new major version. Each kind of bad input now fails with its own typed error instead of one
InputValidationError, so code that catches that error or reads its input field must move to
the new errors.

Changed

• Typed input errors. InputValidationError and ValidationInput are removed. Each kind of
  input has its own error, with a fixed list of reason values: ObservationError,
  PredictionInputError, OptionsError, FutureTimestampsError, UncertaintyOptionsError,
  EvaluationPlanError, MetricOptionsError, SearchOptionsError and HoldoutInputError.

  • Every input error keeps issues and message. Errors about rows also name the first
    rejected row with rowIndex, field and name, and the others give its location in path.
  • Rejected shapes have reason: "invalid-shape", and an empty history "empty".
  • When the input has several kinds of problems, the error reports the first kind found and
    every problem of that kind.
  • SearchOptionsError names a failing candidate with candidateIndex and keeps the original
    error in cause, which isn't saved when a report is encoded.
  • The InputError union and isInputError match any of them, for example with
    Effect.catchIf.
  • Holdout reports record a candidate's input error as its error and reason. Saved reports
    that recorded an InputValidationError no longer decode.

  See Input errors.

Fixed

• Automatic changepoints now match Prophet when a candidate lands exactly between two rows.
  NumPy's linspace divides before it multiplies, and Effect Prophet multiplied first, so the two
  could round to different rows and move a changepoint by one. On one 30-row history this changed
  the trend by about 0.82; it now matches Python's.
• predictUncertainty and predictWithIntervals given around 150,000 rows or more crashed with
  RangeError: Maximum call stack size exceeded. They now fail with a PredictionError whose
  reason is "simulation-limit", like any request over the 10,000-row limit.
• decodeEvaluationReport froze the caller's own selected.options object, so editing it
  afterwards threw. It now returns a frozen copy.

Documentation

• The tracing guide,
  README and home page now say that the attributes Effect Prophet sets contain no user data. A
  failed span still carries its error, and exporters such as OtlpTracer send its message and
  stack trace, which can name your fields.
• Benchmark pages no longer compare speeds when the two libraries do different work: Bayesian
  predict, uncertainty with MAP or Bayesian fits, and evaluation cases. They show "Not compared:
  different work" with a note, and keep both raw times.
• Regressors explains the units of
  additive and multiplicative coefficients, and that mode defaults to seasonalityMode.
• The seasonality and events guides no longer say an individual event takes its own mode.
  holidaysMode sets one mode for every event.
• Coming from Python maps
  mcmc_samples to mcmc, and What's different
  notes that cross-validation has no counterpart to extra_output_columns.
• The Bayesian guide and the Python differences page separate mcmc option limits, which fail
  with an OptionsError, from the limit on kept values, which fails with
  FittingError("sampling-limit").

Verification against Python Prophet

• A new changepoint fixture checks a history whose automatic changepoint candidate falls on a
  rounding tie.
• Refreshed benchmarks time logistic Bayesian fits at 4–5 times as long as Python's native
  CmdStan, not the 3–4 times reported for 0.7.0: that run timed Python's slowest logistic case
  while the machine was sleeping. The
  Bayesian guide now says so. Linear
  and flat fits still take about as long as Python's.

Full Changelog: v0.7.0...v1.0.0